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Author Topic: "points" is there really a point  (Read 6763 times)

Offline BULLBLASTER

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #45 on: May 09, 2019, 07:16:43 PM »
Isnt there info out there that shows what points people have when they draw some of these tags ??? I believe the majority was between 10 & 20 points which tells me the squared helps the folks with more points.

Id like to see that if there is. I havent been putting in a real long time I might stop

Remember you are buying a chance at drawing the tag, not just a point.
Youíll never draw if you donít apply. People draw with low points every year.
well not every year.  Some are on an every other year cycle
:bash: I didnít mean the same person every year. But I guess some people just get it.  :chuckle:

Offline Bullkllr

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #46 on: May 09, 2019, 07:20:51 PM »
I now have a headache.
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Offline carlyoungs

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #47 on: May 09, 2019, 07:58:52 PM »
I responded earlier in this thread.  It is a lottery and some what cheap gamble in my opinion.  Pretty much all categories and throw in some oils.  What does that cost? A half days work to a full days work depending on pay.
The thing is if you draw you get a tag that most people could fill without too much effort. If you dont draw you still get over the counter hunting for a chance to fill your tag. I would say if you are a dedicated hunter you have a pretty good chance at filling your tag or getting a close chance to.
The price for the apps and tags to apply really isn't that bad if you think about it. Apply for decent hunts, and draw odds, maybe get drawn and if not hunt hard and fill your otc tag. And if that doesn't work out for you drive over to Idaho and pay $600 bucks and tag out.

Offline ljsommer

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #48 on: May 10, 2019, 06:59:29 AM »
And if that doesn't work out for you drive over to Idaho and pay $600 bucks and tag out.

That's my plan in 2020!

Offline DOUBLELUNG

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #49 on: May 10, 2019, 02:59:19 PM »
Regardless of how the drawings are done, odds of drawing a high-demand permit are and will continue to be low.  If I were to make one change, it would be to remove from the big game pamphlet the average number of points of successful applicants the previous year, this greatly contributes to the misconception that applicants are "getting close to drawing" when their points approach or exceed that number. 

My own approach is to not buy ghost points, I only apply for hunts.  If I know I couldn't wouldn't be able to do that hunt, I save a few bucks on the special permit application for that hunt.  It doesn't bother me at all that as a result I have worse odds in future years, higher numbers of points do improve your odds but they all remain incredibly long is the reality.  That the points I accrue give me slightly better odds is like saying your odds of winning the Powerball is better than mine because I bought one ticket and you bought 20.
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Offline X-Force

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #50 on: May 10, 2019, 04:16:47 PM »
For premium most permits your odds do not increase every year with the accumulation of points they actually remain the same or go down because everyone else is also increasing in points with no reduction of applications so that your points difference as a total sum of points actually remains the same or goes down.

 People say that because we do not have a preference point system we do not have point creep but we do have a point creep because there are not enough permits turn over the number of applications.
People get offended at nothing at all. So, speak your mind and be unapologetic.

Offline Bob33

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #51 on: May 10, 2019, 04:29:50 PM »
For premium most permits your odds do not increase every year with the accumulation of points they actually remain the same or go down because everyone else is also increasing in points with no reduction of applications so that your points difference as a total sum of points actually remains the same or goes down.

 People say that because we do not have a preference point system we do not have point creep but we do have a point creep because there are not enough permits turn over the number of applications.
That is generally true for those in the upper ends of the point ranges. For applicants at the lower end they do increase year-to-year. For example an applicant with one point has one name in that hat; the second year he has four: a 300% increase. (Thatís also why those at the upper end donít increase, because of the exponential increase in points from those to the lower end.) It seems that the break-even point is usually about the middle of the points range.

That said it is still true that someone with 20 points who applies will have better odds next year with 21 points than if he hadnít applied.
Nature. It's cheaper than therapy.

Offline SteelheadTed

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #52 on: May 14, 2019, 12:58:52 PM »
Except everyone else has squared points as well, the amount of "entries" changes but not the odds.

I'm not sure I understand.  With more points your odds improve BECAUSE you have more entries.
What I mean is that your odds don't change because of the squaring. The thing is that as your points go up, so does everyone else's points that don't draw, the proportion stays the same versus everyone else in the pool. The fact that the permit numbers are dwindling and we can't even clear out the max point holders means that as the years go by, the value of your points actually is dwindling.

Your last sentence is really getting at point creep, a related but different issue.  Squaring does increase your odds as you acquire points and is more advantageous for those with higher points (since it is an exponential increase over time).  If you want to argue odds are getting worse overtime since more people are entering the draws than are exiting the drawings (because they drew a tag), I agree and that is happening all over the West.  But that isn't related to real odds necessarily.  If I have one point and you have 4, you have 16 times better odds then me.  Squaring does make a difference (though I think serves to discourage new hunters in the process).
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Offline SuperX

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #53 on: May 14, 2019, 01:12:49 PM »
Except everyone else has squared points as well, the amount of "entries" changes but not the odds.

I'm not sure I understand.  With more points your odds improve BECAUSE you have more entries.
What I mean is that your odds don't change because of the squaring. The thing is that as your points go up, so does everyone else's points that don't draw, the proportion stays the same versus everyone else in the pool. The fact that the permit numbers are dwindling and we can't even clear out the max point holders means that as the years go by, the value of your points actually is dwindling.

Your last sentence is really getting at point creep, a related but different issue.  Squaring does increase your odds as you acquire points and is more advantageous for those with higher points (since it is an exponential increase over time).  If you want to argue odds are getting worse overtime since more people are entering the draws than are exiting the drawings (because they drew a tag), I agree and that is happening all over the West.  But that isn't related to real odds necessarily.  If I have one point and you have 4, you have 16 times better odds then me.  Squaring does make a difference (though I think serves to discourage new hunters in the process).
Squaring weeds out the 1 pointers, new hunters like you say.  If I've got 4 points I'll have 16 chances.  If I've got 8 points I'll have 64 chances.  Without squaring, my 8 points would be twice your 4 points, after squaring it is 4 times more than your 16 points.

Offline beauhunter

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #54 on: May 14, 2019, 02:08:47 PM »
Yes it gives you more chances to get  a lower "assigned" number to enter the drawing, but does not increase chances of being drawn

Online bobcat

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #55 on: May 14, 2019, 02:25:50 PM »
Yes it gives you more chances to get  a lower "assigned" number to enter the drawing, but does not increase chances of being drawn

It sure does increase your chances. A low number, relative to other applicants' lowest number is HOW you get drawn for a particular hunt. If you don't think squaring points increases a person's chance of being drawn, then you don't understand how the draw works.

Offline blackveltbowhunter

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #56 on: May 14, 2019, 03:18:35 PM »
 :yeah:

    Besides not understanding how the draw works ( which I will not attempt to explain ) I think there is confusion regarding some of the lingo. I will do my best to add to the confusion :chuckle:

   Preference Point. Not applicable in Washington.  The more points you have the smaller the pool of applicants you are entered into for a given tag. This can vary greatly from hunt to hunt. For highly coveted hunts odds with many applicants often times getting to the pool itself is impossible much less being chosen. Point Creep is becoming very visible.

   Bonus Point. Same Pool as all other applicants. But more opportunities to get picked from that pool. Point creep is still an issue, because although your odds go up, so do every other person entering the pool. 
   
   Point Creep. Occurs when significant applicants are not moved through the pool and begins to significantly decrease odds of drawing a given tag. IE..... OIL, or highly coveted units or rut hunts. Because so few tags are drawn, there are many many applicants with large numbers of points entering the pool.

  PERSONAL ODDS VS OVERALL ODDS!!! This seems to be a biggie..... If you have decent amounts of points and are looking for the simple solution here it is. This year will likely be your best odds of drawing the hunt your applying for! Don't ghost point. Next year OVERALL odds of drawing a particular coveted hunt will likely decrease because out of the 100 applicants that applied this year only one left the pool. (Hopefully it was someone with more points than you, and it wont be it will be the guy who was first time ever, never set foot in weneha :chuckle:) And Next year there will be 99 folks going in with squared points pushing OVERALL odds back down again.  However YOUR odds with 10 points are 100x better than the new guy with 1. So your points are working great to give you an advantage over others with less points, but they are lacking at working to improve your odds of drawing a particular hunt. Especially if that hunt is a coveted permit.

 

Offline SteelheadTed

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #57 on: May 15, 2019, 12:34:11 PM »
Yes it gives you more chances to get  a lower "assigned" number to enter the drawing, but does not increase chances of being drawn

That is precisely why you would have better odds, because you have a lower number.  I am trying to understand what some folks don't understand about this but the math is clear, more points = better odds.
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Offline Stein

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #58 on: May 15, 2019, 12:48:56 PM »
Yes it gives you more chances to get  a lower "assigned" number to enter the drawing, but does not increase chances of being drawn

That is precisely why you would have better odds, because you have a lower number.  I am trying to understand what some folks don't understand about this but the math is clear, more points = better odds.

That is true, but it is more nuanced.  0.2% is better odds than 0.15% mathematically, but in reality it is the same thing.  Also, your "better" odds go down over time.  The misunderstanding is that by accumulating points, you are moving to a point in time where your odds go up until you have great or even guaranteed odds to draw a certain tag.  The reality as several have said is that your odds are likely better now at X points than they will be in 10 years with X+10 points.  That's what 95% of hunters don't understand.

Offline Woodchuck

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #59 on: May 15, 2019, 01:00:38 PM »
Yes it gives you more chances to get  a lower "assigned" number to enter the drawing, but does not increase chances of being drawn

That is precisely why you would have better odds, because you have a lower number.  I am trying to understand what some folks don't understand about this but the math is clear, more points = better odds.

That is true, but it is more nuanced.  0.2% is better odds than 0.15% mathematically, but in reality it is the same thing.  Also, your "better" odds go down over time.  The misunderstanding is that by accumulating points, you are moving to a point in time where your odds go up until you have great or even guaranteed odds to draw a certain tag.  The reality as several have said is that your odds are likely better now at X points than they will be in 10 years with X+10 points.  That's what 95% of hunters don't understand.
Thank you for making the words I couldn't without sounding like an overly sarcastic jerk.  :tup:
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