I went with westside and have 11 points on a tag that had average points of 8 last year. First time I've truly had high hopes for any application
Just a FYI, the average points category is for applicants in that hunt choice, not average points to draw that tag.
Actually I don't think that's right.
I think it's the average points of the people who drew the previous year...
Yes, that's correct. It's the average of those who drew that permit. But it's pretty much a meaningless number. Especially when there are very few permits for a particular hunt.
Just as an example look at the Mudflow quality permit. 5 permits and it shows a total of 725 applications in 2016 and an average of 7 points of those who drew the permit.
But you look at the numbers and see that there were 65 applications with 7 points. None of them drew. 44 applications with 8 points- none drew. 25 applications with 9 points- none drew. 26 applications with 10 points- 1 drew. 66 applications that had from 11 to 20 points and only one of those drew, one with 15 points.
All I'm saying is definitely don't look at the average points and think that just because you have that many, or more, that you have a good chance of drawing.
Yep. But, with something the youth elk tag I put my daughter in for, last year there were 72 applicants for 10 tags, and average to draw was 2.7 points. IIRC 16 applicants drew a different tag. Since my daughter will have 4 points in the draw this year, I'd say that gives her decent odds. Far from guaranteed of course, but not bad. Last year someone with 6 points failed to draw that tag. Can't be sure if that person drew another tag though. One of the 2 with 5 points failed to draw it, as did 3 out the 4 with 4 points. Again, can't know if any of them drew a different tag. But, that's still better odds than the 1 out of 35 with a single point that actually drew, or the 4 out of 25 with 2 points that succeeded in drawing.
Ultimately, while I'd love it if she draws that tag, if she doesn't I won't be completely heartbroken if she doesn't get it. She just 13, and physically I think it might be a good thing if it takes an extra year for her to draw.
