moose 10 pts or less?

[wheels]

can it be done just curios on odds thanks

[bowhunterforever]

Yes it can be done just gotta get lucky

[huntnnw]

Points mean absolutely nothing when your dealing with so few tags and way to many applicants

[andrew_in_idaho]

Odds are somewhere around 1 in 1000 likely but yes it can be done


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[ctwiggs1]

You could put in every year of your life and not get drawn.

You could also get drawn your first year. 

Good luck!

[benhuntin]

Happens every year.


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[teanawayslayer]

Points don't matter in this state. Had a buddy draw any moose with 5.

[Bob33]

If you apply for four "any moose" hunt choices, I compute your odds to be around 1 in 200 of drawing one of them with ten points.

[Duckgtr]

I had to

[3boys]

Happens every year.


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Yes it does! I drew with 8

[BeerBugler]

Building special permit points gives applicants a better chance in the random drawings. Each special permit category has a separate drawing.

The special permit drawing system is similar to pulling tickets out of a barrel. Building points gives an applicant more tickets. The system also squares points. That means a person with one point ends up with one entry (1x1=1) and a person with 10 points ends up with 100 entries (10x10=100).

The system randomly pulls out all these tickets in order. At the end, each application will keep and use the lowest number it drew. Lower numbers are better in this case, as an application assigned the number one earns the first overall pick. With more points, an application has a better chance of drawing a better pick.

You'll have a hundred tickets in the barrel.....but it's a big ass barrel!

[Bob33]

I ran a more precise estimate of the odds of drawing an “any moose” permit. My assumption was that the applicant applied for four hunt choices: (1) 49 Degrees North A Early, (2) 49 Degrees North A Late, (3) Selkirk, (4) Kettle Range. (The order does not matter in overall draw odds.)

I computed the estimated odds of drawing one of the four choices at various applicant point levels as shown here:

-   1 point: 1 in 13,270
-   5 points: 1 in 530
-   10 points: 1 in 135
-   15 points: 1 in 60
-   20 points: 1 in 35
-   24 points: 1 in 25

It's very easy to compute the odds of drawing if one doesn't apply.

[Magnum_Willys]

I ran a more precise estimate of the odds of drawing an “any moose” permit. My assumption was that the applicant applied for four hunt choices: (1) 49 Degrees North A Early, (2) 49 Degrees North A Late, (3) Selkirk, (4) Kettle Range. (The order does not matter in overall draw odds.)

I computed the estimated odds of drawing one of the four choices at various applicant point levels as shown here:

-   1 point: 1 in 13,270
-   5 points: 1 in 530
-   10 points: 1 in 135
-   15 points: 1 in 60
-   20 points: 1 in 35
-   24 points: 1 in 25

It's very easy to compute the odds of drawing if one doesn't apply.

So with 15 points I shouldn't worry about camp reservations just yet ?  Odds look just slightly worse than drawing Wenaha - arghhhhh

[sagerat]

Yeah and then think about your odds of actually finding the bull you want... Those big coyotes up there haven't made it any easier.

[Ridgerunner]

It's cheap to dream, apply and hope to get lucky. 


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