Hunting Washington Forum

Big Game Hunting => Elk Hunting => Topic started by: Stein on February 11, 2019, 12:27:01 PM


Advertise Here
Title: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Stein on February 11, 2019, 12:27:01 PM
The good news is that I just confirmed with GoHunt that they will be offering WA draw odds sometime before the draw deadline.  The bad news is that means a drastic reduction in the threads where we argue about the odds and the numbers of balls in the hat.

My guess is that there are going to be some pretty bleak reality unleashed, but maybe I'm wrong.

It will be interesting if they also have historical data that shows what has been happening over the last few years, since we have bonus points the "point creep" may actually be mild compared to other states.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: vandeman17 on February 11, 2019, 12:50:28 PM
That will be interesting to see. Its funny because I listen to the elktalk podcast and they have dedicated podcasts to talk about application strategies for most western states but they don't talk about WA. They even said it was a waste of time to discuss because of the system we use and the crappy hunting we have  :chuckle:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: bearpaw on February 11, 2019, 12:53:34 PM
 :yeah:  That's why other previously popular services really have not done much with WA.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: grundy53 on February 11, 2019, 01:01:04 PM
Probably a waste of time and resources for Gohunt. If I was a non resident I wouldn't hunt here. I barely want to hunt here as it is. It will be interesting to see the true odds.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Karl Blanchard on February 11, 2019, 01:04:35 PM
Probably a waste of time and resources for Gohunt. If I was a non resident I wouldn't hunt here. I barely want to hunt here as it is. It will be interesting to see the true odds.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
  :yeah: really makes zero sense to me why they would even waste the resources to figure it out.  They probably get a lot of emails from Washington users I'd imagine.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Bango skank on February 11, 2019, 01:09:16 PM
Probably a waste of time and resources for Gohunt. If I was a non resident I wouldn't hunt here. I barely want to hunt here as it is. It will be interesting to see the true odds.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

 :yeah:  i think im done putting in for any special permits after this year.  Just hate giving wdfw so much money when our wildlife is managed so poorly.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Stein on February 11, 2019, 01:13:06 PM
Probably a waste of time and resources for Gohunt. If I was a non resident I wouldn't hunt here. I barely want to hunt here as it is. It will be interesting to see the true odds.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
  :yeah: really makes zero sense to me why they would even waste the resources to figure it out.  They probably get a lot of emails from Washington users I'd imagine.

I know they have a bigtime statistics/math guy on the payroll, maybe they have him full time with the idea of getting all the hunting states with draws up as a way to gain more marketshare.  If it were me, I would be moving quickly to get to the top of the research pile.  I would bet there are guys that only hunt WA that would pay for the service.  Even if I was only putting myself and my family through all the draws just in WA it would be worthwhile in my opinion.

Services like OnX are already seeing competition, anyone with a few bucks can put stuff together these days.  The need for continual improvement is crucial to stay in business.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: bearpaw on February 11, 2019, 01:14:39 PM
Probably a waste of time and resources for Gohunt. If I was a non resident I wouldn't hunt here. I barely want to hunt here as it is. It will be interesting to see the true odds.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
  :yeah: really makes zero sense to me why they would even waste the resources to figure it out.  They probably get a lot of emails from Washington users I'd imagine.

It actually makes good sense to me, probably the only western state with a higher percentage of hunters who go out of state is CA. GoHunt is offering a segment of it''s customers a resource most other services haven't provided. Many hunters in WA also would like to know odds in their home state.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Dhoey07 on February 11, 2019, 01:28:20 PM
I haven't looked at washington regs in a couple years so I apologize in advance if its different now but, I think a lot of people see the average points next to a special draw and think that that amount is the average of who drew the tag. When in reality that is the average of everyone who applied. 
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Brushcrawler on February 11, 2019, 02:03:28 PM
It will be very interesting to see accurate odds for WA. It’s not possible to replicate the draw odds without the detailed bootstrapping methods that goHunt uses so there may be some surprises. In the long run it will likely redistribute applications and make the odds of similar hunts more consistent over time.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: wheels on February 11, 2019, 02:20:02 PM
kinda surprised  every time i hear them talk about us its from a non res perspective and not worth it to apply   
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: X-Force on February 11, 2019, 02:21:47 PM
I wonder if seeing the draw odds will change peoples perception of the species/category system and put pressure on WDFW to change the system back to 5 species with no categories or to a system where people can only apply for 1 or 2 species. 


kinda surprised  every time i hear them talk about us its from a non res perspective and not worth it to apply   
or resident  :chuckle: :chuckle:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Stein on February 11, 2019, 02:26:02 PM
I haven't looked at washington regs in a couple years so I apologize in advance if its different now but, I think a lot of people see the average points next to a special draw and think that that amount is the average of who drew the tag. When in reality that is the average of everyone who applied.

Bingo.  My expectation is that a hunt where the average is say 13 points that the odds of drawing with 13 points is going to be much lower than most people (myself included) realize.

I don't see WDFW changing much as they can't afford to miss revenue in their already depleted budget.  The only real budget neutral fix would be to take away draws and charge more.  Thus, you could apply for a quality deer or elk draw hunt, but it would cost $26 instead of $13 each.  Typically, cost increases to resident hunting or fishing result in pitchforks coming out.  They would have to sell the public on what would look like half the opportunity for double the cost.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Ridgerunner on February 11, 2019, 03:38:29 PM
I'll be interested in seeing what the odds are they calculate.  It will be a real eye opener for alot of people.  Draw odds in this state are very very poor for most hunts. 
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: bobcat on February 11, 2019, 03:51:08 PM
I haven't looked at washington regs in a couple years so I apologize in advance if its different now but, I think a lot of people see the average points next to a special draw and think that that amount is the average of who drew the tag. When in reality that is the average of everyone who applied.

You're wrong about that. It IS the average of those who drew the permit.

To prove this to yourself, look at some of the permits that only have 1 permit. Let's say the "Ten Ten" Quality bull elk permit (Hunt #2006.) It shows 1 permit available, and 107 applications in 2017 with average points of 26. There's no way the average of all applications was 26. So it was the one person that drew who had 26 points.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Stein on February 11, 2019, 04:01:09 PM
Yeah, it is the average points of the successful applicants.  It is not how many points you need to draw, just the average of who drew.  Basically, it is a useless statistic as it doesn't tell you anything about your odds of drawing at any point level.  Further, I think many people look at that and say, hey, the average is 13, so when I get 13 I'll probably draw.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: bobcat on February 11, 2019, 04:03:55 PM
Yeah, it is the average points of the successful applicants.  It is not how many points you need to draw, just the average of who drew.  Basically, it is a useless statistic as it doesn't tell you anything about your odds of drawing at any point level.  Further, I think many people look at that and say, hey, the average is 13, so when I get 13 I'll probably draw.

True statement! The number is meaningless. They would be better off to not include that number, because, as you said, it's very misleading to people who don't pay a lot of attention to the true odds of drawing a permit in Washington.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Dhoey07 on February 11, 2019, 04:05:40 PM
I haven't looked at washington regs in a couple years so I apologize in advance if its different now but, I think a lot of people see the average points next to a special draw and think that that amount is the average of who drew the tag. When in reality that is the average of everyone who applied.

You're wrong about that. It IS the average of those who drew the permit.

To prove this to yourself, look at some of the permits that only have 1 permit. Let's say the "Ten Ten" Quality bull elk permit (Hunt #2006.) It shows 1 permit available, and 107 applications in 2017 with average points of 26. There's no way the average of all applications was 26. So it was the one person that drew who had 26 points.

Thanks for the clarification
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: idahohuntr on February 11, 2019, 04:07:24 PM
I'm not surprised they are doing it - I'm betting they have a lot of WA residents as customers given how many of us hunt out of state.

Calculating the odds is not terribly difficult - but getting timely and accurate data from WDFW to calculate odds could be a nightmare...although...maybe it will be a blessing for wdfw.  The GoHunt guys can just talk to the tech people that run the draws and get the right data and just do it for them.  :chuckle:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Stein on February 11, 2019, 04:23:07 PM
The problem they will run into after they get the data is that for many tags you can put second and third choices as well.  I seem to remember an interview where they basically have to run millions of draws on their computer to get at the actual odds for states like WA, there is no way to effectively calculate them mathematically.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: KFhunter on February 11, 2019, 04:31:03 PM
I'd bet a good chunk of GoHunt's customers are Washington hunters trying to figure out how to hunt other states, I'm glad they're doing this.


I'm a gohunt elite member myself and I know quite a few of you all replying here probably are too.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: bearpaw on February 11, 2019, 04:51:33 PM
I use these services on a regular basis to determine areas to apply for, it's a quick way to compare units, it has been disappointing that most avoid providing WA info. I need to renew my GoHunt membership, this was a good reminder to do so.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Magnum_Willys on February 11, 2019, 05:14:39 PM
We will still put in even when its one chance over the next 100 years.   Because we dream.    :bash:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: grundy53 on February 11, 2019, 05:23:34 PM
I'd bet a good chunk of GoHunt's customers are Washington hunters trying to figure out how to hunt other states, I'm glad they're doing this.


I'm a gohunt elite member myself and I know quite a few of you all replying here probably are too.
I am also

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: sagerat on February 11, 2019, 08:05:04 PM
In my opinion it’s just a matter of too many people wanting an extremely limited amount of tags. Am I wrong or is Washington’s system identical to Nevada’s?
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: actionshooter on February 11, 2019, 08:33:42 PM
From GoHunts perspective its probably a good investment, they will gain a bunch of new clients, from my perspective the odds are so bleak its a waste of time.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Stein on February 11, 2019, 08:38:33 PM
In my opinion it’s just a matter of too many people wanting an extremely limited amount of tags. Am I wrong or is Washington’s system identical to Nevada’s?

Pretty close although they have landowner tags and a waiting period after you draw a tag before you can apply again.  There are also a few other rules like being able to turn the tag in for a refund of money and points and the ability to buy points only after the draw.

Their points system works the same way, which is to say you gather points and have horrific odds at drawing a tag.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Matth on February 12, 2019, 08:38:13 AM
I will continue to apply, mainly because i'm in to deep to stop now. I'm very interested to see go hunts take on this.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: X-Force on February 12, 2019, 09:03:34 AM
In my opinion it’s just a matter of too many people wanting an extremely limited amount of tags. Am I wrong or is Washington’s system identical to Nevada’s?

Pretty close although they have landowner tags and a waiting period after you draw a tag before you can apply again.  There are also a few other rules like being able to turn the tag in for a refund of money and points and the ability to buy points only after the draw.

Their points system works the same way, which is to say you gather points and have horrific odds at drawing a tag.

The big difference between WA and NV is WA has OTC and NV is draw only.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: BeerBugler on February 12, 2019, 09:15:39 AM
In my opinion it’s just a matter of too many people wanting an extremely limited amount of tags. Am I wrong or is Washington’s system identical to Nevada’s?

Pretty close although they have landowner tags and a waiting period after you draw a tag before you can apply again.  There are also a few other rules like being able to turn the tag in for a refund of money and points and the ability to buy points only after the draw.

Their points system works the same way, which is to say you gather points and have horrific odds at drawing a tag.

AND....Nevada only gives 10% to non residents. The great state of Washington doesn’t care who gets the tags in fact, they would prefer all tags to go to non residents because WDFW gets more money! I’ve drawn 2 awesome tags in Nevada in 6 years....I drew one ok tag in WA in 14.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: idahohuntr on February 12, 2019, 09:19:05 AM
I would be surprised if more than 1% of draw tags went to NRs in Wa...so a 10% cap would be meaningless.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: bearpaw on February 12, 2019, 09:24:57 AM
I don't think many non-residents apply, it would be interesting to see the numbers.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: mburrows on February 12, 2019, 09:57:43 AM
In my opinion it’s just a matter of too many people wanting an extremely limited amount of tags. Am I wrong or is Washington’s system identical to Nevada’s?

Pretty close although they have landowner tags and a waiting period after you draw a tag before you can apply again.  There are also a few other rules like being able to turn the tag in for a refund of money and points and the ability to buy points only after the draw.

Their points system works the same way, which is to say you gather points and have horrific odds at drawing a tag.

AND....Nevada only gives 10% to non residents. The great state of Washington doesn’t care who gets the tags in fact, they would prefer all tags to go to non residents because WDFW gets more money! I’ve drawn 2 awesome tags in Nevada in 6 years....I drew one ok tag in WA in 14.

They way WA works is you have to pay for the full tag fee upfront whether you draw or not so it would make no difference to the state if a single NR drew or not.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Stein on February 12, 2019, 10:07:03 AM
Yeah, but they get a refund if they don't draw.

I'm sure there are isolated cases where there are few tags, or even one for a draw and it goes to a NR.  I would guess that is very likely and probably limited to out of state family.

For goats and sheep, there are probably more NR applications just due to the limited places to hunt them and the long odds.  For elk and deer, you would be better off applying everywhere and WA last.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Bob33 on February 12, 2019, 10:20:32 AM
I can see non-resident youth applying, especially for OIL permits. Their cost is less than adult residents for both the application, and the tag if drawn.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: chester on February 12, 2019, 10:36:02 AM
Yeah, but they get a refund if they don't draw.

I'm sure there are isolated cases where there are few tags, or even one for a draw and it goes to a NR.  I would guess that is very likely and probably limited to out of state family.

For goats and sheep, there are probably more NR applications just due to the limited places to hunt them and the long odds.  For elk and deer, you would be better off applying everywhere and WA last.

Are you sure about the refund? I just can’t fathom Wdfw giving money back to anyone. I think as far as deer and elk go they just end up with an expensive spike tag.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Bob33 on February 12, 2019, 10:44:00 AM
Yeah, but they get a refund if they don't draw.

I'm sure there are isolated cases where there are few tags, or even one for a draw and it goes to a NR.  I would guess that is very likely and probably limited to out of state family.

For goats and sheep, there are probably more NR applications just due to the limited places to hunt them and the long odds.  For elk and deer, you would be better off applying everywhere and WA last.
Are you sure about the refund? I just can’t fathom Wdfw giving money back to anyone. I think as far as deer and elk go they just end up with an expensive spike tag.
Licenses for moose, goat, and mountain sheep are not purchased until an applicant is drawn. The license fee is not fronted for OIL species. For other species such as deer and elk a hunting license must be purchased to apply for special permits, and that cost is not refunded.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Johnny Doe on February 12, 2019, 01:21:37 PM
Yeah, but they get a refund if they don't draw.

I'm sure there are isolated cases where there are few tags, or even one for a draw and it goes to a NR.  I would guess that is very likely and probably limited to out of state family.

For goats and sheep, there are probably more NR applications just due to the limited places to hunt them and the long odds.  For elk and deer, you would be better off applying everywhere and WA last.
Are you sure about the refund? I just can’t fathom Wdfw giving money back to anyone. I think as far as deer and elk go they just end up with an expensive spike tag.
Licenses for moose, goat, and mountain sheep are not purchased until an applicant is drawn. The license fee is not fronted for OIL species. For other species such as deer and elk a hunting license must be purchased to apply for special permits, and that cost is not refunded.

 :yeah:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: BUTTER on February 12, 2019, 08:42:29 PM
Useless information
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: dreamingbig on February 12, 2019, 09:50:53 PM
I don't think many non-residents apply, it would be interesting to see the numbers.
True statement. They have to be buy a nonresident elk tag just to apply.  Not many folks doing that!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: bobcat on February 12, 2019, 10:47:32 PM
This is what Huntin' Fool has to say about non-residents applying in Washington:

Quote
For  non-residents,  it  is  difficult  to  justify  applying  for Washington’s special, better quality draw hunts for deer and/or elk. In order to apply for these draw hunts, you must first purchase a non-refundable deer and/or elk license, both of which are well over $400. If you are unsuccessful in the draw, you are stuck with a general tag. Unless you have  connections  in  Washington,  we  do  not  recommend that you try the general hunts; therefore, in the Huntin’ Fool® magazine, since we cover all of the western states from a non-resident perspective, we only cover the sheep, moose, and goat draw information in Washington.In Washington, when you apply as a non-resident for sheep, goat, or moose, you must purchase a $110.50 Special Hunt Permit Application for each species. You then submit the application,  and  if  you  are  lucky  enough  to  draw,  you purchase the $1,652 sheep, goat, or moose license. Hunters under the age of 16 at the time of application pay $3.80 for each application for moose, sheep, or goat, and if drawn, they then pay $57 for the tag. Washington manages their sheep, goat, and moose populations very conservatively, so hunters typically run extremely high success rates.Washington has different categories of permits for moose and  sheep,  such  as  65  years  and  over  permits,  youth permits,  disabled  permits,  master  hunter  permits,  and antlerless and ewe permits. Typically all of these permits are  for  female  animals  only.  Hunters  can  apply  for these permits in addition to the regular permits, so you may receive more than one sheep or moose permit in 1 year, just not two trophy permits. Check the regulations for  more  information  on  these  types  of  hunts.  All  of Washington’s  sheep,  goat,  and  moose  draw  permits  are allocated  through  the  draw  process  without  regard  to resident or non-resident hunter status; therefore, the draw odds are the same for residents and non-residents.In addition to Washington’s regular drawing, they also have a unique raffle permit drawing system for deer, elk, moose, Mountain goat, and sheep. The raffle tickets you purchase may  be  for  a  single  species  or  a  package  of  multiple species.  These  raffle  tickets  must  be  purchased  through Washington’s  license  vendors.  For  more  information on  these  raffle  packages,  species  available,  and  cost, consult  Washington’s  2014  Big  Game  Hunting  Seasons and  Regulations  booklet  or  go  to http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/.Non-resident  hunters  looking  to  hunt  sheep,  goat,  or moose should look hard at Washington and decide if it’s one  of  the  states  they  should  apply  in.  It  costs  a  non-refundable  $110.50  per  application  for  moose,  goat, and sheep. That is a lot of money for a state with tough draw odds.The best piece of information in this whole state section is what Washington does for the youth. If you have kids that have their hunter education and are under 16 years old, then you should be applying them for moose, goat, and  sheep.  You  will  be  able  to  apply  a  kid  for  moose, goat,  and  sheep  for  $11.40  total  for  all  three!  That’s right, it is only $3.80 to apply a youth for sheep, goat, or  moose.  If  they  are  lucky  enough  to  draw  the  tag,  it will only cost $57. Thank you Washington for treating the youth right! The raffle tags are another way to go. Just remember that you cannot buy raffle tags online or over the phone. You must buy them at a vendor in Washington. Check out this year’s raffle packages on the WDFW website.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Skyvalhunter on February 13, 2019, 05:19:43 AM
Huntin fool has always told its hunters to stay away from Wa unless you are applying for a OIL permit. That is why they don't publish a magazine dealing with Wa application period for deer and elk.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: X-Force on February 13, 2019, 06:56:57 AM
I can see non-resident youth applying, especially for OIL permits. Their cost is less than adult residents for both the application, and the tag if drawn.

I’ve always wondered that. So non res youth pay youth prices?
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Bob33 on February 13, 2019, 07:20:51 AM
I can see non-resident youth applying, especially for OIL permits. Their cost is less than adult residents for both the application, and the tag if drawn.

I’ve always wondered that. So non res youth pay youth prices?
Yes.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Karl Blanchard on February 13, 2019, 08:53:45 AM
I cannot stress this enough.  If you feel that you are "invested" into the washington draw system you need to slap yourself in the back of the head.  You paid for a chance to draw a tag, nothing more.  If you buy a losing scratch ticket do you get all worked up about it?  It's basically the same thing.  Odds on even the less desirable tags are extremely low so apply for the tags you want and dont stress about odds. For the price of a dinner date with the old lady you bought the chance to draw a hunt/hunts of a lifetime.  I dont much like our system but it's the one we are stuck with for now so embrace it for what it is, which is a small bit of added opportunity :twocents:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: BULLBLASTER on February 13, 2019, 09:17:37 AM
I cannot stress this enough.  If you feel that you are "invested" into the washington draw system you need to slap yourself in the back of the head.  You paid for a chance to draw a tag, nothing more.  If you buy a losing scratch ticket do you get all worked up about it?  It's basically the same thing.  Odds on even the less desirable tags are extremely low so apply for the tags you want and dont stress about odds. For the price of a dinner date with the old lady you bought the chance to draw a hunt/hunts of a lifetime.  I dont much like our system but it's the one we are stuck with for now so embrace it for what it is, which is a small bit of added opportunity :twocents:
:yeah:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: chester on February 13, 2019, 10:14:44 AM
Does anyone else feel bad for the poor guy who got assigned the task of figuring out the draw odds of this state? I remember hearing they were working on it a few years ago and I’m surprised they got it done before this years draw cycle. Curious if there will be any accuracy with the way we are set up.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: blackveltbowhunter on February 13, 2019, 10:40:54 AM
I cannot stress this enough.  If you feel that you are "invested" into the washington draw system you need to slap yourself in the back of the head.  You paid for a chance to draw a tag, nothing more.  If you buy a losing scratch ticket do you get all worked up about it?  It's basically the same thing.  Odds on even the less desirable tags are extremely low so apply for the tags you want and dont stress about odds. For the price of a dinner date with the old lady you bought the chance to draw a hunt/hunts of a lifetime.  I dont much like our system but it's the one we are stuck with for now so embrace it for what it is, which is a small bit of added opportunity :twocents:
:yeah:

 :yeah: Great way to summarize. I have drawn 2 quality permits in 15 years of applying neither were for the "big" units. Both permits I hunted hard, knew the ground and located animals I considered "worthy". On one I was able to connect on one of those animals, and the other I was not but walked away satisfied with the result. Both permits cumulative cost over time was less than an application in most any other state.
 
  I am likely the minority as I actually think our draw system is less screwed than many other states, at least from a NR applicant perspective. Could it be better, of course. But IMO it has less built in flaws than other point systems. Everyone has a chance. Those with loyalty get a slightly better chance every year but no guarantee.  Washington pre category is possibly the best of both worlds. Our odds have more to due with generally poor hunting, than a garbage permit system.   
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Stein on February 13, 2019, 11:10:40 AM
Does anyone else feel bad for the poor guy who got assigned the task of figuring out the draw odds of this state? I remember hearing they were working on it a few years ago and I’m surprised they got it done before this years draw cycle. Curious if there will be any accuracy with the way we are set up.

Yeah, it will be as accurate as you can get.  They have a mathematician on staff who develops computer programs for difficult states like WA who have randomness and second/third chances.  They basically program a computer to run millions of simulated draws that eventually creep into the actual odds.

Just think if you didn't know the odds of a coin flip.  If you simply flipped a coin 1,000 times and recorded the outcome, the odds would eventually get very, very close to 50.0% if you flip it enough.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: idahohuntr on February 13, 2019, 11:32:05 AM
If you feel that you are "invested" into the washington draw system you need to slap yourself in the back of the head.  You paid for a chance to draw a tag, nothing more.  If you buy a losing scratch ticket do you get all worked up about it?  It's basically the same thing. 
I've made this exact point numerous times...and it's definitely one of my criticisms against point systems...it gives folks this false sense of entitlement to a limited public resource. 

If I ran any State draw, you would have to read and accept this statement before submitting any application: Life is not fair and the world owes you nothing.   :chuckle:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Stein on February 13, 2019, 11:40:36 AM
If I was king of the world, I would probably have a point system because it keeps people applying and healthy budgets are good for managing wildlife.  I have skipped states that are purely random before, but I always scrape the money to at least get a point in places where I am collecting them.

Bonus points are the way to go in my mind, much easier to convince yourself you have a chance over preference point states where you are perpetually X years away from drawing and never getting closer.

What I don't agree with is the way WDFW publishes their "average points to draw" statistics.  That is plain deceptive in my mind for the casual hunter or those that aren't into math or statistics which is most.  If they wanted to be a bit more hones, publish the number of names in the hat for each tag last year and you could easily square your points and see where you sit.

At the end of the day, it's a lottery ticket.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: BULLBLASTER on February 13, 2019, 11:54:07 AM
If I was king of the world, I would probably have a point system because it keeps people applying and healthy budgets are good for managing wildlife.  I have skipped states that are purely random before, but I always scrape the money to at least get a point in places where I am collecting them.

Bonus points are the way to go in my mind, much easier to convince yourself you have a chance over preference point states where you are perpetually X years away from drawing and never getting closer.

What I don't agree with is the way WDFW publishes their "average points to draw" statistics.  That is plain deceptive in my mind for the casual hunter or those that aren't into math or statistics which is most.  If they wanted to be a bit more hones, publish the number of names in the hat for each tag last year and you could easily square your points and see where you sit.

At the end of the day, it's a lottery ticket.
At this point I am mostly the opposite. I am less likely to start applying in a point state than I am a random draw state. I’d rather scrape up the funds to have a chance to hunt than scrape up the funds to buy a point.  :twocents:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Karl Blanchard on February 13, 2019, 12:00:22 PM
If I was king of the world, I would probably have a point system because it keeps people applying and healthy budgets are good for managing wildlife.  I have skipped states that are purely random before, but I always scrape the money to at least get a point in places where I am collecting them.

Bonus points are the way to go in my mind, much easier to convince yourself you have a chance over preference point states where you are perpetually X years away from drawing and never getting closer.

What I don't agree with is the way WDFW publishes their "average points to draw" statistics.  That is plain deceptive in my mind for the casual hunter or those that aren't into math or statistics which is most.  If they wanted to be a bit more hones, publish the number of names in the hat for each tag last year and you could easily square your points and see where you sit.

At the end of the day, it's a lottery ticket.
At this point I am mostly the opposite. I am less likely to start applying in a point state than I am a random draw state. I’d rather scrape up the funds to have a chance to hunt than scrape up the funds to buy a point.  :twocents:
this is the issue that lots of states ie CO, WY, AZ, UT are trying to combat. The people they have hooked stay in it but there's no new blood coming into the system.  Even a guy like me who applies for EVERYTHING/EVERYWHERE has prioritized my application strategy and approach. 
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Stein on February 13, 2019, 12:10:43 PM
I don't know, I think there are plenty of people coming in still.  I just pulled AZ elk and the NRs with 1 point went up almost 2,000 from 2017 to 2018.  Assuming that a portion of the 1 pointers pulled a tag or moved to 2 points (minus those that drew and started over), there are more than 2,000 new applicants in one year alone.

For the hunter, the completely random draw is certainly the best solution today and unless something drastically changes in the number of hunters or tags.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Karl Blanchard on February 13, 2019, 12:31:33 PM
That's because they have started to implement incentives such as Utah general deer catagory, WY, AZ, etc random draw tag allocations, AZ loyalty points, etc.  Almost every state in the west is continually tweaking their system to bump new recruitment. The reality of unsustainable point systems has reared its ugly head and agencies are trying to combat it. 
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: SteelheadTed on February 13, 2019, 12:38:37 PM
I don't think many non-residents apply, it would be interesting to see the numbers.
True statement. They have to be buy a nonresident elk tag just to apply.  Not many folks doing that!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Bingo, this is the reason Washington isn't on most non-resident's radar.  Washington has positioned itself as a hard place to hunt (and in Western WA it is) and ask a lot of money of non-residents to hunt here.  The value proposition isn't there compared to a number of other western states. 

It's that simple.  As a non-resident, if you can hunt Colorado for less money, have as good or better of an experience why they heck would you come to Western Washington?

What I don't understand is residents complaining about Washington.  Sure, all things being equal there are a number of western states I'd rather hunt but that has as much to do with change of scenery and getting away from home as it does opportunity at animals. 

Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: bearpaw on February 13, 2019, 01:06:27 PM
I can see non-resident youth applying, especially for OIL permits. Their cost is less than adult residents for both the application, and the tag if drawn.

I’ve always wondered that. So non res youth pay youth prices?
Yes.

the same in Idaho too, youth have good opportunities in many states  ;)
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Karl Blanchard on February 13, 2019, 01:31:35 PM
I can see non-resident youth applying, especially for OIL permits. Their cost is less than adult residents for both the application, and the tag if drawn.

I’ve always wondered that. So non res youth pay youth prices?
Yes.

the same in Idaho too, youth have good opportunities in many states  ;)
new Mexico is the one that blows me away.  Some killer youth tags to be had!
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: MerriamMagician on February 13, 2019, 01:46:19 PM
It seems that more and more people are agreeing now that point systems are unsustainable. With most people as well as state agencies now aware of this, what measures, processes, and procedures does everyone foresee happening in the future to address the issue? Will game departments abandon point systems and come up with new systems? Will they simply be tweaked and reworked further? There is a lot of uncertainty about what the future is going to hold in regards to this issue. The whole situation makes me uneasy. Change is likely coming, its just a matter of when and will it be effective or not?
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Stein on February 13, 2019, 02:57:03 PM
As long as the money comes in, I only see minor tweaks.  Look at the preference point creep, people still buy and will never draw in many, many places.  It takes a fair amount of research to understand that.  Most people see that they drew with 13 point last year and think they just need 5 more years till their turn.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Bob33 on February 13, 2019, 03:22:24 PM
The preference point system was “sold” on the premise that more points equaled improved draw odds:

“Building special permit points gives applicants a better chance in the random drawings. Each special permit category has a separate drawing.

The special permit drawing system is similar to pulling tickets out of a barrel. Building points gives an applicant more tickets. The system also squares points. That means a person with one point ends up with one entry (1x1=1) and a person with 10 points ends up with 100 entries (10x10=100).”


I don’t see the preference point system changing in any significant way in the foreseeable future. If someone who has applied for 20 years is told that next year he would go into the hat with the same  odds as everyone else, a lot of them would scream. Scrapping it all together would probably lead to a slew of lawsuits.

There simply aren't enough permits to allocate all of them and “buy out” the top point holders in most categories. Even if there were, it would not be fair to those with fewer points to be told they had no chance to draw. Perhaps there is a way to phase out the system without punishing certain participants, but it would very difficult (and costly) to implement and most likely wouldn't be completely fair anyway.

I think over time the system will stabilize itself at a lower number of applicants: fewer hunters, fewer hunters willing to participate in the system, and better odds for the remaining applicants.

Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Branden on February 13, 2019, 03:47:12 PM
I drew a bull tag for the blues as a non res. It took me two tries as a non res to draw. And like stated you do not get a refund if you don’t draw. You buy the tag plus pay over $100 to apply per species.

As for fixing point systems and making it easier to draw some states could really get fixed and some not so much.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: bobcat on February 13, 2019, 03:48:17 PM
Do away with most, or all, general deer and elk seasons, and people would cycle through their points much faster. Don't draw a permit, you don't hunt that year. People would be much less willing to hold out for 20 years waiting for that trophy unit.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: idahohuntr on February 13, 2019, 03:57:29 PM
It seems that more and more people are agreeing now that point systems are unsustainable. With most people as well as state agencies now aware of this, what measures, processes, and procedures does everyone foresee happening in the future to address the issue? Will game departments abandon point systems and come up with new systems? Will they simply be tweaked and reworked further? There is a lot of uncertainty about what the future is going to hold in regards to this issue. The whole situation makes me uneasy. Change is likely coming, its just a matter of when and will it be effective or not?
I see a few changes on the horizon - all of which will be implemented slowly and phased in as the outcry to major or sudden changes would not be politically acceptable.

My predictions:

1. States in a true preference system will began allocating more and more tags to random draws to keep newcomers interested. States with extremely low odds bonus point systems will also likely do the same. @huntnphool has described a process that over many years would wean states off points...but I'm not sure there is an appetite for that in the foreseeable future.

2. Costs to play will continue to rise at a faster pace than we've seen previously...continuing increases to point and app fees.   

3. For some states, particularly those with horrible draw odds, we will begin seeing tweaks to improve odds as more folks become savvy to just how bad the odds are.  Things like limiting choices, increasing costs to apply, fronting tag fees etc. will become more common.

4. With existing data and information so widely available on how points systems have "worked"...Idaho, New Mexico, and Wyoming (for resident deer/elk) will never adopt a point system of any kind.   
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: actionshooter on February 13, 2019, 08:16:51 PM
Do away with most, or all, general deer and elk seasons, and people would cycle through their points much faster. Don't draw a permit, you don't hunt that year. People would be much less willing to hold out for 20 years waiting for that trophy unit.
Washington's hunter population already took a hit when the timber companies closed there gates, ending general seasons would be the final nail in the coffin for hunting in Wa. A lot of people would quit hunting completely if they couldn't get a tag every year.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: bobcat on February 13, 2019, 08:40:44 PM
Do away with most, or all, general deer and elk seasons, and people would cycle through their points much faster. Don't draw a permit, you don't hunt that year. People would be much less willing to hold out for 20 years waiting for that trophy unit.
Washington's hunter population already took a hit when the timber companies closed there gates, ending general seasons would be the final nail in the coffin for hunting in Wa. A lot of people would quit hunting completely if they couldn't get a tag every year.

There are other states that don't have unlimited over the counter tags for all of their deer and elk seasons, states such as Oregon, Nevada, and Colorado. I'm confused as to why it works in those states but can't work here.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Stein on February 13, 2019, 08:47:05 PM
It won't work here because WDFW doesn't have a reason to do otherwise.  In the states you mentioned, if they opened a joke spike season and it was the circus that it is here there would be a revolt.  Same with the draw.  In those states, their game agency is tied to the hunting and fishing community and generally acts in the best interest of game and sportsmen.  In WA, it is tied to the politics in Olympia.  Sell tags, who cares what happens.  Maybe we get zero elk, maybe we crush the herd.  Either way, we pay our dues and don't complain very loudly.

Our state will happily sue certain things, but when is the last time they went to bat in court on behalf of sportsmen?  Think about that for a minute, what are the resources of WA compared to ID, MT or WY?  Why are they the ones constantly going to bat over these issues while we take it in the shorts every time?

Can anyone remember the state getting involved in substantial court action on behalf of recreational hunters or fishermen?
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Ghost Hunter on February 15, 2019, 03:14:34 PM
I can see non-resident youth applying, especially for OIL permits. Their cost is less than adult residents for both the application, and the tag if drawn.

I’ve always wondered that. So non res youth pay youth prices?
Yes.

the same in Idaho too, youth have good opportunities in many states  ;)

 :yeah:  And get to hunt first in some.   :chuckle:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: HoofsandWings on February 16, 2019, 11:29:20 AM
Years before I retired, I wrote such programs. They are not difficult to program, but you need access to a statistical software package.
It has to do with rare events, like the odds of a meteor striking your house or traffic accidents in a one mile stretch of a rural road.
If you pick only one selection with 5 permits, the odds are long, but if you select 3 or 4, the odds are greatly increased in your favor.
When I drew all 3 oils in a 6 year period, that is what I did.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: bearpaw on February 27, 2019, 07:09:09 AM
I think some Point systems are self perpetuating because everyone that's spent many years applying has a large investment. In Washington alone you can burn $200 per year on applications and gain a point per specie. Some hunters have a 20+ year investment in points for some species, they are probably not going to quietly let point systems be ended.

There are different types of point systems, true Preference point systems (like CO) where only the applicants with the most points can draw, Bonus point systems (like WA) where points give applicants additional chances in the draw, and a mix of Bonus and Preference Point systems (like UT) that give a percentage of tags to the applicants with the most bonus points and a percentage of the tags to randomly drawn applicants regardless of how many points you have. In the bonus point system and mixed systems a person entering the draw for the first time has a small fraction of a chance of drawing. In a true Preference point system first time applicants in drawings with more applicants than tags have no chance of drawing until they have enough points to be included the group of applicants with the most points equal to the number of available tags in that given year.

Preference: https://huntscore.com/blog/preference-points-understanding-the-system-in-colorado
Bonus: https://wdfw.wa.gov/help/categories/Hunting/Special+Hunt+Permits/Special+Hunt+Permits+%26+the+Weighted+Point+System/
Mix: https://wildlife.utah.gov/rules-regulations/988-r657-62--drawing-application-procedures.html

No matter if a state has a point system or if a state (like ID) has no point system, in most cases there are more applicants than animals available to hunt. That's why there is a draw for that species. The only real way to increase draw odds for any specie is to increase the population of those animals or decrease the number of applicants. Different views of accomplishing either of those goals is debatable on many points.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: rosscrazyelk on March 17, 2019, 08:06:34 AM
Not hard to figure out the odds suck.
Also unless it was a special draw such as rinellas.  You never see on you tube a washington hunt. Only videos are from the people who are residents who draw. Never see the the shows come here.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Magnum_Willys on March 17, 2019, 08:31:43 AM
I think Bobcat computed the odds a few years ago??  Any updates on the gohunt numbers or timeline?  For odds over 1:100 its just silly not to put in for easier units I would think.    :dunno:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Ghost Hunter on March 17, 2019, 08:36:20 AM
Got to find that side door, like the college entry system.   :peep:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: D-Rock425 on March 17, 2019, 06:34:38 PM
Not hard to figure out the odds suck.
Also unless it was a special draw such as rinellas.  You never see on you tube a washington hunt. Only videos are from the people who are residents who draw. Never see the the shows come here.
I've seen whitetail shows here.  You don't see any shows come here for elk because everything is draw only on east side and you have to buy tag unlike other states that give refunds if you're unsuccessful in draw.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: full choke on March 17, 2019, 07:28:21 PM
Not hard to figure out the odds suck.
Also unless it was a special draw such as rinellas.  You never see on you tube a washington hunt. Only videos are from the people who are residents who draw. Never see the the shows come here.

Good.
Why would we EVER want a show to film here? Why would that EVER be a good thing?
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: X-Force on March 17, 2019, 08:10:58 PM
Not hard to figure out the odds suck.
Also unless it was a special draw such as rinellas.  You never see on you tube a washington hunt. Only videos are from the people who are residents who draw. Never see the the shows come here.

Good.
Why would we EVER want a show to film here? Why would that EVER be a good thing?

Not true. TV types come take advantage of OTC mule deer, “Roosevelt” elk and “coastal” blacktail... there are multiple treads on here about these hunts.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Falcon on March 17, 2019, 08:12:31 PM
I cannot stress this enough.  If you feel that you are "invested" into the washington draw system you need to slap yourself in the back of the head.  You paid for a chance to draw a tag, nothing more.  If you buy a losing scratch ticket do you get all worked up about it?  It's basically the same thing.  Odds on even the less desirable tags are extremely low so apply for the tags you want and dont stress about odds. For the price of a dinner date with the old lady you bought the chance to draw a hunt/hunts of a lifetime.  I dont much like our system but it's the one we are stuck with for now so embrace it for what it is, which is a small bit of added opportunity :twocents:

 :yeah:

I agree with these points.   I will argue with anyone that says points don’t matter.  I also agree that point creep is happening.   I have max points for sheep but so do about 300 other guys.   That’s far better odds than the guy with 1 point and substantially better than most.   Having said that I would have to be extremely lucky to draw in my lifetime but that won’t deter me from applying.   
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: X-Force on March 17, 2019, 08:17:44 PM
I cannot stress this enough.  If you feel that you are "invested" into the washington draw system you need to slap yourself in the back of the head.  You paid for a chance to draw a tag, nothing more.  If you buy a losing scratch ticket do you get all worked up about it?  It's basically the same thing.  Odds on even the less desirable tags are extremely low so apply for the tags you want and dont stress about odds. For the price of a dinner date with the old lady you bought the chance to draw a hunt/hunts of a lifetime.  I dont much like our system but it's the one we are stuck with for now so embrace it for what it is, which is a small bit of added opportunity :twocents:

 :yeah:

I agree with these points.   I will argue with anyone that says points don’t matter.  I also agree that point creep is happening.   I have max points for sheep but so do about 300 other guys.   That’s far better odds than the guy with 1 point and substantially better than most.   Having said that I would have to be extremely lucky to draw in my lifetime but that won’t deter me from applying.   

Honest question. Is 0.3% far better than 0.0012%.

Both have no statistical odds of drawing.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Stein on March 18, 2019, 05:00:38 AM
I wouldn't even say that WA has point creep for OIL, the odds are so low and no preference point portion of the draw.  I think it will really open some eyes when the true odds come out.  With the garbage data WDFW is putting out, I would think that GoHunt is having a tough time with it.  I'm not sure how they can even work with incorrect data.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: andrew_in_idaho on March 18, 2019, 06:50:51 AM
It seems that more and more people are agreeing now that point systems are unsustainable. With most people as well as state agencies now aware of this, what measures, processes, and procedures does everyone foresee happening in the future to address the issue? Will game departments abandon point systems and come up with new systems? Will they simply be tweaked and reworked further? There is a lot of uncertainty about what the future is going to hold in regards to this issue. The whole situation makes me uneasy. Change is likely coming, its just a matter of when and will it be effective or not?
I see a few changes on the horizon - all of which will be implemented slowly and phased in as the outcry to major or sudden changes would not be politically acceptable.

My predictions:

1. States in a true preference system will began allocating more and more tags to random draws to keep newcomers interested. States with extremely low odds bonus point systems will also likely do the same. @huntnphool has described a process that over many years would wean states off points...but I'm not sure there is an appetite for that in the foreseeable future.

2. Costs to play will continue to rise at a faster pace than we've seen previously...continuing increases to point and app fees.   

3. For some states, particularly those with horrible draw odds, we will begin seeing tweaks to improve odds as more folks become savvy to just how bad the odds are.  Things like limiting choices, increasing costs to apply, fronting tag fees etc. will become more common.

4. With existing data and information so widely available on how points systems have "worked"...Idaho, New Mexico, and Wyoming (for resident deer/elk) will never adopt a point system of any kind.

I wouldn’t be so sure that Idaho, New Mexico and Wyoming(residents) won’t implement point systems soon. It seems like we have to fight one off every 3-4 years here in Idaho, I’m guessing we are about due for our next fight and every year more idiots come out of the woodwork after the draws to complain that they don’t draw on tags with 2% draw odds so obviously the random draw is broken. Wyoming just had another fight about resident preference points this winter. I don’t know much about New Mexico, maybe they are smarter than most.

The unfortunate fact is that despite the failures of preference/bonus point systems the majority of the populace still thinks they work.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Stein on March 18, 2019, 07:19:36 AM
When you look at NR tags, I believe every state is basically after the same goal - bring in revenue for wildlife management.  I don't see any state doing it to keep the heritage alive, sharing their state with the rest of the world or anything like that.  They need money, legislatures are generally cutting funding over time and resident hunters and fishermen flip out if they have to pick up the entire tab, or even relatively modest fee increases.

Thus, basic economics come into play when departments look at their NR program (except in WA where politics plays #1, 2, and 3 in the top three).  If you read the documents that departments put out prior to NR changes (fee increases or system changes), it basically boils down to a) what do other states do, b) where are we relative to them and c) what is the revenue change we expect.

In my mind, NM would change their NR program if they thought it would be overall more beneficial to the department and thus the wildlife in the state.  Montana will eventually raise prices because they are getting more applicants than they have general tags.  Refundable licenses are going away, application fees are increasing and on down the line.

I also think states like NM and ID may split how they handle NR and resident tags.  They could have one side preference points and the other side random draws.

Finally, any state with really hard to draw tags overall (like WA) will have tons of pressure to move to a points system as the general population thinks it will help them and shift the tags to the guys who are older and away from the young whipper snappers that haven't earned the right to the tags like they did.  States where you can draw good tags every couple years and great tags every ten years don't have the same pressure as everyone is moderately happy.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: blackveltbowhunter on March 18, 2019, 07:36:21 AM
Then quit
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: emac on March 18, 2019, 07:38:36 AM
As a new hunter I continue to find these topics fascinating. We're told over and over that hunter numbers are dwindling and yet we have these systems in place where 300+ people have max points for a lottery draw and even out of *that* sample size, people aren't sure they'll ever draw. What hope does that leave anyone else?

I have to ask myself: If we have fewer and fewer hunters and yet these systems are still so messed up, how did anyone imagine these systems were ever going to work with previously higher numbers of hunters?

This entire thing blows my mind, and it really makes me wonder how anyone plans to grow this sport when I'll be telling my son: "If you start applying now, you may be able to hunt a sheep by the time you're 75."
I can't think of another hobby or sport that's anywhere near as messed up as this one is, when it comes to this sort of stuff. Hell, I could pay a (large) sum of cash to fly my son to see the superbowl live, but I can't get him to go on a quality elk hunt? How is that a thing?
You can pay a large sum of cash every year to take your son on a quality elk hunt

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: MtnMuley on March 18, 2019, 07:49:38 AM
Then quit

 :chuckle:

You can take your son on a quality elk hunt across the border in Idaho or Oregon if you chose.  Hell, I know several guys who have amazing quality elk hunts over the counter here in WA on the westside and in the NE.  I can also tell you that they put in countless miles on foot over the years and have things dialed in. 

As for telling your son about hunting sheep, I'd highly recommend you stressing that it is an extreme privilege to be able to harvest any wild bighorn.  Most all hunters will never get the chance to do.  Apply knowing there's an extreme long shot at ever drawing a tag, or don't even start applying in the first place.   For me, a day trip to just "hang out" with the sheep is pretty rewarding in itself.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Stein on March 18, 2019, 08:05:09 AM
I think the point he is trying to make is that in points systems with creep, the system is set up such that if you weren't in the system on this date, you will never draw a tag.  It isn't that you didn't "put in your time", it's a simple fact that the tags are reserved for a certain group of hunters that were applying on or before a date.  If you are younger or newer to the hunting world, tough luck.

That isn't a way to encourage growth in the numbers of hunters.  Sure, few will actually draw the tag, but if you have a community that says, "Hey it's awesome to go on a sheep hunt, but you will never do it because those of us that are older pushed for a system that keeps all the tags for us", you aren't going to benefit the community.

Look at the situation in WA, a bunch of people were in support of taking a bunch of youth moose tags so we could leave as many regular and senior tags available as possible.

Look at the senior tags themselves, those are tags taken away from both youth and non-senior adults.

Just think of what would happen if we did this with salmon fishing.  We have a limited quota and it is divided evenly - anyone that wants to buy a license and fish can do it.  What crazy stuff would happen if we reserved 10% of our quota for people over 65 and another 20% for people that have bought licenses for at least 10 years?

I haven't heard an argument I can get behind that says that for the benefit of the game and hunting community, there should be anything other than a complete random draw for limited tags.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Katmai Guy on March 18, 2019, 08:11:25 AM
 :yeah:  but being part of the "older" half of the WA hunting population with max points for OILs, we were sold a system back in the day that was not explained totally or I missed it.  If you got rid of the final single number per category used to draw and used total number of applications per person in a category as the final draw, would this not increase the odds for the guys with more points? Even though minutely?
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: andrew_in_idaho on March 18, 2019, 08:39:10 AM
:yeah:  but being part of the "older" half of the WA hunting population with max points for OILs, we were sold a system back in the day that was not explained totally or I missed it.  If you got rid of the final single number per category used to draw and used total number of applications per person in a category as the final draw, would this not increase the odds for the guys with more points? Even though minutely?
I think I see what you are getting at here, and no it wouldn’t change the odds, if you have 10 bonus points then you have 100 random numbers, essentially when they assign the random numbers they are drawing those 100 random numbers from a bucket and your lowest one is just the 1st one drawn, it would still have to be drawn before others lowest or 1st ticket pulled from the bucket.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Matth on March 18, 2019, 08:46:38 AM
Then quit

 :chuckle:

You can take your son on a quality elk hunt across the border in Idaho or Oregon if you chose.  Hell, I know several guys who have amazing quality elk hunts over the counter here in WA on the westside and in the NE.  I can also tell you that they put in countless miles on foot over the years and have things dialed in. 

As for telling your son about hunting sheep, I'd highly recommend you stressing that it is an extreme privilege to be able to harvest any wild bighorn.  Most all hunters will never get the chance to do.  Apply knowing there's an extreme long shot at ever drawing a tag, or don't even start applying in the first place.   For me, a day trip to just "hang out" with the sheep is pretty rewarding in itself.

I agree with all of that, and I definitely picked one of the more extreme examples. I would love to talk to these folks that have amazing quality OTC elk hunts in western WA! It's so damn crowded over here, I can't imagine going somewhere that didn't feel like a shopping mall.
I love putting in long hard days - it's one of my favorite parts of this sport.

I love activities where i feel like I am building towards success. When I first heard about the points system I thought: "Cool! I can work towards that, and it might take a while, but I'll get there!" and then I started hearing from people who had been in it since day one, and my enthusiasm waned.


I have amazing quality hunts on the west side of Washington, and Oregon just about every year. Can there be a lot of people at times? sure, but it is not that hard to get away from people if that is truly the goal. I think one of the most important things i could stress to some one new to hunting in western Washington, and Oregon is to manage personal expectations, it takes a lot of time to get good at this stuff.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Matth on March 18, 2019, 09:03:54 AM
Then quit

 :chuckle:

You can take your son on a quality elk hunt across the border in Idaho or Oregon if you chose.  Hell, I know several guys who have amazing quality elk hunts over the counter here in WA on the westside and in the NE.  I can also tell you that they put in countless miles on foot over the years and have things dialed in. 

As for telling your son about hunting sheep, I'd highly recommend you stressing that it is an extreme privilege to be able to harvest any wild bighorn.  Most all hunters will never get the chance to do.  Apply knowing there's an extreme long shot at ever drawing a tag, or don't even start applying in the first place.   For me, a day trip to just "hang out" with the sheep is pretty rewarding in itself.

I agree with all of that, and I definitely picked one of the more extreme examples. I would love to talk to these folks that have amazing quality OTC elk hunts in western WA! It's so damn crowded over here, I can't imagine going somewhere that didn't feel like a shopping mall.
I love putting in long hard days - it's one of my favorite parts of this sport.

I love activities where i feel like I am building towards success. When I first heard about the points system I thought: "Cool! I can work towards that, and it might take a while, but I'll get there!" and then I started hearing from people who had been in it since day one, and my enthusiasm waned.


I have amazing quality hunts on the west side of Washington, and Oregon just about every year. Can there be a lot of people at times? sure, but it is not that hard to get away from people if that is truly the goal. I think one of the most important things i could stress to some one new to hunting in western Washington, and Oregon is to manage personal expectations, it takes a lot of time to get good at this stuff.

It's compounded by the fact that as a new hunter you have no spots to inherit from friends or family. Every inch of ground I've hunted has been scouted by me, on foot. My mom tells me about the spots my grandpa used to hunt elk but they're all lottery only now. New hunters are left to just wing it.

Good thing I love scouting ;)

I agree with you, and i also agree that we have a broken system as it relates to points, and draw systems. What i would also like to point out as a matter of my own opinion is there is a lot of people in the hunting community that feel as though they have some claim to these OIL tags, and other sought after tags, and that is just not realistic as far as i am concerned. I view them as some form of bonus that i may some day get to take part in.


Very few places that got handed down to most of us over the years by our elders are worth a *censored* any longer, and that leaves most of us scouting a lot. I am the only member of my family to even hunt in Oregon, and it took several years to figure some stuff out. It's a process for sure, surely not a sport for instant gratification.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: grundy53 on March 18, 2019, 09:29:03 AM
Then quit

 :chuckle:

You can take your son on a quality elk hunt across the border in Idaho or Oregon if you chose.  Hell, I know several guys who have amazing quality elk hunts over the counter here in WA on the westside and in the NE.  I can also tell you that they put in countless miles on foot over the years and have things dialed in. 

As for telling your son about hunting sheep, I'd highly recommend you stressing that it is an extreme privilege to be able to harvest any wild bighorn.  Most all hunters will never get the chance to do.  Apply knowing there's an extreme long shot at ever drawing a tag, or don't even start applying in the first place.   For me, a day trip to just "hang out" with the sheep is pretty rewarding in itself.

I agree with all of that, and I definitely picked one of the more extreme examples. I would love to talk to these folks that have amazing quality OTC elk hunts in western WA! It's so damn crowded over here, I can't imagine going somewhere that didn't feel like a shopping mall.
I love putting in long hard days - it's one of my favorite parts of this sport.

I love activities where i feel like I am building towards success. When I first heard about the points system I thought: "Cool! I can work towards that, and it might take a while, but I'll get there!" and then I started hearing from people who had been in it since day one, and my enthusiasm waned.


I have amazing quality hunts on the west side of Washington, and Oregon just about every year. Can there be a lot of people at times? sure, but it is not that hard to get away from people if that is truly the goal. I think one of the most important things i could stress to some one new to hunting in western Washington, and Oregon is to manage personal expectations, it takes a lot of time to get good at this stuff.

It's compounded by the fact that as a new hunter you have no spots to inherit from friends or family. Every inch of ground I've hunted has been scouted by me, on foot. My mom tells me about the spots my grandpa used to hunt elk but they're all lottery only now. New hunters are left to just wing it.

Good thing I love scouting ;)
I do pretty good hunting elk in western Washington. Sure I've inherited some spots  as you say but I spend most of my off season looking for new spots because one of the big things with hunting elk in western Washington is spots change all the time. Your honey hole gets logged or the timber patch around it. So the elk change their behavior. Or a old dog hair patch grows up and gets huntable. Or someone just beats you to your spot. Its always evolving.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Karl Blanchard on March 18, 2019, 10:12:19 AM
New hunters have been swinging it for a long long time.  The struggle is not unique to you my man.  If anything you have it far better than folks before you.  Gear is better, scouting tools are better, and access to information and other hunters who can teach is FAR better  :twocents:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: MtnMuley on March 18, 2019, 11:59:03 AM
New hunters have been swinging it for a long long time.  The struggle is not unique to you my man.  If anything you have it far better than folks before you.  Gear is better, scouting tools are better, and access to information and other hunters who can teach is FAR better  :twocents:

I've heard that 10% of the hunters harvest 90% of the animals. I think everything you said is likely true. I think that doesn't change the fact that the sport is losing participation rapidly and we're all sitting around clinging to a system that we know 1.) doesn't work and 2.) discourages new hunters.

But never mind what I have to say about it, just watch the numbers.
I will guarantee that 10% of the hunters don't harvest 90% of the game.  However, there is a good portion of seasoned hunters who harvest significantly larger percentages than your average "couple of weekends a year" type hunters. 

Also, it's hard to nevermind what you have to say about it when you keep talking about it. :twocents:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Karl Blanchard on March 18, 2019, 12:04:08 PM
Washingtons draw system works just fine.  People apply for a chance to win a tag.  Sometimes you win, other times you lose.  For species like moose sheep and goat, there are simply too few tags for so many applicants.  Literally every state in the lower 48 have the same issue.  For species like deer and Elk, usually when guys are sitting on Max points it's because they are applying for the top-tier tags in the state that have incredibly low draw odds. Or they have just been building points and not actually applying. If someone falls into that category that is no one's fault but their own.

I have said it a million times on this forum that if people started looking at the drawers as an added opportunity at a good tag not something that is owed to them they would have less stress in their lives. You paid for a chance to win and you didn't win. It's as simple as that the next year you'll pay for a chance to win again and who knows you might be the lucky one. I had a good friend draw a Moose tag last year with three points. He would not have gotten that tag if he had not played the game.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: bobcat on March 18, 2019, 12:06:42 PM
The point system/poor draw odds here in Washington should be mostly irrelevant in the lack of recruitment of new hunters, since the majority of the hunting in this state is with over the counter deer and elk tags. When I first started hunting around 35 years ago, most people didn't bother applying for any special permits. I think a large percentage of the hunters back then didn't even know the special permits existed. Even now there's plenty of hunting that can be done without ever applying for a special permit. The biggest issue now for new hunters, in my opinion, is a lack of places to hunt close to where they live.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Karl Blanchard on March 18, 2019, 12:09:21 PM
Some of the very best hunters I know picked it up late in life.  Hadno direction but had the drive to succeed.  I believe Part of the issue with dwindling Hunter recruitment is the fact that we live in an immediate gratification Society. If people don't have instant success at something or it's hard, they just give up or don't try. 

I Turkey hunted for 6 years before I even heard my first gobble.  God I wanted to give that crap up but the drive to accomplish a goal was greater than my desire to hit the snooze button at 3 a.m.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Karl Blanchard on March 18, 2019, 12:11:04 PM
The point system/poor draw odds here in Washington should be mostly irrelevant in the lack of recruitment of new hunters, since the majority of the hunting in this state is with over the counter deer and elk tags. When I first started hunting around 35 years ago, most people didn't bother applying for any special permits. I think a large percentage of the hunters back then didn't even know the special permits existed. Even now there's plenty of hunting that can be done without ever applying for a special permit. The biggest issue now for new hunters, in my opinion, is a lack of places to hunt close to where they live.
:yeah: study after study points to lack/loss of access as the number one driver in hunter recruitment and retention.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: andrew_in_idaho on March 18, 2019, 12:32:08 PM
Some of the very best hunters I know picked it up late in life.  Hadno direction but had the drive to succeed.  I believe Part of the issue with dwindling Hunter recruitment is the fact that we live in an immediate gratification Society. If people don't have instant success at something or it's hard, they just give up or don't try. 

I Turkey hunted for 6 years before I even heard my first gobble.  God I wanted to give that crap up but the drive to accomplish a goal was greater than my desire to hit the snooze button at 3 a.m.

That's a cop-out. The instant-gratification thing is true of our society, for sure, but to suggest *that* is why it's hard for new hunters is pure nonsense. Six years in gets you a four year degree and almost through a masters degree. To suggest that someone who doesn't have that level of commitment to the sport is looking for instant success is the kind of condescending attitude that belongs in the woods.
By yourself.
You’re proving his point, it takes a level of commitment and a drive to succeed to be successful at hunting, you can’t just pick up a rifle and head out to the woods and ask the deer to jump in the back of your truck, that is why “instant gratification society” does not stick with it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Karl Blanchard on March 18, 2019, 12:33:34 PM
Some of the very best hunters I know picked it up late in life.  Hadno direction but had the drive to succeed.  I believe Part of the issue with dwindling Hunter recruitment is the fact that we live in an immediate gratification Society. If people don't have instant success at something or it's hard, they just give up or don't try. 

I Turkey hunted for 6 years before I even heard my first gobble.  God I wanted to give that crap up but the drive to accomplish a goal was greater than my desire to hit the snooze button at 3 a.m.

That's a cop-out. The instant-gratification thing is true of our society, for sure, but to suggest *that* is why it's hard for new hunters is pure nonsense. Six years in gets you a four year degree and almost through a masters degree. To suggest that someone who doesn't have that level of commitment to the sport is looking for instant success is the kind of condescending attitude that belongs in the woods.
By yourself.
settle down and read again sir.  PART of the issue is what I said, aka one of multiple reasons.  I'm aware that you are a new Hunter but I know of many new Hunters who absolutely gave up for that exact reason so to say it's a cop out or not true is not an accurate statement.

The point behind the Turkey story is that I didnt have anyone to show me how to do it.  I had to figure that crap out on my own.  There was no internet, YouTube, etc.  I had an old knight and hale how to call cassette and that was it.  I kept grinding until i figured it out.

If you want to get nasty and throw in sideways insults about my attitude belonging in the woods by myself that's fine. Probably dont wanna take a head count of folks on this forum alone that I have helped publicly as well as through PM though  :tup:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: HoofsandWings on March 18, 2019, 12:59:41 PM
A new hunter should hone his skills before applying for a permit. There are lots of animals that you can hunt without a permit.
My advice is meet a seasoned hunter and apply for a group permit.  If you get the permit, as a newbie, there are dishes to wash, wood to chop, meals to make, clothes to wash in addition to hunting.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: grundy53 on March 18, 2019, 01:39:07 PM
Well said!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Bob33 on March 18, 2019, 01:39:07 PM
I always consider permits a bonus and don't rely on them. To me every animal taken legally and ethically is a trophy. There are quite a few factors leading to declines in hunter numbers. These are the ones I think are higher on the list:

Loss of land access is clearly a major factor.

Lack of mentors. Many of us started hunting with someone to help us learn the ropes.

Greater emphasis on big game. We drew up hunting band tailed pigeons, rabbits, upland birds, and waterfowl. One deer hunt and maybe one elk hunt per year.
Average success for deer in Washington is something like 25%; elk is less than 10%. With band-tailed pigeons we’d burn through a box of shells a day. Many of the places we used to freely hunt pheasants have none now and those that do have no access. It’s tougher to stay committed when you may get to shoot once every ten years. Couple loss of small game opportunity with losses to ungulates due to predation and other factors and it all adds up.

Travel times. We would leave Seattle after school/work on Friday afternoons and drive to Bethel Ridge to hunt elk. I don’t think we’d get out of Seattle now by the time we’d have been camping back then.

Busy lifestyles.

There seem to be far more distractions now. Youth are drawn to electronic devices that didn't exist when I started hunting.

Social pressures and urbanization: hunters make up 3% to 4% of our state's population.

Desire for quicker gratification. I hunted elk for 15 years and saw one legal bull. I doubt too many younger hunters would tolerate that now.


Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: grundy53 on March 18, 2019, 01:41:25 PM
The point system/poor draw odds here in Washington should be mostly irrelevant in the lack of recruitment of new hunters, since the majority of the hunting in this state is with over the counter deer and elk tags. When I first started hunting around 35 years ago, most people didn't bother applying for any special permits. I think a large percentage of the hunters back then didn't even know the special permits existed. Even now there's plenty of hunting that can be done without ever applying for a special permit. The biggest issue now for new hunters, in my opinion, is a lack of places to hunt close to where they live.
Exactly. Access to good habit is getting harder/more expensive in this state. On top of that in mule deer country good habitat doesn't necessarily mean there are deer there.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: grundy53 on March 18, 2019, 01:42:55 PM
Some of the very best hunters I know picked it up late in life.  Hadno direction but had the drive to succeed.  I believe Part of the issue with dwindling Hunter recruitment is the fact that we live in an immediate gratification Society. If people don't have instant success at something or it's hard, they just give up or don't try. 

I Turkey hunted for 6 years before I even heard my first gobble.  God I wanted to give that crap up but the drive to accomplish a goal was greater than my desire to hit the snooze button at 3 a.m.

That's a cop-out. The instant-gratification thing is true of our society, for sure, but to suggest *that* is why it's hard for new hunters is pure nonsense. Six years in gets you a four year degree and almost through a masters degree. To suggest that someone who doesn't have that level of commitment to the sport is looking for instant success is the kind of condescending attitude that belongs in the woods.
By yourself.
settle down and read again sir.  PART of the issue is what I said, aka one of multiple reasons.  I'm aware that you are a new Hunter but I know of many new Hunters who absolutely gave up for that exact reason so to say it's a cop out or not true is not an accurate statement.

The point behind the Turkey story is that I didnt have anyone to show me how to do it.  I had to figure that crap out on my own.  There was no internet, YouTube, etc.  I had an old knight and hale how to call cassette and that was it.  I kept grinding until i figured it out.

If you want to get nasty and throw in sideways insults about my attitude belonging in the woods by myself that's fine. Probably dont wanna take a head count of folks on this forum alone that I have helped publicly as well as through PM though  :tup:
:yeah: Karl has helped out a ton of folks on here. Me included.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Karl Blanchard on March 18, 2019, 01:51:07 PM
I always consider permits a bonus and don't rely on them. To me every animal taken legally and ethically is a trophy. There are quite a few factors leading to declines in hunter numbers. These are the ones I think are higher on the list:

Loss of land access is clearly a major factor.

Lack of mentors. Many of us started hunting with someone to help us learn the ropes.

Greater emphasis on big game. We drew up hunting band tailed pigeons, rabbits, upland birds, and waterfowl. One deer hunt and maybe one elk hunt per year.
Average success for deer in Washington is something like 25%; elk is less than 10%. With band-tailed pigeons we’d burn through a box of shells a day. Many of the places we used to freely hunt pheasants have none now and those that do have no access. It’s tougher to stay committed when you may get to shoot once every ten years. Couple loss of small game opportunity with losses to ungulates due to predation and other factors and it all adds up.

Travel times. We would leave Seattle after school/work on Friday afternoons and drive to Bethel Ridge to hunt elk. I don’t think we’d get out of Seattle now by the time we’d have been camping back then.

Busy lifestyles.

There seem to be far more distractions now. Youth are drawn to electronic devices that didn't exist when I started hunting.

Social pressures and urbanization: hunters make up 3% to 4% of our state's population.

Desire for quicker gratification. I hunted elk for 15 years and saw one legal bull. I doubt too many younger hunters would tolerate that now.
all good points Bob.  Some I would consider excuses rather than valid reasons however(valid in my mind).

The point about small game is is an accurate one. Some of the only success me or my brothers had as kids was on small game.  Granted I'm not that old and it goes to show how quickly times have changed but most of my killing before I could drive was credited to my mother.  Much to her annoyance, I would load my boots, shotgun, and home brew bird vest in her car and make her pick me up from school and take me down to Save on Foods in Selah.  From the parking lot I would walk back past the storage units and hunt the railroad tracks.  Quiall, and ducks mainly but the occasional low flying goose, rabbit, or Wiley pheasant were all fair game.  Not even sure if it was legal but before Columbine nobody cared and I never got in trouble.  Long story short, small game is a gateway drug :chuckle:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Matth on March 18, 2019, 02:21:44 PM
I always consider permits a bonus and don't rely on them. To me every animal taken legally and ethically is a trophy. There are quite a few factors leading to declines in hunter numbers. These are the ones I think are higher on the list:

Loss of land access is clearly a major factor.

Lack of mentors. Many of us started hunting with someone to help us learn the ropes.

Greater emphasis on big game. We drew up hunting band tailed pigeons, rabbits, upland birds, and waterfowl. One deer hunt and maybe one elk hunt per year.
Average success for deer in Washington is something like 25%; elk is less than 10%. With band-tailed pigeons we’d burn through a box of shells a day. Many of the places we used to freely hunt pheasants have none now and those that do have no access. It’s tougher to stay committed when you may get to shoot once every ten years. Couple loss of small game opportunity with losses to ungulates due to predation and other factors and it all adds up.

Travel times. We would leave Seattle after school/work on Friday afternoons and drive to Bethel Ridge to hunt elk. I don’t think we’d get out of Seattle now by the time we’d have been camping back then.

Busy lifestyles.

There seem to be far more distractions now. Youth are drawn to electronic devices that didn't exist when I started hunting.

Social pressures and urbanization: hunters make up 3% to 4% of our state's population.

Desire for quicker gratification. I hunted elk for 15 years and saw one legal bull. I doubt too many younger hunters would tolerate that now.
all good points Bob.  Some I would consider excuses rather than valid reasons however(valid in my mind).

The point about small game is is an accurate one. Some of the only success me or my brothers had as kids was on small game.  Granted I'm not that old and it goes to show how quickly times have changed but most of my killing before I could drive was credited to my mother.  Much to her annoyance, I would load my boots, shotgun, and home brew bird vest in her car and make her pick me up from school and take me down to Save on Foods in Selah.  From the parking lot I would walk back past the storage units and hunt the railroad tracks.  Quiall, and ducks mainly but the occasional low flying goose, rabbit, or Wiley pheasant were all fair game.  Not even sure if it was legal but before Columbine nobody cared and I never got in trouble.  Long story short, small game is a gateway drug :chuckle:

All true things. Mine began with a red rider, and grey tree rats, that eat pretty good if i may add. I then graduated to a 4wheeler, and grouse, and rabbits. In an earlier post i made mention of instant gratification being part of a growing problem in our community, and as others have said it is just one part of it. I would also say that some of the arguments to this fact are proving this fact as some hunters lean on Washington's draw odds as if it was an excuse for the lack of production that they have chosen to hang there hat on.

In no way would i ever poke fun at the level of any persons education, but currently i am sitting on about a 30 year degree in deer, and elk hunting, and if i'm being honest with yall it's only been in about the last 10 years i would have considered myself to be good at it.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Rainier10 on March 18, 2019, 02:32:45 PM
Well I am going to be done with the draw in this state.  I drew two tags two years ago and last year both of my kids drew two tags each.  The system is flawed, I didn't draw anything last year.

I am planning to win the powerball jackpot this week.  I have been playing the same numbers since the drawing came to Washington.  Basically I have put in my time to the drawing and there is no possible way I can not win it this week.  Heck I have drawn more elusive tags in Washington than winning jackpot numbers.

Technically with the number of tickets I have purchased I should have won this past weekend but obviously my math was wrong on calculating the true odds of winning.  They are certainly in my favor this week.

 :chuckle:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Matth on March 18, 2019, 02:38:31 PM
Well I am going to be done with the draw in this state.  I drew two tags two years ago and last year both of my kids drew two tags each.  The system is flawed, I didn't draw anything last year.

I am planning to win the powerball jackpot this week.  I have been playing the same numbers since the drawing came to Washington.  Basically I have put in my time to the drawing and there is no possible way I can not win it this week.  Heck I have drawn more elusive tags in Washington than winning jackpot numbers.

Technically with the number of tickets I have purchased I should have won this past weekend but obviously my math was wrong on calculating the true odds of winning.  They are certainly in my favor this week.

 :chuckle:

This cracks me up, but the funnier part of this entire statement is, i believe there is a lot of these kinds of conversations happening.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Rainier10 on March 18, 2019, 02:55:55 PM
Well I am going to be done with the draw in this state.  I drew two tags two years ago and last year both of my kids drew two tags each.  The system is flawed, I didn't draw anything last year.

I am planning to win the powerball jackpot this week.  I have been playing the same numbers since the drawing came to Washington.  Basically I have put in my time to the drawing and there is no possible way I can not win it this week.  Heck I have drawn more elusive tags in Washington than winning jackpot numbers.

Technically with the number of tickets I have purchased I should have won this past weekend but obviously my math was wrong on calculating the true odds of winning.  They are certainly in my favor this week.

 :chuckle:

This cracks me up, but the funnier part of this entire statement is, i believe there is a lot of these kinds of conversations happening.
I totally agree.  The draw odds for really good tags in this state are slim to none.  I believe most have better odds of being in a car crash then drawing one of the great tags.

If you just want to draw a permit in this state I am thinking most can do it every 5 years if they put in for the right combination of unit, animal, sex and method of harvest.

Drawing a special permit is a bonus and even with that bonus there is no guarantee of taking an animal.

I had the colockum archery bull tag two years ago.  I had an awesome hunt and ate the tag.  Did I have an awesome time? Yep.  Did I have opportunity? You bet.  Did I see other hunters? You bet.  Did my opportunities get screwed up by other hunters, wind or errors by me?  Yes, yes and yes.  Do I get a do over?  Nope.  Name goes back in the hat and maybe I draw I with one point or have to wait another 20 years.  There is no guarantee of anything.

I will admit that the stupid point multiplier technically makes it tougher every year for the new hunters or the guys that drew the year before to draw again but in reality the odds of drawing with max points or one point aren't very good for the premium hunts.

I highly doubt there is anyone putting in for a peaches ridges cow elk tag that has max points and still can't draw.  How many people come on here and say "man I put in for whitetail doe for the 10th year in a row and still can't get drawn."?  The multiplier probably helps on these hunts because there are less people putting in for them and more tags given out.

Jackelope drew a goat tag with 9 points.  And there are a ton of guys with max points just shaking their heads.  It happens.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Rainier10 on March 18, 2019, 03:12:06 PM
Now to get the topic back on track I am super excited to see what they think the draw odds are in this state.

I am assuming that they will only publish the odds for the tough tags, OIL stuff, prestigious elk and deer hunts.

Nobody cares what the true draw odds are of blacktail on Vashon Island.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Matth on March 18, 2019, 03:12:14 PM
Well I am going to be done with the draw in this state.  I drew two tags two years ago and last year both of my kids drew two tags each.  The system is flawed, I didn't draw anything last year.

I am planning to win the powerball jackpot this week.  I have been playing the same numbers since the drawing came to Washington.  Basically I have put in my time to the drawing and there is no possible way I can not win it this week.  Heck I have drawn more elusive tags in Washington than winning jackpot numbers.

Technically with the number of tickets I have purchased I should have won this past weekend but obviously my math was wrong on calculating the true odds of winning.  They are certainly in my favor this week.

 :chuckle:

This cracks me up, but the funnier part of this entire statement is, i believe there is a lot of these kinds of conversations happening.
I totally agree.  The draw odds for really good tags in this state are slim to none.  I believe most have better odds of being in a car crash then drawing one of the great tags.

If you just want to draw a permit in this state I am thinking most can do it every 5 years if they put in for the right combination of unit, animal, sex and method of harvest.

Drawing a special permit is a bonus and even with that bonus there is no guarantee of taking an animal.

I had the colockum archery bull tag two years ago.  I had an awesome hunt and ate the tag.  Did I have an awesome time? Yep.  Did I have opportunity? You bet.  Did I see other hunters? You bet.  Did my opportunities get screwed up by other hunters, wind or errors by me?  Yes, yes and yes.  Do I get a do over?  Nope.  Name goes back in the hat and maybe I draw I with one point or have to wait another 20 years.  There is no guarantee of anything.

I will admit that the stupid point multiplier technically makes it tougher every year for the new hunters or the guys that drew the year before to draw again but in reality the odds of drawing with max points or one point aren't very good for the premium hunts.

I highly doubt there is anyone putting in for a peaches ridges cow elk tag that has max points and still can't draw.  How many people come on here and say "man I put in for whitetail doe for the 10th year in a row and still can't get drawn."?  The multiplier probably helps on these hunts because there are less people putting in for them and more tags given out.

Jackelope drew a goat tag with 9 points.  And there are a ton of guys with max points just shaking their heads.  It happens.
:yeah:
Spoken like a true realist. I have managed to save up 13 antler less elk points, and i'll tell you why. I have a 12 year old son that will be hunting his first elk season this coming November, and what better way to get him hooked on elk hunting than to hopefully draw him a cow tag, and get him some of that instant success. If it happens great, if not there is always next year, i guess he will just half to shoot a bull.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: grundy53 on March 18, 2019, 04:58:09 PM
Now to get the topic back on track I am super excited to see what they think the draw odds are in this state.

I am assuming that they will only publish the odds for the tough tags, OIL stuff, prestigious elk and deer hunts.

Nobody cares what the true draw odds are of blacktail on Vashon Island.
I doubt it. Every other state they do all antlered draws. I don't see why they wouldn't here. Plus I think I heard they are working on antlerless draws for all the states they cover.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: MtnMuley on March 18, 2019, 05:02:02 PM
It's hard enough for me to remember all the info and areas of all the other western states I apply in. I can't imagine being an outsider trying to figure out our mess. :chuckle:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: JWEBB on March 18, 2019, 11:18:41 PM
Well I am going to be done with the draw in this state.  I drew two tags two years ago and last year both of my kids drew two tags each.  The system is flawed, I didn't draw anything last year.

I am planning to win the powerball jackpot this week.  I have been playing the same numbers since the drawing came to Washington.  Basically I have put in my time to the drawing and there is no possible way I can not win it this week.  Heck I have drawn more elusive tags in Washington than winning jackpot numbers.

Technically with the number of tickets I have purchased I should have won this past weekend but obviously my math was wrong on calculating the true odds of winning.  They are certainly in my favor this week.

 :chuckle:

This cracks me up, but the funnier part of this entire statement is, i believe there is a lot of these kinds of conversations happening.
I totally agree.  The draw odds for really good tags in this state are slim to none.  I believe most have better odds of being in a car crash then drawing one of the great tags.

If you just want to draw a permit in this state I am thinking most can do it every 5 years if they put in for the right combination of unit, animal, sex and method of harvest.

Drawing a special permit is a bonus and even with that bonus there is no guarantee of taking an animal.

I had the colockum archery bull tag two years ago.  I had an awesome hunt and ate the tag.  Did I have an awesome time? Yep.  Did I have opportunity? You bet.  Did I see other hunters? You bet.  Did my opportunities get screwed up by other hunters, wind or errors by me?  Yes, yes and yes.  Do I get a do over?  Nope.  Name goes back in the hat and maybe I draw I with one point or have to wait another 20 years.  There is no guarantee of anything.

I will admit that the stupid point multiplier technically makes it tougher every year for the new hunters or the guys that drew the year before to draw again but in reality the odds of drawing with max points or one point aren't very good for the premium hunts.

I highly doubt there is anyone putting in for a peaches ridges cow elk tag that has max points and still can't draw.  How many people come on here and say "man I put in for whitetail doe for the 10th year in a row and still can't get drawn."?  The multiplier probably helps on these hunts because there are less people putting in for them and more tags given out.

Jackelope drew a goat tag with 9 points.  And there are a ton of guys with max points just shaking their heads.  It happens.
:yeah:
Spoken like a true realist. I have managed to save up 13 antler less elk points, and i'll tell you why. I have a 12 year old son that will be hunting his first elk season this coming November, and what better way to get him hooked on elk hunting than to hopefully draw him a cow tag, and get him some of that instant success. If it happens great, if not there is always next year, i guess he will just half to shoot a bull.


Sounds like a good plan! I drew antlerless last season with 12 points for the hardest draw unit in the state. Was a s$*%¥ show but I made it happen on day 4. My 6 year old was pretty stoked
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Matth on March 19, 2019, 09:02:06 AM
Well I am going to be done with the draw in this state.  I drew two tags two years ago and last year both of my kids drew two tags each.  The system is flawed, I didn't draw anything last year.

I am planning to win the powerball jackpot this week.  I have been playing the same numbers since the drawing came to Washington.  Basically I have put in my time to the drawing and there is no possible way I can not win it this week.  Heck I have drawn more elusive tags in Washington than winning jackpot numbers.

Technically with the number of tickets I have purchased I should have won this past weekend but obviously my math was wrong on calculating the true odds of winning.  They are certainly in my favor this week.

 :chuckle:

This cracks me up, but the funnier part of this entire statement is, i believe there is a lot of these kinds of conversations happening.
I totally agree.  The draw odds for really good tags in this state are slim to none.  I believe most have better odds of being in a car crash then drawing one of the great tags.

If you just want to draw a permit in this state I am thinking most can do it every 5 years if they put in for the right combination of unit, animal, sex and method of harvest.

Drawing a special permit is a bonus and even with that bonus there is no guarantee of taking an animal.

I had the colockum archery bull tag two years ago.  I had an awesome hunt and ate the tag.  Did I have an awesome time? Yep.  Did I have opportunity? You bet.  Did I see other hunters? You bet.  Did my opportunities get screwed up by other hunters, wind or errors by me?  Yes, yes and yes.  Do I get a do over?  Nope.  Name goes back in the hat and maybe I draw I with one point or have to wait another 20 years.  There is no guarantee of anything.

I will admit that the stupid point multiplier technically makes it tougher every year for the new hunters or the guys that drew the year before to draw again but in reality the odds of drawing with max points or one point aren't very good for the premium hunts.

I highly doubt there is anyone putting in for a peaches ridges cow elk tag that has max points and still can't draw.  How many people come on here and say "man I put in for whitetail doe for the 10th year in a row and still can't get drawn."?  The multiplier probably helps on these hunts because there are less people putting in for them and more tags given out.

Jackelope drew a goat tag with 9 points.  And there are a ton of guys with max points just shaking their heads.  It happens.
:yeah:
Spoken like a true realist. I have managed to save up 13 antler less elk points, and i'll tell you why. I have a 12 year old son that will be hunting his first elk season this coming November, and what better way to get him hooked on elk hunting than to hopefully draw him a cow tag, and get him some of that instant success. If it happens great, if not there is always next year, i guess he will just half to shoot a bull.


Sounds like a good plan! I drew antlerless last season with 12 points for the hardest draw unit in the state. Was a s$*%¥ show but I made it happen on day 4. My 6 year old was pretty stoked

I wish i could just gift him my points, we will be putting in for one of the local ones around here. I just don't like the idea of putting in together, and taking a tag away from someone that wants it.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: HoofsandWings on March 19, 2019, 11:40:23 AM
Knowing the odds works best when you apply for the 4 best odds, regardless of the location.
Just so nobody applies the same way, include a favorite permit location and randomize the other 3.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: WSU on March 19, 2019, 12:04:50 PM
I have a bunch of buck tag points.  I put in for points every year and should have over ten by the time my two sons are hunting.  Then we'll put in for the palouse hunt and go stack up the whitetails.  Best use of the points I could think of!
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: HoofsandWings on March 19, 2019, 02:55:09 PM
I have a bunch of buck tag points.  I put in for points every year and should have over ten by the time my two sons are hunting.  Then we'll put in for the palouse hunt and go stack up the whitetails.  Best use of the points I could think of!

As soon as they are eligible for points start them submitting each year. Maybe as a group. If so, you should include yourself.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: WSU on March 19, 2019, 03:01:20 PM
I will but they have to be licensed to do it for deer.  I put them in for moose and things that they can put in for already.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: andrew_in_idaho on March 19, 2019, 04:43:35 PM
I will but they have to be licensed to do it for deer.  I put them in for moose and things that they can put in for already.
Can’t do that anymore


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: JWEBB on March 19, 2019, 08:03:28 PM
Well I am going to be done with the draw in this state.  I drew two tags two years ago and last year both of my kids drew two tags each.  The system is flawed, I didn't draw anything last year.

I am planning to win the powerball jackpot this week.  I have been playing the same numbers since the drawing came to Washington.  Basically I have put in my time to the drawing and there is no possible way I can not win it this week.  Heck I have drawn more elusive tags in Washington than winning jackpot numbers.

Technically with the number of tickets I have purchased I should have won this past weekend but obviously my math was wrong on calculating the true odds of winning.  They are certainly in my favor this week.

 :chuckle:

This cracks me up, but the funnier part of this entire statement is, i believe there is a lot of these kinds of conversations happening.
I totally agree.  The draw odds for really good tags in this state are slim to none.  I believe most have better odds of being in a car crash then drawing one of the great tags.

If you just want to draw a permit in this state I am thinking most can do it every 5 years if they put in for the right combination of unit, animal, sex and method of harvest.

Drawing a special permit is a bonus and even with that bonus there is no guarantee of taking an animal.

I had the colockum archery bull tag two years ago.  I had an awesome hunt and ate the tag.  Did I have an awesome time? Yep.  Did I have opportunity? You bet.  Did I see other hunters? You bet.  Did my opportunities get screwed up by other hunters, wind or errors by me?  Yes, yes and yes.  Do I get a do over?  Nope.  Name goes back in the hat and maybe I draw I with one point or have to wait another 20 years.  There is no guarantee of anything.

I will admit that the stupid point multiplier technically makes it tougher every year for the new hunters or the guys that drew the year before to draw again but in reality the odds of drawing with max points or one point aren't very good for the premium hunts.

I highly doubt there is anyone putting in for a peaches ridges cow elk tag that has max points and still can't draw.  How many people come on here and say "man I put in for whitetail doe for the 10th year in a row and still can't get drawn."?  The multiplier probably helps on these hunts because there are less people putting in for them and more tags given out.

Jackelope drew a goat tag with 9 points.  And there are a ton of guys with max points just shaking their heads.  It happens.
:yeah:
Spoken like a true realist. I have managed to save up 13 antler less elk points, and i'll tell you why. I have a 12 year old son that will be hunting his first elk season this coming November, and what better way to get him hooked on elk hunting than to hopefully draw him a cow tag, and get him some of that instant success. If it happens great, if not there is always next year, i guess he will just half to shoot a bull.


Sounds like a good plan! I drew antlerless last season with 12 points for the hardest draw unit in the state. Was a s$*%¥ show but I made it happen on day 4. My 6 year old was pretty stoked

I wish i could just gift him my points, we will be putting in for one of the local ones around here. I just don't like the idea of putting in together, and taking a tag away from someone that wants it.

Yeah that would be nice. I wish wdfw would allow you to transfer points to immediate family
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: bobcat on March 19, 2019, 08:07:33 PM
Quote
Yeah that would be nice. I wish wdfw would allow you to transfer points to immediate family

Terrible, terrible idea. Then those points would never go away. Would make things worse, not better. No worries though, it would never happen.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: JWEBB on March 19, 2019, 08:15:16 PM
Quote
Yeah that would be nice. I wish wdfw would allow you to transfer points to immediate family

Terrible, terrible idea. Then those points would never go away. Would make things worse, not better. No worries though, it would never happen.


What do you mean the points would never go away? And how would it make things worse? And yeah I know it will never happen
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: grundy53 on March 19, 2019, 08:18:49 PM
Quote
Yeah that would be nice. I wish wdfw would allow you to transfer points to immediate family

Terrible, terrible idea. Then those points would never go away. Would make things worse, not better. No worries though, it would never happen.


What do you mean the points would never go away? And how would it make things worse? And yeah I know it will never happen
Instead of the points dropping out of the draw when someone quits hunting or passes away which would help overall draw odds. The points would get added to someone else's application which would create even higher point totals and decrease odds for everyone else.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: JWEBB on March 19, 2019, 08:22:49 PM
Quote
Yeah that would be nice. I wish wdfw would allow you to transfer points to immediate family

Terrible, terrible idea. Then those points would never go away. Would make things worse, not better. No worries though, it would never happen.


What do you mean the points would never go away? And how would it make things worse? And yeah I know it will never happen
Instead of the points dropping out of the draw when someone quits hunting or passes away which would help overall draw odds. The points would get added to someone else's application which would create even higher point totals and decrease odds for everyone else.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


I want bobcat to respond but ok. You guys are taking what I said to literally. I was referring to an able bodied father giving his son his points for a chance at an animal. This state is so far gone, opportunities for youngsters are slim.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: grundy53 on March 19, 2019, 08:30:31 PM
Quote
Yeah that would be nice. I wish wdfw would allow you to transfer points to immediate family

Terrible, terrible idea. Then those points would never go away. Would make things worse, not better. No worries though, it would never happen.


What do you mean the points would never go away? And how would it make things worse? And yeah I know it will never happen
Instead of the points dropping out of the draw when someone quits hunting or passes away which would help overall draw odds. The points would get added to someone else's application which would create even higher point totals and decrease odds for everyone else.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


I want bobcat to respond but ok. You guys are taking what I said to literally. I was referring to an able bodied father giving his son his points for a chance at an animal. This state is so far gone, opportunities for youngsters are slim.
Sorry

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: X-Force on March 19, 2019, 08:33:38 PM
Webb genius idea. My wife, mother, both sisters, brother who doesn’t hunt and my kids could all transfer points to me 7 extra points every year... I might actually draw a “quality” tag
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: JWEBB on March 19, 2019, 08:35:46 PM
Quote
Yeah that would be nice. I wish wdfw would allow you to transfer points to immediate family

Terrible, terrible idea. Then those points would never go away. Would make things worse, not better. No worries though, it would never happen.


What do you mean the points would never go away? And how would it make things worse? And yeah I know it will never happen
Instead of the points dropping out of the draw when someone quits hunting or passes away which would help overall draw odds. The points would get added to someone else's application which would create even higher point totals and decrease odds for everyone else.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


I want bobcat to respond but ok. You guys are taking what I said to literally. I was referring to an able bodied father giving his son his points for a chance at an animal. This state is so far gone, opportunities for youngsters are slim.
Sorry

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

No it’s my bad. I should have been more clear. I just figured it was obvious
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: bobcat on March 19, 2019, 08:46:18 PM
Quote
Yeah that would be nice. I wish wdfw would allow you to transfer points to immediate family

Terrible, terrible idea. Then those points would never go away. Would make things worse, not better. No worries though, it would never happen.


What do you mean the points would never go away? And how would it make things worse? And yeah I know it will never happen
Instead of the points dropping out of the draw when someone quits hunting or passes away which would help overall draw odds. The points would get added to someone else's application which would create even higher point totals and decrease odds for everyone else.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


I want bobcat to respond but ok. You guys are taking what I said to literally. I was referring to an able bodied father giving his son his points for a chance at an animal. This state is so far gone, opportunities for youngsters are slim.

Grundy answered the question exactly as I would have. I don't agree with transferring points to anyone. However along the same lines that you're thinking of, I think it would be okay if a parent had the option to let a son or daughter (under 16 years old or whatever the definition is for "youth" in this state) shoot an animal using the parent's special permit that they drew. I think there is a state that allows this, can't remember which one. (maybe Oregon?)

Also I don't agree that opportunities for kids are "slim." Tons of special opportunities for kids that weren't options when I was a kid. My daughter was 12 last year and drew a youth antlerless elk permit and got her first elk, and then later got a 3 point buck mule deer during the general season.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: JWEBB on March 19, 2019, 08:51:26 PM
Quote
Yeah that would be nice. I wish wdfw would allow you to transfer points to immediate family

Terrible, terrible idea. Then those points would never go away. Would make things worse, not better. No worries though, it would never happen.


What do you mean the points would never go away? And how would it make things worse? And yeah I know it will never happen
Instead of the points dropping out of the draw when someone quits hunting or passes away which would help overall draw odds. The points would get added to someone else's application which would create even higher point totals and decrease odds for everyone else.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


I want bobcat to respond but ok. You guys are taking what I said to literally. I was referring to an able bodied father giving his son his points for a chance at an animal. This state is so far gone, opportunities for youngsters are slim.

Grundy answered the question exactly as I would have. I don't agree with transferring points to anyone. However along the same lines that you're thinking of, I think it would be okay if a parent had the option to let a son or daughter (under 16 years old or whatever the definition is for "youth" in this state) shoot an animal using the parent's special permit that they drew. I think there is a state that allows this, can't remember which one. (maybe Oregon?)

Also I don't agree that opportunities for kids are "slim." Tons of special opportunities for kids that weren't options when I was a kid. My daughter was 12 last year and drew a youth antlerless elk permit and got her first elk, and then later got a 3 point buck mule deer during the general season.

Yeah thats exactly my thoughts. As for the opportunities I’m referring to the devastation of the wolves. There won’t be any good hunting in 10 years when my children are of age unless something is done about it.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Matth on March 20, 2019, 08:58:11 AM
Quote
Yeah that would be nice. I wish wdfw would allow you to transfer points to immediate family

Terrible, terrible idea. Then those points would never go away. Would make things worse, not better. No worries though, it would never happen.


What do you mean the points would never go away? And how would it make things worse? And yeah I know it will never happen
Instead of the points dropping out of the draw when someone quits hunting or passes away which would help overall draw odds. The points would get added to someone else's application which would create even higher point totals and decrease odds for everyone else.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


I want bobcat to respond but ok. You guys are taking what I said to literally. I was referring to an able bodied father giving his son his points for a chance at an animal. This state is so far gone, opportunities for youngsters are slim.

This is what i was talking about as well. An adult mother, or father gifting there points to there youth child, But i agree it will probably not ever happen. Now on the other side of that coin, what will likely happen is that my son, and i will put in together to combine points, draw 2 antlerless permits, and one will go to waste, taking an opportunity away from someone that would love a chance to harvest a cow (possibly a youth hunter)
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: 7mmfan on March 20, 2019, 09:10:03 AM
Quote
Yeah that would be nice. I wish wdfw would allow you to transfer points to immediate family

Terrible, terrible idea. Then those points would never go away. Would make things worse, not better. No worries though, it would never happen.


What do you mean the points would never go away? And how would it make things worse? And yeah I know it will never happen
Instead of the points dropping out of the draw when someone quits hunting or passes away which would help overall draw odds. The points would get added to someone else's application which would create even higher point totals and decrease odds for everyone else.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


I want bobcat to respond but ok. You guys are taking what I said to literally. I was referring to an able bodied father giving his son his points for a chance at an animal. This state is so far gone, opportunities for youngsters are slim.

This is what i was talking about as well. An adult mother, or father gifting there points to there youth child, But i agree it will probably not ever happen. Now on the other side of that coin, what will likely happen is that my son, and i will put in together to combine points, draw 2 antlerless permits, and one will go to waste, taking an opportunity away from someone that would love a chance to harvest a cow (possibly a youth hunter)

Why would one go to waste? Why couldn't both of you kill a cow?
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Matth on March 20, 2019, 11:32:25 AM
Quote
Yeah that would be nice. I wish wdfw would allow you to transfer points to immediate family

Terrible, terrible idea. Then those points would never go away. Would make things worse, not better. No worries though, it would never happen.


What do you mean the points would never go away? And how would it make things worse? And yeah I know it will never happen
Instead of the points dropping out of the draw when someone quits hunting or passes away which would help overall draw odds. The points would get added to someone else's application which would create even higher point totals and decrease odds for everyone else.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


I want bobcat to respond but ok. You guys are taking what I said to literally. I was referring to an able bodied father giving his son his points for a chance at an animal. This state is so far gone, opportunities for youngsters are slim.

This is what i was talking about as well. An adult mother, or father gifting there points to there youth child, But i agree it will probably not ever happen. Now on the other side of that coin, what will likely happen is that my son, and i will put in together to combine points, draw 2 antlerless permits, and one will go to waste, taking an opportunity away from someone that would love a chance to harvest a cow (possibly a youth hunter)

Why would one go to waste? Why couldn't both of you kill a cow?

We absolutely could, i just wont
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: grundy53 on March 20, 2019, 12:47:57 PM
Quote
Yeah that would be nice. I wish wdfw would allow you to transfer points to immediate family

Terrible, terrible idea. Then those points would never go away. Would make things worse, not better. No worries though, it would never happen.


What do you mean the points would never go away? And how would it make things worse? And yeah I know it will never happen
Instead of the points dropping out of the draw when someone quits hunting or passes away which would help overall draw odds. The points would get added to someone else's application which would create even higher point totals and decrease odds for everyone else.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


I want bobcat to respond but ok. You guys are taking what I said to literally. I was referring to an able bodied father giving his son his points for a chance at an animal. This state is so far gone, opportunities for youngsters are slim.

This is what i was talking about as well. An adult mother, or father gifting there points to there youth child, But i agree it will probably not ever happen. Now on the other side of that coin, what will likely happen is that my son, and i will put in together to combine points, draw 2 antlerless permits, and one will go to waste, taking an opportunity away from someone that would love a chance to harvest a cow (possibly a youth hunter)
At least you will save a cow.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: wheels on March 20, 2019, 01:03:47 PM
little behhind on the post so is it worth tyhe cost if im only currently doing Washington 
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Karl Blanchard on March 20, 2019, 01:10:39 PM
little behhind on the post so is it worth tyhe cost if im only currently doing Washington
if I only hunted washington I wouldnt pay $20 let alone $150 for gohunt and I'm a huge gohunt user :twocents:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Stein on March 20, 2019, 01:17:10 PM
Right now, GoHunt has no information for WA.  They are supposed to be publishing odds this year before the draw, but I would be real surprised if there was much info other than bad news.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: elkrack on March 20, 2019, 01:28:32 PM
 :yeah:
I highly doubt we are going to find out anything surprising about our draw system. Just ask Trophyhunt  :chuckle:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Karl Blanchard on March 20, 2019, 01:30:57 PM
All odds are low so apply for the tags you want.  If you draw then cool, if you dont then your tags are still over the counter so GoHunt......
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Rainier10 on March 20, 2019, 01:35:47 PM
All odds are low so apply for the tags you want.  If you draw then cool, if you dont then your tags are still over the counter so GoHunt......
Geezus Karl, you could have said "spoiler alert" or something in advance of just spilling the beans about the odds being low.  Way to ruin for those that didn't know and were waiting on the big gohunt unveil of their view of the odds.  :chuckle:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: grundy53 on March 20, 2019, 01:38:34 PM
little behhind on the post so is it worth tyhe cost if im only currently doing Washington
if I only hunted washington I wouldnt pay $20 let alone $150 for gohunt and I'm a huge gohunt user :twocents:
Exactly. I am a big Gohunt fan. Use it all the time. If I only hunted Washington I wouldn't waste my money on it.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Karl Blanchard on March 20, 2019, 02:01:54 PM
All odds are low so apply for the tags you want.  If you draw then cool, if you dont then your tags are still over the counter so GoHunt......
Geezus Karl, you could have said "spoiler alert" or something in advance of just spilling the beans about the odds being low.  Way to ruin for those that didn't know and were waiting on the big gohunt unveil of their view of the odds.  :chuckle:
  :sry: :peep:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Rainier10 on March 20, 2019, 02:24:46 PM
All odds are low so apply for the tags you want.  If you draw then cool, if you dont then your tags are still over the counter so GoHunt......
Geezus Karl, you could have said "spoiler alert" or something in advance of just spilling the beans about the odds being low.  Way to ruin for those that didn't know and were waiting on the big gohunt unveil of their view of the odds.  :chuckle:
  :sry: :peep:
:chuckle:
Secrets out everybody, odds of drawing a quality tag in Washington suck.
 :chuckle:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Karl Blanchard on March 20, 2019, 02:26:29 PM
It's TRUE! I havent drawn a quality elk tag in like 10 months😂😂😂
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Rainier10 on March 20, 2019, 02:58:08 PM
It's been two years for me but both of my kids drew multiple deer tags last year.  Them drawing is way better than me.  I can wait a little longer than two years if they keep drawing.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Bob33 on March 20, 2019, 03:02:51 PM
Unidentified anonymous sources have leaked the identities of the two GoHunt individuals who will be releasing Washington’s draw odds.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: BULLBLASTER on March 20, 2019, 03:15:15 PM
It's TRUE! I havent drawn a quality elk tag in like 10 months😂😂😂
Show off!  :yike:
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: blackveltbowhunter on March 20, 2019, 03:21:04 PM
 :chuckle:

I am sorry if my "quit" post scared anyone away. It may have sounded harsh I didn't mean it that way.  :sry:

   The reality is hunting is difficult. And many factors can make it more so depending on the individual circumstances. I am one of those who had essentially non hunting family, but supportive parents even though I dropped out of sports completely in my teens because I was as they said "obsessed". No podcasts, no elk hunt 101, no BROs, no huntwa. No GPS, no onyx, no GOHUNT. So I spent every single minute I could in the woods, read or ordered every book, and picked the brains of every Hunter I knew and also was blessed to end up with a close friend who's dad helped in showing me the ropes. Here the rub..... This was they hey day of BT deer in the early and mid nineties and timber co access was a breeze, yet my odds of seeing deer we're less than now. And I see a lot more legal ones now. Even though there were a lot more of them, simply because I didn't know what I was looking for.

Since being labeled "successful" by some, I have enjoyed the opportunities to help other new or less experienced hunters and what I have noticed is that it's far less about "my good spot" or being a good teacher, Hunter ,caller whatever. And way more about the individuals level of commitment when held accountable. Instead of weekends they commit a full week, instead of the week, they commit the season, instead of an extra shift at work they attend that 3d shoot, or tell the wife the grass will get cut later, scouting trip this weekend.  Often I have nothing to do with success, simply motivation to spend more time chasing it themselves. And sometimes that fades, and they realize even "my spot" doesn't mean it's a go out for half morning and kill one. And they hunt with a more realistic expectation. Or quit.

Personally I think aside from no point states like Idaho, Nm, etc.... WA has a draw system that should be MORE appealing to new hunters entering the system rather than navigate the multiple preference point states in the west. Draw odds are not good, but they are not good for everyone.  So new hunters in WA thank your lucky stars you have any chance and apply away. You have slightly lower chance than the guy with max points for any of the "premier" draws, and anything else you will be accruing points toward a better opportunity hunt. If money is the issue, stay out of the OILs and Quality categories where odds are very slim and go for the better opportunity permits.

As for points transfer, I see a lot of pitfalls and abuse opportunity. But agree with Bobcat a permit transfer I could probably get behind.

Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Matth on March 20, 2019, 04:17:27 PM
:chuckle:

I am sorry if my "quit" post scared anyone away. It may have sounded harsh I didn't mean it that way.  :sry:

   The reality is hunting is difficult. And many factors can make it more so depending on the individual circumstances. I am one of those who had essentially non hunting family, but supportive parents even though I dropped out of sports completely in my teens because I was as they said "obsessed". No podcasts, no elk hunt 101, no BROs, no huntwa. No GPS, no onyx, no GOHUNT. So I spent every single minute I could in the woods, read or ordered every book, and picked the brains of every Hunter I knew and also was blessed to end up with a close friend who's dad helped in showing me the ropes. Here the rub..... This was they hey day of BT deer in the early and mid nineties and timber co access was a breeze, yet my odds of seeing deer we're less than now. And I see a lot more legal ones now. Even though there were a lot more of them, simply because I didn't know what I was looking for.

Since being labeled "successful" by some, I have enjoyed the opportunities to help other new or less experienced hunters and what I have noticed is that it's far less about "my good spot" or being a good teacher, Hunter ,caller whatever. And way more about the individuals level of commitment when held accountable. Instead of weekends they commit a full week, instead of the week, they commit the season, instead of an extra shift at work they attend that 3d shoot, or tell the wife the grass will get cut later, scouting trip this weekend.  Often I have nothing to do with success, simply motivation to spend more time chasing it themselves. And sometimes that fades, and they realize even "my spot" doesn't mean it's a go out for half morning and kill one. And they hunt with a more realistic expectation. Or quit.

Personally I think aside from no point states like Idaho, Nm, etc.... WA has a draw system that should be MORE appealing to new hunters entering the system rather than navigate the multiple preference point states in the west. Draw odds are not good, but they are not good for everyone.  So new hunters in WA thank your lucky stars you have any chance and apply away. You have slightly lower chance than the guy with max points for any of the "premier" draws, and anything else you will be accruing points toward a better opportunity hunt. If money is the issue, stay out of the OILs and Quality categories where odds are very slim and go for the better opportunity permits.

As for points transfer, I see a lot of pitfalls and abuse opportunity. But agree with Bobcat a permit transfer I could probably get behind.

I agree with you 100%, and after thinking about it a bit more, you guys are correct a permit transfer is more reasonable. I could draw the permit, and let my son fill it, without all the extra crap.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Stein on March 20, 2019, 04:39:00 PM
All odds are low so apply for the tags you want.  If you draw then cool, if you dont then your tags are still over the counter so GoHunt......
Geezus Karl, you could have said "spoiler alert" or something in advance of just spilling the beans about the odds being low.  Way to ruin for those that didn't know and were waiting on the big gohunt unveil of their view of the odds.  :chuckle:

But, I have a bunch of points and they square them so I am planning on drawing Dayton rifle this year.  The odds are only low if you don't have many points.
Title: Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
Post by: Falcon on March 22, 2019, 06:06:04 PM
:chuckle:

I am sorry if my "quit" post scared anyone away. It may have sounded harsh I didn't mean it that way.  :sry:

   The reality is hunting is difficult. And many factors can make it more so depending on the individual circumstances. I am one of those who had essentially non hunting family, but supportive parents even though I dropped out of sports completely in my teens because I was as they said "obsessed". No podcasts, no elk hunt 101, no BROs, no huntwa. No GPS, no onyx, no GOHUNT. So I spent every single minute I could in the woods, read or ordered every book, and picked the brains of every Hunter I knew and also was blessed to end up with a close friend who's dad helped in showing me the ropes. Here the rub..... This was they hey day of BT deer in the early and mid nineties and timber co access was a breeze, yet my odds of seeing deer we're less than now. And I see a lot more legal ones now. Even though there were a lot more of them, simply because I didn't know what I was looking for.

Since being labeled "successful" by some, I have enjoyed the opportunities to help other new or less experienced hunters and what I have noticed is that it's far less about "my good spot" or being a good teacher, Hunter ,caller whatever. And way more about the individuals level of commitment when held accountable. Instead of weekends they commit a full week, instead of the week, they commit the season, instead of an extra shift at work they attend that 3d shoot, or tell the wife the grass will get cut later, scouting trip this weekend.  Often I have nothing to do with success, simply motivation to spend more time chasing it themselves. And sometimes that fades, and they realize even "my spot" doesn't mean it's a go out for half morning and kill one. And they hunt with a more realistic expectation. Or quit.

Personally I think aside from no point states like Idaho, Nm, etc.... WA has a draw system that should be MORE appealing to new hunters entering the system rather than navigate the multiple preference point states in the west. Draw odds are not good, but they are not good for everyone.  So new hunters in WA thank your lucky stars you have any chance and apply away. You have slightly lower chance than the guy with max points for any of the "premier" draws, and anything else you will be accruing points toward a better opportunity hunt. If money is the issue, stay out of the OILs and Quality categories where odds are very slim and go for the better opportunity permits.

As for points transfer, I see a lot of pitfalls and abuse opportunity. But agree with Bobcat a permit transfer I could probably get behind.

 :yeah:
Great post right there :tup:
SimplePortal 2.3.7 © 2008-2025, SimplePortal