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Author Topic: Is there an elephant in the room  (Read 7294 times)

Offline Sunbkpk

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #15 on: February 23, 2024, 08:21:55 PM »
Harvest data.

Offline dreamingbig

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #16 on: February 23, 2024, 08:26:04 PM »
I had a different document than the link you posted which I think was the 102.   I'll see if I can find it, Kinda limited as I am at work.

I found it, didnít scroll far enough in that link I postedÖ

I am in agreement with what everyone else is saying as well, plenty of bulls and cows. I think a big problem if you read that status and trends put out on a yearly basis is they didnít do surveys in 2014, 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2021 due to mild winters. If we had that many mild winters in the past decade with another mild winter this year how can this herd be doing so poorly? We all know this to not be the case. Then when they doing their surveys they are coming up with low bull to cow ratios and now we are holding at the lower end of recommended bull to cow ratio.
The bulls arenít going to come down on a mild winter either so unless they get out and really survey the dark timber by air how the heck are they going to count them?


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Offline STIKNSTRINGBOW

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #17 on: February 23, 2024, 08:35:56 PM »
Honestly, quit shooting cows.
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Offline hughjorgan

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #18 on: February 23, 2024, 08:58:49 PM »
Honestly, quit shooting cows.
..

Thatís what was done in the last season setting process. Were back to objective herd wise and bull to cow and their still taking opportunity from us

Offline Slamadoo

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #19 on: February 23, 2024, 09:45:05 PM »
Long story short...

I crunched a bunch of WDFW numbers last year going way back with the Yakima herd. Bull/Cow ratios have bounced back rapidly from numbers much worse than 18:100.

I agree with some on here that 18:100 might not even be accurate.

The calf survival numbers are the problem when you really dig into it. My research led me to believe that predators are the problem. Not state or native hunters.

They could definitely give us more bull permits.

I'll look for that data I collected and share it on here.

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #20 on: February 24, 2024, 08:53:03 AM »
Long story short...

I crunched a bunch of WDFW numbers last year going way back with the Yakima herd. Bull/Cow ratios have bounced back rapidly from numbers much worse than 18:100.

I agree with some on here that 18:100 might not even be accurate.

The calf survival numbers are the problem when you really dig into it. My research led me to believe that predators are the problem. Not state or native hunters.

They could definitely give us more bull permits.

I'll look for that data I collected and share it on here.
I'd be very interested in that data and curious where you found ANY data at all on Predator based calf mortality as I've never been able to find any. Admittedly my google-fu is not the strongest  :chuckle:
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Online Dan-o

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #21 on: February 24, 2024, 09:07:58 AM »
Long story short...

I crunched a bunch of WDFW numbers last year going way back with the Yakima herd. Bull/Cow ratios have bounced back rapidly from numbers much worse than 18:100.

I agree with some on here that 18:100 might not even be accurate.

The calf survival numbers are the problem when you really dig into it. My research led me to believe that predators are the problem. Not state or native hunters.

They could definitely give us more bull permits.

I'll look for that data I collected and share it on here.
I'd be very interested in that data and curious where you found ANY data at all on Predator based calf mortality as I've never been able to find any. Admittedly my google-fu is not the strongest  :chuckle:


I'd also like to see that data or any studies. 
I've looked a few times, but haven't found any studies. 
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Offline jackelope

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #22 on: February 24, 2024, 09:31:43 AM »
It'san interesting question and I don't think it should be an elephant in the room regardless of the reasoning.  We should be able to discuss wildlife related issues.  I'm definitely on the fringe of this one but the first thing that jumps out is the ratio.  13:100 is not great,  not cause for panic but it's a reason you may want to pull back a little.  We would really have to take a deeper dive into age structure to get to root questions. 
Acknowledging that there is over 100 miles of elk fence in Yakima separating elk from their historic critical range is also key. This is not only an issue of marginal habitat but also the lack of escape refuge for predators.  This does not benefit the human harvest. There is also specific seasons (right now) where elk are damned for existence on certain landscapes.  According to your local farm bureau the population and intrusion is at near all time highs.
So I'll offer an overvalued  :twocents: .
Bull population is near minimum according to surveys (?)
Archery success is consistent. Predators play a key role, likely the driver however I would question that it's forcing a trend if other metrics are consistent. Tribal harvest seems consistent, admittedly with little knowledge on this. 
Sustainable is a great question.  Is state management sustainable? Is unlimited harvest of yearling bulls coupled with significant other harvest i.e. draw tags,  landowner tags, master hunters sustainable?
I'm not sure what the recipe for success is but I feel like few have been able to see the forest through the trees and accept that it's a shared resource. 
It's a critical time in this state and really beyond. We all must evolve with the changing dynamics.
Fantastic post.

I'd also add that I'm highly skeptical of the 13 to 100 cows. Yakima elk population continues to thrive. This year will likely be an all time historic high for our elk herds. Let us kill some Surplus cows and that bull to cow ratio will come into line nicely.
lots of word salad but, I wanna know how Tbar comes up with the native harvest REAL numbers?  Really?  Heís a native and doesnít even know what the native harvest is in the 346 unit.  Even our spokesperson for the yakama tribe refuses to give us solid numbersÖ wonder why. 

What does Tbar have to do with the Yakama tribe and how would you expect him to know numbers? Just because he's native? Where did you see him come up with any harvest numbers at all?
Probably one of the most logical comments in this thread really.


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Offline Bob33

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #23 on: February 24, 2024, 09:57:09 AM »
Long story short...

I crunched a bunch of WDFW numbers last year going way back with the Yakima herd. Bull/Cow ratios have bounced back rapidly from numbers much worse than 18:100.

I agree with some on here that 18:100 might not even be accurate.

The calf survival numbers are the problem when you really dig into it. My research led me to believe that predators are the problem. Not state or native hunters.

They could definitely give us more bull permits.

I'll look for that data I collected and share it on here.
I'd be very interested in that data and curious where you found ANY data at all on Predator based calf mortality as I've never been able to find any. Admittedly my google-fu is not the strongest  :chuckle:
There was a study in the Blue Mountains a few years back.

https://nwsportsmanmag.com/some-details-from-year-2-of-blues-elk-calf-mortality-study-out/#:~:text=In%20response%20to%20that%20dangerously,4%20to%20allow%20hunters%20to
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Online Karl Blanchard

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #24 on: February 24, 2024, 10:04:07 AM »
Long story short...

I crunched a bunch of WDFW numbers last year going way back with the Yakima herd. Bull/Cow ratios have bounced back rapidly from numbers much worse than 18:100.

I agree with some on here that 18:100 might not even be accurate.

The calf survival numbers are the problem when you really dig into it. My research led me to believe that predators are the problem. Not state or native hunters.

They could definitely give us more bull permits.

I'll look for that data I collected and share it on here.
I'd be very interested in that data and curious where you found ANY data at all on Predator based calf mortality as I've never been able to find any. Admittedly my google-fu is not the strongest  :chuckle:
There was a study in the Blue Mountains a few years back.

https://nwsportsmanmag.com/some-details-from-year-2-of-blues-elk-calf-mortality-study-out/#:~:text=In%20response%20to%20that%20dangerously,4%20to%20allow%20hunters%20to
yes but this discussion is about the Yakima pmu not the blues.
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Offline Special T

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #25 on: February 24, 2024, 10:06:24 AM »
Tbar is more versed on the issue that almost anyone else on this issue.  He may/ may not have seen the Datta but his insights should always make you pay attention. :twocents:
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Offline hughjorgan

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #26 on: February 24, 2024, 10:32:10 AM »
Why is it that they did predator prey studies in the blues but havenít done one on the Yakima herd knowing theyíve recorded two of the lowest data points on calf to cow ratios? It doesnít appear there is a confidence interval on the data points either, so where do these numbers fall in the margin of error? They also used the calf to cow ratio with lower harvest rates to determine the overall number in mild winter years where they were telling everyone we were well below objective but since 2017 they have reduced opportunity to basically spike only all across the board. Obviously harvest is going to be down when you do that.

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #27 on: February 24, 2024, 10:52:19 AM »
The elephant may be the commission.  We have a very diverse state, elk all over the place, two different species, a bunch of biologists with ideas, herd statistics and a commission that seams to want to decrease consumptive use.  Blues elk are about half of what WDFW says and they are decreasing.  How many calves do you see down there?  NE elk are pretty much ignored, OTC, any elk and several seasons.  Calf survival is way above the blues.  Way more take in 127 than 154.  Management goal is kill as many as you can, they tend to get into trouble up there, lets ignore them.  A couple thousand may cross I-90 west of Vantage, lots of calves, may be a bit short on bulls.  Opportunities in flux with WDFW.  Many thousands and a bunch of hybrids in the west.  Novack says we have 10 elk populations, are they managed as such or is the commission on a different path or slippery slope?

Offline jackelope

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #28 on: February 24, 2024, 10:58:10 AM »
Tbar is more versed on the issue that almost anyone else on this issue.  He may/ may not have seen the Datta but his insights should always make you pay attention. :twocents:

This is where I'm at. No offense to anyone else on the forum, but he's probably more versed than almost anyone participating here.
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Online Dan-o

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #29 on: February 24, 2024, 11:03:39 AM »
Tbar is more versed on the issue that almost anyone else on this issue.  He may/ may not have seen the Datta but his insights should always make you pay attention. :twocents:

This is where I'm at. No offense to anyone else on the forum, but he's probably more versed than almost anyone participating here.

Agreed.
He brings facts, data and an educated opinion.
I'll always read his posts carefully, and I cringe when people insult him out of reflex.
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