GoHunt to publish WA odds

[X-Force]

Not hard to figure out the odds suck.
Also unless it was a special draw such as rinellas.  You never see on you tube a washington hunt. Only videos are from the people who are residents who draw. Never see the the shows come here.

Good.
Why would we EVER want a show to film here? Why would that EVER be a good thing?

Not true. TV types come take advantage of OTC mule deer, “Roosevelt” elk and “coastal” blacktail... there are multiple treads on here about these hunts.

[Falcon]

I cannot stress this enough.  If you feel that you are "invested" into the washington draw system you need to slap yourself in the back of the head.  You paid for a chance to draw a tag, nothing more.  If you buy a losing scratch ticket do you get all worked up about it?  It's basically the same thing.  Odds on even the less desirable tags are extremely low so apply for the tags you want and dont stress about odds. For the price of a dinner date with the old lady you bought the chance to draw a hunt/hunts of a lifetime.  I dont much like our system but it's the one we are stuck with for now so embrace it for what it is, which is a small bit of added opportunity

 

I agree with these points.   I will argue with anyone that says points don’t matter.  I also agree that point creep is happening.   I have max points for sheep but so do about 300 other guys.   That’s far better odds than the guy with 1 point and substantially better than most.   Having said that I would have to be extremely lucky to draw in my lifetime but that won’t deter me from applying.   

[X-Force]

I cannot stress this enough.  If you feel that you are "invested" into the washington draw system you need to slap yourself in the back of the head.  You paid for a chance to draw a tag, nothing more.  If you buy a losing scratch ticket do you get all worked up about it?  It's basically the same thing.  Odds on even the less desirable tags are extremely low so apply for the tags you want and dont stress about odds. For the price of a dinner date with the old lady you bought the chance to draw a hunt/hunts of a lifetime.  I dont much like our system but it's the one we are stuck with for now so embrace it for what it is, which is a small bit of added opportunity

 

I agree with these points.   I will argue with anyone that says points don’t matter.  I also agree that point creep is happening.   I have max points for sheep but so do about 300 other guys.   That’s far better odds than the guy with 1 point and substantially better than most.   Having said that I would have to be extremely lucky to draw in my lifetime but that won’t deter me from applying.   

Honest question. Is 0.3% far better than 0.0012%.

Both have no statistical odds of drawing.

[Stein]

I wouldn't even say that WA has point creep for OIL, the odds are so low and no preference point portion of the draw.  I think it will really open some eyes when the true odds come out.  With the garbage data WDFW is putting out, I would think that GoHunt is having a tough time with it.  I'm not sure how they can even work with incorrect data.

[andrew_in_idaho]

It seems that more and more people are agreeing now that point systems are unsustainable. With most people as well as state agencies now aware of this, what measures, processes, and procedures does everyone foresee happening in the future to address the issue? Will game departments abandon point systems and come up with new systems? Will they simply be tweaked and reworked further? There is a lot of uncertainty about what the future is going to hold in regards to this issue. The whole situation makes me uneasy. Change is likely coming, its just a matter of when and will it be effective or not?

I see a few changes on the horizon - all of which will be implemented slowly and phased in as the outcry to major or sudden changes would not be politically acceptable.

My predictions:

1. States in a true preference system will began allocating more and more tags to random draws to keep newcomers interested. States with extremely low odds bonus point systems will also likely do the same. @huntnphool has described a process that over many years would wean states off points...but I'm not sure there is an appetite for that in the foreseeable future.

2. Costs to play will continue to rise at a faster pace than we've seen previously...continuing increases to point and app fees.   

3. For some states, particularly those with horrible draw odds, we will begin seeing tweaks to improve odds as more folks become savvy to just how bad the odds are.  Things like limiting choices, increasing costs to apply, fronting tag fees etc. will become more common.

4. With existing data and information so widely available on how points systems have "worked"...Idaho, New Mexico, and Wyoming (for resident deer/elk) will never adopt a point system of any kind.

I wouldn’t be so sure that Idaho, New Mexico and Wyoming(residents) won’t implement point systems soon. It seems like we have to fight one off every 3-4 years here in Idaho, I’m guessing we are about due for our next fight and every year more idiots come out of the woodwork after the draws to complain that they don’t draw on tags with 2% draw odds so obviously the random draw is broken. Wyoming just had another fight about resident preference points this winter. I don’t know much about New Mexico, maybe they are smarter than most.

The unfortunate fact is that despite the failures of preference/bonus point systems the majority of the populace still thinks they work.


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[Stein]

When you look at NR tags, I believe every state is basically after the same goal - bring in revenue for wildlife management.  I don't see any state doing it to keep the heritage alive, sharing their state with the rest of the world or anything like that.  They need money, legislatures are generally cutting funding over time and resident hunters and fishermen flip out if they have to pick up the entire tab, or even relatively modest fee increases.

Thus, basic economics come into play when departments look at their NR program (except in WA where politics plays #1, 2, and 3 in the top three).  If you read the documents that departments put out prior to NR changes (fee increases or system changes), it basically boils down to a) what do other states do, b) where are we relative to them and c) what is the revenue change we expect.

In my mind, NM would change their NR program if they thought it would be overall more beneficial to the department and thus the wildlife in the state.  Montana will eventually raise prices because they are getting more applicants than they have general tags.  Refundable licenses are going away, application fees are increasing and on down the line.

I also think states like NM and ID may split how they handle NR and resident tags.  They could have one side preference points and the other side random draws.

Finally, any state with really hard to draw tags overall (like WA) will have tons of pressure to move to a points system as the general population thinks it will help them and shift the tags to the guys who are older and away from the young whipper snappers that haven't earned the right to the tags like they did.  States where you can draw good tags every couple years and great tags every ten years don't have the same pressure as everyone is moderately happy.

[blackveltbowhunter]

Then quit

[emac]

As a new hunter I continue to find these topics fascinating. We're told over and over that hunter numbers are dwindling and yet we have these systems in place where 300+ people have max points for a lottery draw and even out of *that* sample size, people aren't sure they'll ever draw. What hope does that leave anyone else?

I have to ask myself: If we have fewer and fewer hunters and yet these systems are still so messed up, how did anyone imagine these systems were ever going to work with previously higher numbers of hunters?

This entire thing blows my mind, and it really makes me wonder how anyone plans to grow this sport when I'll be telling my son: "If you start applying now, you may be able to hunt a sheep by the time you're 75."
I can't think of another hobby or sport that's anywhere near as messed up as this one is, when it comes to this sort of stuff. Hell, I could pay a (large) sum of cash to fly my son to see the superbowl live, but I can't get him to go on a quality elk hunt? How is that a thing?

You can pay a large sum of cash every year to take your son on a quality elk hunt

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[MtnMuley]

Then quit

 

You can take your son on a quality elk hunt across the border in Idaho or Oregon if you chose.  Hell, I know several guys who have amazing quality elk hunts over the counter here in WA on the westside and in the NE.  I can also tell you that they put in countless miles on foot over the years and have things dialed in. 

As for telling your son about hunting sheep, I'd highly recommend you stressing that it is an extreme privilege to be able to harvest any wild bighorn.  Most all hunters will never get the chance to do.  Apply knowing there's an extreme long shot at ever drawing a tag, or don't even start applying in the first place.   For me, a day trip to just "hang out" with the sheep is pretty rewarding in itself.

[Stein]

I think the point he is trying to make is that in points systems with creep, the system is set up such that if you weren't in the system on this date, you will never draw a tag.  It isn't that you didn't "put in your time", it's a simple fact that the tags are reserved for a certain group of hunters that were applying on or before a date.  If you are younger or newer to the hunting world, tough luck.

That isn't a way to encourage growth in the numbers of hunters.  Sure, few will actually draw the tag, but if you have a community that says, "Hey it's awesome to go on a sheep hunt, but you will never do it because those of us that are older pushed for a system that keeps all the tags for us", you aren't going to benefit the community.

Look at the situation in WA, a bunch of people were in support of taking a bunch of youth moose tags so we could leave as many regular and senior tags available as possible.

Look at the senior tags themselves, those are tags taken away from both youth and non-senior adults.

Just think of what would happen if we did this with salmon fishing.  We have a limited quota and it is divided evenly - anyone that wants to buy a license and fish can do it.  What crazy stuff would happen if we reserved 10% of our quota for people over 65 and another 20% for people that have bought licenses for at least 10 years?

I haven't heard an argument I can get behind that says that for the benefit of the game and hunting community, there should be anything other than a complete random draw for limited tags.

[Katmai Guy]

   but being part of the "older" half of the WA hunting population with max points for OILs, we were sold a system back in the day that was not explained totally or I missed it.  If you got rid of the final single number per category used to draw and used total number of applications per person in a category as the final draw, would this not increase the odds for the guys with more points? Even though minutely?

[andrew_in_idaho]

  but being part of the "older" half of the WA hunting population with max points for OILs, we were sold a system back in the day that was not explained totally or I missed it.  If you got rid of the final single number per category used to draw and used total number of applications per person in a category as the final draw, would this not increase the odds for the guys with more points? Even though minutely?

I think I see what you are getting at here, and no it wouldn’t change the odds, if you have 10 bonus points then you have 100 random numbers, essentially when they assign the random numbers they are drawing those 100 random numbers from a bucket and your lowest one is just the 1st one drawn, it would still have to be drawn before others lowest or 1st ticket pulled from the bucket.


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[Matth]

Then quit

 

You can take your son on a quality elk hunt across the border in Idaho or Oregon if you chose.  Hell, I know several guys who have amazing quality elk hunts over the counter here in WA on the westside and in the NE.  I can also tell you that they put in countless miles on foot over the years and have things dialed in. 

As for telling your son about hunting sheep, I'd highly recommend you stressing that it is an extreme privilege to be able to harvest any wild bighorn.  Most all hunters will never get the chance to do.  Apply knowing there's an extreme long shot at ever drawing a tag, or don't even start applying in the first place.   For me, a day trip to just "hang out" with the sheep is pretty rewarding in itself.

I agree with all of that, and I definitely picked one of the more extreme examples. I would love to talk to these folks that have amazing quality OTC elk hunts in western WA! It's so damn crowded over here, I can't imagine going somewhere that didn't feel like a shopping mall.
I love putting in long hard days - it's one of my favorite parts of this sport.

I love activities where i feel like I am building towards success. When I first heard about the points system I thought: "Cool! I can work towards that, and it might take a while, but I'll get there!" and then I started hearing from people who had been in it since day one, and my enthusiasm waned.

I have amazing quality hunts on the west side of Washington, and Oregon just about every year. Can there be a lot of people at times? sure, but it is not that hard to get away from people if that is truly the goal. I think one of the most important things i could stress to some one new to hunting in western Washington, and Oregon is to manage personal expectations, it takes a lot of time to get good at this stuff.

[Matth]

Then quit

 

You can take your son on a quality elk hunt across the border in Idaho or Oregon if you chose.  Hell, I know several guys who have amazing quality elk hunts over the counter here in WA on the westside and in the NE.  I can also tell you that they put in countless miles on foot over the years and have things dialed in. 

As for telling your son about hunting sheep, I'd highly recommend you stressing that it is an extreme privilege to be able to harvest any wild bighorn.  Most all hunters will never get the chance to do.  Apply knowing there's an extreme long shot at ever drawing a tag, or don't even start applying in the first place.   For me, a day trip to just "hang out" with the sheep is pretty rewarding in itself.

I agree with all of that, and I definitely picked one of the more extreme examples. I would love to talk to these folks that have amazing quality OTC elk hunts in western WA! It's so damn crowded over here, I can't imagine going somewhere that didn't feel like a shopping mall.
I love putting in long hard days - it's one of my favorite parts of this sport.

I love activities where i feel like I am building towards success. When I first heard about the points system I thought: "Cool! I can work towards that, and it might take a while, but I'll get there!" and then I started hearing from people who had been in it since day one, and my enthusiasm waned.

I have amazing quality hunts on the west side of Washington, and Oregon just about every year. Can there be a lot of people at times? sure, but it is not that hard to get away from people if that is truly the goal. I think one of the most important things i could stress to some one new to hunting in western Washington, and Oregon is to manage personal expectations, it takes a lot of time to get good at this stuff.

It's compounded by the fact that as a new hunter you have no spots to inherit from friends or family. Every inch of ground I've hunted has been scouted by me, on foot. My mom tells me about the spots my grandpa used to hunt elk but they're all lottery only now. New hunters are left to just wing it.

Good thing I love scouting

I agree with you, and i also agree that we have a broken system as it relates to points, and draw systems. What i would also like to point out as a matter of my own opinion is there is a lot of people in the hunting community that feel as though they have some claim to these OIL tags, and other sought after tags, and that is just not realistic as far as i am concerned. I view them as some form of bonus that i may some day get to take part in.


Very few places that got handed down to most of us over the years by our elders are worth a *censored* any longer, and that leaves most of us scouting a lot. I am the only member of my family to even hunt in Oregon, and it took several years to figure some stuff out. It's a process for sure, surely not a sport for instant gratification.

[grundy53]

Then quit

 

You can take your son on a quality elk hunt across the border in Idaho or Oregon if you chose.  Hell, I know several guys who have amazing quality elk hunts over the counter here in WA on the westside and in the NE.  I can also tell you that they put in countless miles on foot over the years and have things dialed in. 

As for telling your son about hunting sheep, I'd highly recommend you stressing that it is an extreme privilege to be able to harvest any wild bighorn.  Most all hunters will never get the chance to do.  Apply knowing there's an extreme long shot at ever drawing a tag, or don't even start applying in the first place.   For me, a day trip to just "hang out" with the sheep is pretty rewarding in itself.

I agree with all of that, and I definitely picked one of the more extreme examples. I would love to talk to these folks that have amazing quality OTC elk hunts in western WA! It's so damn crowded over here, I can't imagine going somewhere that didn't feel like a shopping mall.
I love putting in long hard days - it's one of my favorite parts of this sport.

I love activities where i feel like I am building towards success. When I first heard about the points system I thought: "Cool! I can work towards that, and it might take a while, but I'll get there!" and then I started hearing from people who had been in it since day one, and my enthusiasm waned.

I have amazing quality hunts on the west side of Washington, and Oregon just about every year. Can there be a lot of people at times? sure, but it is not that hard to get away from people if that is truly the goal. I think one of the most important things i could stress to some one new to hunting in western Washington, and Oregon is to manage personal expectations, it takes a lot of time to get good at this stuff.

It's compounded by the fact that as a new hunter you have no spots to inherit from friends or family. Every inch of ground I've hunted has been scouted by me, on foot. My mom tells me about the spots my grandpa used to hunt elk but they're all lottery only now. New hunters are left to just wing it.

Good thing I love scouting

I do pretty good hunting elk in western Washington. Sure I've inherited some spots  as you say but I spend most of my off season looking for new spots because one of the big things with hunting elk in western Washington is spots change all the time. Your honey hole gets logged or the timber patch around it. So the elk change their behavior. Or a old dog hair patch grows up and gets huntable. Or someone just beats you to your spot. Its always evolving.

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