Permit Clarification Question

[fishunt247]

I'm trying to grasp our state's wonderful (read with sarcasm) draw system. Am I understanding it correctly that ALL applicants for a category go into a hat, regardless of hunt choice, and then if your name gets drawn they look at your application?

I understand squaring points and all of that. This is the last part I'm trying to understand.

As a high point holder in most categories, I sure wish WDFW would go to Colorado's system. But that's a can of worms that's been opened 1000 times on here. Thanks to whoever answers my question.

[Bob33]

Every applicant "in the hat" for a particular permit category (Quality Bull, Antlerless Deer, .etc) has a number. Applicants are taken out of "the hat" to be reviewed based on their number, starting at the lowest number. When an applicant is reviewed, his first hunt choice is evaluated. If there is a permit available, he is awarded a permit. If not, his second choice (if there is one) is evaluated in the same manner. Once all his choices are evaluated, the process moves on to the applicant with the next lowest number. All applicants in the hat are evaluated.

[STLHDHunter]

Every applicant "in the hat" for a particular permit category (Quality Bull, Antlerless Deer, .etc) has a number. Applicants are taken out of "the hat" to be reviewed based on their number, starting at the lowest number. When an applicant is reviewed, his first hunt choice is evaluated. If there is a permit available, he is awarded a permit. If not, his second choice (if there is one) is evaluated in the same manner. Once all his choices are evaluated, the process moves on to the applicant with the next lowest number. All applicants in the hat are evaluated.

I've been wondering about this too, appreciate the clarification!

[fishunt247]

And "their number" is essentially their draw order, correct? So the system randomly orders all names in the draw order, and then they go down the line to look at each number's choices and if a tag is available.

Thanks for the clarification. I was trying to wrap my head around the language they used to explain it.

[trophyhunt]

Bob has it correct, but just to add, all your names in the hat are assigned a random number, 1 to a billion or more.  Then your lowest number is the only one used, the rest are thrown in the garbage.

[TriggerMike]

So really in order to increase your chances of being drawn for a OIL hunt you should actually apply for whatever hunt has more tags, not less applicants. Cause your odds of having a tag available for one of your choices when your number is called would be greater. Or would choosing your hunt choices for hunts with less applicants increase the odds of a tag available when your number is called? That's where I get confused.

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[bobcat]

So really in order to increase your chances of being drawn for a OIL hunt you should actually apply for whatever hunt has more tags, not less applicants. Cause your odds of having a tag available for one of your choices when your number is called would be greater. Or would choosing your hunt choices for hunts with less applicants increase the odds of a tag available when your number is called? That's where I get confused.

Well, you get 4 choices, so I always try to put in for at least two hunts that have the highest number of permits, and then maybe apply for a couple that have the least number of applicants relative to the number of permits for that particular hunt. I bet none of what I just wrote makes any sense. But it does to me!   

[Bob33]

So really in order to increase your chances of being drawn for a OIL hunt you should actually apply for whatever hunt has more tags, not less applicants. Cause your odds of having a tag available for one of your choices when your number is called would be greater. Or would choosing your hunt choices for hunts with less applicants increase the odds of a tag available when your number is called? That's where I get confused.

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In simple terms it is applications per permit that matter. A hunt with 10 permits and 20 applications is easier to draw than a hunt with 100 permits and 1,000 applications.

[Stein]

For OIL tags, the question is like "should I buy Powerball or Mega Millions?".  Answer - sure, you aren't going to win either way.

[TriggerMike]

So really in order to increase your chances of being drawn for a OIL hunt you should actually apply for whatever hunt has more tags, not less applicants. Cause your odds of having a tag available for one of your choices when your number is called would be greater. Or would choosing your hunt choices for hunts with less applicants increase the odds of a tag available when your number is called? That's where I get confused.

Well, you get 4 choices, so I always try to put in for at least two hunts that have the highest number of permits, and then maybe apply for a couple that have the least number of applicants relative to the number of permits for that particular hunt. I bet none of what I just wrote makes any sense. But it does to me!   

That actually makes perfect sense to me. You're trying to get a little of both worlds, so to speak. I like the strategy.

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[TriggerMike]

So really in order to increase your chances of being drawn for a OIL hunt you should actually apply for whatever hunt has more tags, not less applicants. Cause your odds of having a tag available for one of your choices when your number is called would be greater. Or would choosing your hunt choices for hunts with less applicants increase the odds of a tag available when your number is called? That's where I get confused.

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In simple terms it is applications per permit that matter. A hunt with 10 permits and 20 applications is easier to draw than a hunt with 100 permits and 1,000 applications.

But it's not about easier to draw, it's about statistically maximizing your chance of having one of your hunt choices still available when your randomly assigned number is called. But I guess a hunt choice with less applicants and less tags, but a higher percentage then a high tag unit, would statistically have a higher chance of still being available when your number is called. Right? I always second guess my math, especially stats.

Stein, you're right though. It's either gonna happen or it's not. Haha.

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[andrew_in_idaho]

What you should actually do is order your application from lowest odds(1st choice) to best odds


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[scoutdog346]

if u look at the point category wdfw has on their website it might shed much light for u.  u get look at a specific special perm. and see how many people went for a specific special perm. had 1 point how many people went for the tag that had 2 point's ect...and u get to see how many points to the guy had that had the most points going for that tag.  it's Hart breaking cuz it puts it into perspective how hard it is to get drawn. often you see guys that have like 17 points and he had the most going for that hunt but was not selected then u see guys with only 3 points but they got selected.  U get to see all kinds of things and when u really get into it u start seeing trends and phenomenons...lol.

[no.cen.wa]

This is an interesting subject,,I called WDFW today to explain the process, I will have 19 years of trying to  get a Quality Deer special tag, that gives me 361 times my name is in the pot,,well there is no pot. Then the computer (WDFW)  RANDOMLY assigns a different number to each of my 361 in the pot (I guess it's really the CLOUD) Then they only use the lowest number and throw all the other 360 away. If I'm lucky,, (WHICH I HAVEN'T been yet) and my 1 number is low enough, I get a tag,,, unless they are already used up by someone else, say maybe is in group with 5 hunters. Somehow I went from 361 shots at it to just 1. Rocket science I guess?
Think I'll go have a drink
John G

[Bob33]

http://wdfw.wa.gov/help/questions/214/How+does+the+special+permit+drawing+work%3F+I+heard+you+square+points.+Does+that+improve+my+drawing+odds%3F

[bobcat]

Your lowest number is the only one that would matter. When your number comes up, and there are none of the permits still available that you applied for, the next highest number you were assigned would not get you that permit either. But you really did have 361 chances to get a low number. It's the same as having "your name in the hat 361 times."

[no.cen.wa]

I know Bob, just venting I guess