Free: Contests & Raffles.

Quote from: BULLBLASTER on May 09, 2019, 03:25:31 PMQuote from: Buckhunter24 on May 09, 2019, 02:07:27 PMQuote from: kentrek on May 09, 2019, 02:03:18 PMIsnt there info out there that shows what points people have when they draw some of these tags I believe the majority was between 10 & 20 points which tells me the squared helps the folks with more points.Id like to see that if there is. I havent been putting in a real long time I might stopRemember you are buying a chance at drawing the tag, not just a point. You’ll never draw if you don’t apply. People draw with low points every year. well not every year. Some are on an every other year cycle

Quote from: Buckhunter24 on May 09, 2019, 02:07:27 PMQuote from: kentrek on May 09, 2019, 02:03:18 PMIsnt there info out there that shows what points people have when they draw some of these tags I believe the majority was between 10 & 20 points which tells me the squared helps the folks with more points.Id like to see that if there is. I havent been putting in a real long time I might stopRemember you are buying a chance at drawing the tag, not just a point. You’ll never draw if you don’t apply. People draw with low points every year.

Quote from: kentrek on May 09, 2019, 02:03:18 PMIsnt there info out there that shows what points people have when they draw some of these tags I believe the majority was between 10 & 20 points which tells me the squared helps the folks with more points.Id like to see that if there is. I havent been putting in a real long time I might stop

Isnt there info out there that shows what points people have when they draw some of these tags I believe the majority was between 10 & 20 points which tells me the squared helps the folks with more points.

And if that doesn't work out for you drive over to Idaho and pay $600 bucks and tag out.

For premium most permits your odds do not increase every year with the accumulation of points they actually remain the same or go down because everyone else is also increasing in points with no reduction of applications so that your points difference as a total sum of points actually remains the same or goes down. People say that because we do not have a preference point system we do not have point creep but we do have a point creep because there are not enough permits turn over the number of applications.

Quote from: SteelheadTed on May 09, 2019, 01:00:59 PMQuote from: Woodchuck on May 09, 2019, 11:09:47 AMExcept everyone else has squared points as well, the amount of "entries" changes but not the odds.I'm not sure I understand. With more points your odds improve BECAUSE you have more entries. What I mean is that your odds don't change because of the squaring. The thing is that as your points go up, so does everyone else's points that don't draw, the proportion stays the same versus everyone else in the pool. The fact that the permit numbers are dwindling and we can't even clear out the max point holders means that as the years go by, the value of your points actually is dwindling.

Quote from: Woodchuck on May 09, 2019, 11:09:47 AMExcept everyone else has squared points as well, the amount of "entries" changes but not the odds.I'm not sure I understand. With more points your odds improve BECAUSE you have more entries.

Except everyone else has squared points as well, the amount of "entries" changes but not the odds.

Quote from: Woodchuck on May 09, 2019, 01:21:49 PMQuote from: SteelheadTed on May 09, 2019, 01:00:59 PMQuote from: Woodchuck on May 09, 2019, 11:09:47 AMExcept everyone else has squared points as well, the amount of "entries" changes but not the odds.I'm not sure I understand. With more points your odds improve BECAUSE you have more entries. What I mean is that your odds don't change because of the squaring. The thing is that as your points go up, so does everyone else's points that don't draw, the proportion stays the same versus everyone else in the pool. The fact that the permit numbers are dwindling and we can't even clear out the max point holders means that as the years go by, the value of your points actually is dwindling.Your last sentence is really getting at point creep, a related but different issue. Squaring does increase your odds as you acquire points and is more advantageous for those with higher points (since it is an exponential increase over time). If you want to argue odds are getting worse overtime since more people are entering the draws than are exiting the drawings (because they drew a tag), I agree and that is happening all over the West. But that isn't related to real odds necessarily. If I have one point and you have 4, you have 16 times better odds then me. Squaring does make a difference (though I think serves to discourage new hunters in the process).

Yes it gives you more chances to get a lower "assigned" number to enter the drawing, but does not increase chances of being drawn

Quote from: beauhunter on May 14, 2019, 02:08:47 PMYes it gives you more chances to get a lower "assigned" number to enter the drawing, but does not increase chances of being drawnThat is precisely why you would have better odds, because you have a lower number. I am trying to understand what some folks don't understand about this but the math is clear, more points = better odds.

Quote from: SteelheadTed on May 15, 2019, 12:34:11 PMQuote from: beauhunter on May 14, 2019, 02:08:47 PMYes it gives you more chances to get a lower "assigned" number to enter the drawing, but does not increase chances of being drawnThat is precisely why you would have better odds, because you have a lower number. I am trying to understand what some folks don't understand about this but the math is clear, more points = better odds.That is true, but it is more nuanced. 0.2% is better odds than 0.15% mathematically, but in reality it is the same thing. Also, your "better" odds go down over time. The misunderstanding is that by accumulating points, you are moving to a point in time where your odds go up until you have great or even guaranteed odds to draw a certain tag. The reality as several have said is that your odds are likely better now at X points than they will be in 10 years with X+10 points. That's what 95% of hunters don't understand.