GoHunt to publish WA odds

[BULLBLASTER]

I cannot stress this enough.  If you feel that you are "invested" into the washington draw system you need to slap yourself in the back of the head.  You paid for a chance to draw a tag, nothing more.  If you buy a losing scratch ticket do you get all worked up about it?  It's basically the same thing.  Odds on even the less desirable tags are extremely low so apply for the tags you want and dont stress about odds. For the price of a dinner date with the old lady you bought the chance to draw a hunt/hunts of a lifetime.  I dont much like our system but it's the one we are stuck with for now so embrace it for what it is, which is a small bit of added opportunity

[chester]

Does anyone else feel bad for the poor guy who got assigned the task of figuring out the draw odds of this state? I remember hearing they were working on it a few years ago and I’m surprised they got it done before this years draw cycle. Curious if there will be any accuracy with the way we are set up.

[blackveltbowhunter]

I cannot stress this enough.  If you feel that you are "invested" into the washington draw system you need to slap yourself in the back of the head.  You paid for a chance to draw a tag, nothing more.  If you buy a losing scratch ticket do you get all worked up about it?  It's basically the same thing.  Odds on even the less desirable tags are extremely low so apply for the tags you want and dont stress about odds. For the price of a dinner date with the old lady you bought the chance to draw a hunt/hunts of a lifetime.  I dont much like our system but it's the one we are stuck with for now so embrace it for what it is, which is a small bit of added opportunity

  Great way to summarize. I have drawn 2 quality permits in 15 years of applying neither were for the "big" units. Both permits I hunted hard, knew the ground and located animals I considered "worthy". On one I was able to connect on one of those animals, and the other I was not but walked away satisfied with the result. Both permits cumulative cost over time was less than an application in most any other state.
 
  I am likely the minority as I actually think our draw system is less screwed than many other states, at least from a NR applicant perspective. Could it be better, of course. But IMO it has less built in flaws than other point systems. Everyone has a chance. Those with loyalty get a slightly better chance every year but no guarantee.  Washington pre category is possibly the best of both worlds. Our odds have more to due with generally poor hunting, than a garbage permit system.   

[Stein]

Does anyone else feel bad for the poor guy who got assigned the task of figuring out the draw odds of this state? I remember hearing they were working on it a few years ago and I’m surprised they got it done before this years draw cycle. Curious if there will be any accuracy with the way we are set up.

Yeah, it will be as accurate as you can get.  They have a mathematician on staff who develops computer programs for difficult states like WA who have randomness and second/third chances.  They basically program a computer to run millions of simulated draws that eventually creep into the actual odds.

Just think if you didn't know the odds of a coin flip.  If you simply flipped a coin 1,000 times and recorded the outcome, the odds would eventually get very, very close to 50.0% if you flip it enough.

[idahohuntr]

If you feel that you are "invested" into the washington draw system you need to slap yourself in the back of the head.  You paid for a chance to draw a tag, nothing more.  If you buy a losing scratch ticket do you get all worked up about it?  It's basically the same thing. 

I've made this exact point numerous times...and it's definitely one of my criticisms against point systems...it gives folks this false sense of entitlement to a limited public resource. 

If I ran any State draw, you would have to read and accept this statement before submitting any application: Life is not fair and the world owes you nothing.   

[Stein]

If I was king of the world, I would probably have a point system because it keeps people applying and healthy budgets are good for managing wildlife.  I have skipped states that are purely random before, but I always scrape the money to at least get a point in places where I am collecting them.

Bonus points are the way to go in my mind, much easier to convince yourself you have a chance over preference point states where you are perpetually X years away from drawing and never getting closer.

What I don't agree with is the way WDFW publishes their "average points to draw" statistics.  That is plain deceptive in my mind for the casual hunter or those that aren't into math or statistics which is most.  If they wanted to be a bit more hones, publish the number of names in the hat for each tag last year and you could easily square your points and see where you sit.

At the end of the day, it's a lottery ticket.

[BULLBLASTER]

If I was king of the world, I would probably have a point system because it keeps people applying and healthy budgets are good for managing wildlife.  I have skipped states that are purely random before, but I always scrape the money to at least get a point in places where I am collecting them.

Bonus points are the way to go in my mind, much easier to convince yourself you have a chance over preference point states where you are perpetually X years away from drawing and never getting closer.

What I don't agree with is the way WDFW publishes their "average points to draw" statistics.  That is plain deceptive in my mind for the casual hunter or those that aren't into math or statistics which is most.  If they wanted to be a bit more hones, publish the number of names in the hat for each tag last year and you could easily square your points and see where you sit.

At the end of the day, it's a lottery ticket.

At this point I am mostly the opposite. I am less likely to start applying in a point state than I am a random draw state. I’d rather scrape up the funds to have a chance to hunt than scrape up the funds to buy a point. 

[Karl Blanchard]

If I was king of the world, I would probably have a point system because it keeps people applying and healthy budgets are good for managing wildlife.  I have skipped states that are purely random before, but I always scrape the money to at least get a point in places where I am collecting them.

Bonus points are the way to go in my mind, much easier to convince yourself you have a chance over preference point states where you are perpetually X years away from drawing and never getting closer.

What I don't agree with is the way WDFW publishes their "average points to draw" statistics.  That is plain deceptive in my mind for the casual hunter or those that aren't into math or statistics which is most.  If they wanted to be a bit more hones, publish the number of names in the hat for each tag last year and you could easily square your points and see where you sit.

At the end of the day, it's a lottery ticket.

At this point I am mostly the opposite. I am less likely to start applying in a point state than I am a random draw state. I’d rather scrape up the funds to have a chance to hunt than scrape up the funds to buy a point. 

this is the issue that lots of states ie CO, WY, AZ, UT are trying to combat. The people they have hooked stay in it but there's no new blood coming into the system.  Even a guy like me who applies for EVERYTHING/EVERYWHERE has prioritized my application strategy and approach. 

[Stein]

I don't know, I think there are plenty of people coming in still.  I just pulled AZ elk and the NRs with 1 point went up almost 2,000 from 2017 to 2018.  Assuming that a portion of the 1 pointers pulled a tag or moved to 2 points (minus those that drew and started over), there are more than 2,000 new applicants in one year alone.

For the hunter, the completely random draw is certainly the best solution today and unless something drastically changes in the number of hunters or tags.

[Karl Blanchard]

That's because they have started to implement incentives such as Utah general deer catagory, WY, AZ, etc random draw tag allocations, AZ loyalty points, etc.  Almost every state in the west is continually tweaking their system to bump new recruitment. The reality of unsustainable point systems has reared its ugly head and agencies are trying to combat it. 

[SteelheadTed]

I don't think many non-residents apply, it would be interesting to see the numbers.

True statement. They have to be buy a nonresident elk tag just to apply.  Not many folks doing that!


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Bingo, this is the reason Washington isn't on most non-resident's radar.  Washington has positioned itself as a hard place to hunt (and in Western WA it is) and ask a lot of money of non-residents to hunt here.  The value proposition isn't there compared to a number of other western states. 

It's that simple.  As a non-resident, if you can hunt Colorado for less money, have as good or better of an experience why they heck would you come to Western Washington?

What I don't understand is residents complaining about Washington.  Sure, all things being equal there are a number of western states I'd rather hunt but that has as much to do with change of scenery and getting away from home as it does opportunity at animals. 

[bearpaw]

I can see non-resident youth applying, especially for OIL permits. Their cost is less than adult residents for both the application, and the tag if drawn.

I’ve always wondered that. So non res youth pay youth prices?

Yes.

the same in Idaho too, youth have good opportunities in many states 

[Karl Blanchard]

I can see non-resident youth applying, especially for OIL permits. Their cost is less than adult residents for both the application, and the tag if drawn.

I’ve always wondered that. So non res youth pay youth prices?

Yes.

the same in Idaho too, youth have good opportunities in many states 

new Mexico is the one that blows me away.  Some killer youth tags to be had!

[MerriamMagician]

It seems that more and more people are agreeing now that point systems are unsustainable. With most people as well as state agencies now aware of this, what measures, processes, and procedures does everyone foresee happening in the future to address the issue? Will game departments abandon point systems and come up with new systems? Will they simply be tweaked and reworked further? There is a lot of uncertainty about what the future is going to hold in regards to this issue. The whole situation makes me uneasy. Change is likely coming, its just a matter of when and will it be effective or not?

[Stein]

As long as the money comes in, I only see minor tweaks.  Look at the preference point creep, people still buy and will never draw in many, many places.  It takes a fair amount of research to understand that.  Most people see that they drew with 13 point last year and think they just need 5 more years till their turn.


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