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Author Topic: Oregon Seed numbers 2024  (Read 3370 times)

Offline Crunchy

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Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #15 on: May 28, 2024, 09:14:23 PM »
mine is 0795,352 for 200 series elk.  IM SCREWED

Which hunt did you apply for? Res or non res?

Does it matter if only 5% of tags go to non-res for all 200 series

Offline millerwheeler

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Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #16 on: May 28, 2024, 09:21:18 PM »
This is all so confusing lol Iíll just wait for the disappointment
« Last Edit: May 29, 2024, 06:05:01 AM by millerwheeler »

Offline Doublelunger

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Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #17 on: May 28, 2024, 09:32:40 PM »
Okay I think I follow this. For my 100 series rifle buck tag in the Ches.

2023 First Choice Applicants = 629

9,999,999 / 629 = 15,898

15,898 x 440 tags = 6,995,230

Buck Deer 100 Series Seed # = 3,633,092

3,633,092 + 6,995,230 (less 9,999,999 for overlapping) = 0,658,322

My App # = 5,666,941

So I should be in. And that website is showing 100% odds for non-res with 2 points which is where I'm at. Pretty neat.

Well it looks like chesnimus gives 22 tags to non residents. Last year there were 30 non res applicants. You have to search for the points summary reports to get that number. Its not in the regs.
https://myodfw.com/articles/point-summary-reports

But 'd go: 10,000,000ų30=333,333◊22=7,333,333, add that to the seed number(3,633,092) and roll it over and you get 0,926,425. So ya if your app number is between 3,633,092 and 0,926,425 then you should be good to go.

Offline Doublelunger

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Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #18 on: May 28, 2024, 09:38:58 PM »
mine is 0795,352 for 200 series elk.  IM SCREWED

Which hunt did you apply for? Res or non res?

Does it matter if only 5% of tags go to non-res for all 200 series


Depends on what you put in for. Still some 200 series hunts that are 100% for non res.

Offline Ricochet

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Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #19 on: May 28, 2024, 09:55:36 PM »
Math guys, the difference between my app# and the elk seed, is 1,747,973.  So youíre saying I have a chance!!!  🤣🤣

I let Ron Wold do the math at https://oregontags.com/ If he says you have, for example, a 10% chance of drawing at your point level then you need to be 10% or less above the seed number, which is less than 1,000,000 over the number. In your case, Trophyhunt you are 17.4% over the seed number. Check and see what Ron says your chances are. It's worked for me every time and no calculator needed.  Probably less accurate for non-residents because it doesn't take much of a swing in application numbers to skew the results but as a resident, it's been spot on for me.
It is not my duty to validate your delusions.

Offline trophyhunt

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Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #20 on: May 28, 2024, 10:20:08 PM »
Math guys, the difference between my app# and the elk seed, is 1,747,973.  So youíre saying I have a chance!!!  🤣🤣

I let Ron Wold do the math at https://oregontags.com/ If he says you have, for example, a 10% chance of drawing at your point level then you need to be 10% or less above the seed number, which is less than 1,000,000 over the number. In your case, Trophyhunt you are 17.4% over the seed number. Check and see what Ron says your chances are. It's worked for me every time and no calculator needed.  Probably less accurate for non-residents because it doesn't take much of a swing in application numbers to skew the results but as a resident, it's been spot on for me.
thanks, still confusing as heck though.
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Offline pickardjw

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Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #21 on: May 29, 2024, 05:53:43 AM »
Okay I think I follow this. For my 100 series rifle buck tag in the Ches.

2023 First Choice Applicants = 629

9,999,999 / 629 = 15,898

15,898 x 440 tags = 6,995,230

Buck Deer 100 Series Seed # = 3,633,092

3,633,092 + 6,995,230 (less 9,999,999 for overlapping) = 0,658,322

My App # = 5,666,941

So I should be in. And that website is showing 100% odds for non-res with 2 points which is where I'm at. Pretty neat.

Well it looks like chesnimus gives 22 tags to non residents. Last year there were 30 non res applicants. You have to search for the points summary reports to get that number. Its not in the regs.
https://myodfw.com/articles/point-summary-reports

But 'd go: 10,000,000ų30=333,333◊22=7,333,333, add that to the seed number(3,633,092) and roll it over and you get 0,926,425. So ya if your app number is between 3,633,092 and 0,926,425 then you should be good to go.

Ahh, thatís how you do non-res. Gotcha.

Offline trophyhunt

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Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #22 on: May 29, 2024, 08:37:04 AM »
I watched the Oregon drawing live yesterday for the raffle tickets, that is pretty cool!  Iíd love to see Wa do the same thing. When they get down to about 10-15 people for each tag, their names are floating around on the screen, it would be exciting to see your name bouncing around. 
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Offline bigfish51

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Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #23 on: May 29, 2024, 09:45:33 AM »
Oh so close!  My son's # is 532 under the elk seed #.  Dang it!  Wish he was 532 over, he'd be in great shape for a tag.  Oh well!  Not even close on the rest of the seed #'s, so it looks like it will be points accumulated again this year in OR.  Good luck to all of you.

Offline Ricochet

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Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #24 on: May 29, 2024, 11:03:47 AM »
Missed the bighorn number by a country mile, starting to think somebody up there doesn't like me since I've been applying since 1968 and still no luck.  :bash:
It is not my duty to validate your delusions.

Offline Elkfever

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Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #25 on: May 29, 2024, 10:35:38 PM »
18,494 over the premium elk seed number for Pine Creek.  Do I have a chance?  😬

Offline mp.hunter

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Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #26 on: May 30, 2024, 06:55:45 AM »
18,494 over the premium elk seed number for Pine Creek.  Do I have a chance? 
I hope you get it, I was in the same boat 2 years ago only 18,000 and change and I did not get I was very confused


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Offline Elkfever

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Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #27 on: May 30, 2024, 07:35:33 AM »
Yeah, Iíve never been this close before but also feel like it could still be a long shot.  If nothing else, Iíll enjoy the anticipation before the draw. 

Offline Doublelunger

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Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #28 on: May 31, 2024, 06:53:20 AM »
18,494 over the premium elk seed number for Pine Creek.  Do I have a chance?  😬

300 people put in for pine creek premium last year. Assuming an even distribution that's 33,333 between applicants. So if you were to also assume the same number of applicants this year that would mean you have a very realistic chance.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2024, 07:19:04 AM by Doublelunger »

Offline CNELK

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Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #29 on: May 31, 2024, 07:44:40 AM »
According to the math, I have about a 13% chance, which is a long shot at my premium deer tag. Iím 130,936 off


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