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Author Topic: Looking for some logic  (Read 1364 times)

Offline Ridgeratt

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Looking for some logic
« on: May 16, 2023, 10:42:49 AM »
https://www.newsbreak.com/news/3026641501972-chinook-counts-surge-but-picture-still-hazy-on-idaho-washington-rivers?_f=app_share&s=a3&share_destination_id=MjE2OTk4NjY0LTE2ODQyNDAyMTkzNDA%3D&pd=0EgVGST4&hl=en_US&send_time=1684240219&actBtn=floatShareButton&trans_data=%7B%22platform%22%3A1%2C%22cv%22%3A%2223.19.0%22%2C%22languages%22%3A%22en%22%7D


Chinook counts surge, but picture still hazy on Idaho, Washington rivers
By ERIC BARKER Lewiston Tribune,

1 day ago
https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=3yiA9e_0mPibPHk00

Counts of spring chinook at Bonneville Dam spiked dramatically this week, giving some hope to worried anglers.

But uncertainty over the unusually late run led the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife to cancel salmon fishing on the Snake River. The season, which was limited to two days a week at Ice Harbor and Little Goose dams, opened May 9. Based on preseason forecasts, the state established a harvest quota of about 670 adult chinook.

But for weeks, anglers and fisheries managers watched and waited for the chrome-bright fish with red and fatty flesh to start moving up the Columbia River. Adult chinook counts at Bonneville Dam have been worrisome.

That changed May 8, when the daily count jumped from about 1,500 to 4,508. May 9 saw more than 5,800 chinook pass the dam, and on Wednesday and Thursday the daily counts topped 7,000.

Despite the jump, Washington fisheries managers said a halt to the season is needed until its overall strength becomes more clear.

The surge likely saved fishing seasons in Idaho, but managers don’t yet know if the seven-day-a-week structure on the Clearwater, lower Salmon and Little Salmon rivers will remain intact.

Right now they are projecting a harvest share of about 1,900 adult chinook on the Clearwater River, down from the preseason forecast of 2,700, and a harvest share of about 1,400 on the lower Salmon and Little Salmon Rivers, down from 3,800.

Harvest shares change as the run materializes. Joe DuPont, regional fisheries manager for the Idaho Department of Fish and Game at Lewiston, said if the latest harvest share forecast proves accurate, the agency would likely reduce fishing to Thursdays through Sundays on both the lower Salmon and Little Salmon rivers and the Clearwater River and its tributaries.

“Don’t be surprised if changes in the seasons and limits occur next week,” he wrote in a weekly run update available at bit.ly/42zUx7k .


https://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/regulations/emergency-rules/snake-river-spring-chinook-salmon-fishery-change-2023-05

Snake River spring Chinook salmon fishery change
May 12, 2023

Action: Closes spring Chinook salmon fishing on the Snake River.

Effective date: May 13, 2023.

Species affected: Chinook salmon.

Locations:

A) Below Little Goose Dam: Snake River from Texas Rapids boat launch (located on the south side of the river upstream of the mouth of Tucannon River) to the fishing restriction boundary below Little Goose Dam. This zone includes both shores and the rock and concrete area between the juvenile bypass return pipe and Little Goose Dam along the south shoreline of the facility (includes the walkway area locally known as “the Wall” in front of the juvenile collection facility).

B) Below Ice Harbor Dam: Snake River from the South Bound Highway 12 Bridge near Pasco upstream about 7 miles to the fishing restriction boundary below Ice Harbor Dam.

Reason for action: Current spring Chinook salmon allocation for the Snake is based on the pre-season forecast as there has not been a run size update yet. Fish passage appears to be delayed throughout the system based on water conditions (temperature and flow). The fishery is closing to allow for staff to assess catch information and determine the remaining allocation for this fishery.

Additional information: This rule closes all spring Chinook salmon fishing in the Snake River.

Information contact: Jeremy Trump, District 3 Fish Biologist, 509-382-1005.



The WDFW makes about as much sense as Chinese algebra.

 :bash: :bash:
.
6600 fish went across Bonneville yesterday.

Offline metlhead

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Re: Looking for some logic
« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2023, 01:42:31 PM »
Below Bonnie may reopen the day the last king crosses. Opportunity!

Offline Ridgeratt

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Re: Looking for some logic
« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2023, 02:12:48 PM »
Below Bonnie "may" reopen the day the last king crosses. Opportunity!

Are you talking when they start counting Upriver Brights or when the very "last springer" comes past.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2023, 06:06:30 AM by Ridgeratt »

Offline metlhead

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Re: Looking for some logic
« Reply #3 on: May 17, 2023, 06:02:24 AM »
Either. But will certainly be post-panic and DFW determines encounters will be low to non-existent

Offline Stein

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Re: Looking for some logic
« Reply #4 on: May 17, 2023, 10:04:17 AM »
It's tough, in general it appears WDFW modeling sucks.  When you can get 4x or 1/4x actual return compared to model it's hard to trust the model.

Escapement based management seems much more reliable but requires more physical tools or more money to send people around.

What we have seems kind of like a ratchet without the little lever on top to change directions.  We can tighten easily but not loosen without a bunch of effort.

 


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