Understanding Points - Stupid Question

[psr81]

Hello All - Trying to understand how to decipher WDFW special hunt results.

In the full data set, what are the two columns for?
 https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2019-09/2019%20Quality%20Elk%20drawing%20results%20by%20hunt%20number.pdf

And then, how come the data doesn’t tie out?  For example, for Upper Smith Creek WA Bull, it says average points was 4 but if you look at the table in the PDF as well as the complete results it says 14.5. https://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/special-hunts/results/elk#

What am I missing?  Thanks!

 

[Gobble Doc]

Have a couple beers and it will all become clearer.


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[Bob33]

Hello All - Trying to understand how to decipher WDFW special hunt results.

In the full data set, what are the two columns for?
 https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2019-09/2019%20Quality%20Elk%20drawing%20results%20by%20hunt%20number.pdf

And then, how come the data doesn’t tie out?  For example, for Upper Smith Creek WA Bull, it says average points was 4 but if you look at the table in the PDF as well as the complete results it says 14.5. https://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/special-hunts/results/elk#

What am I missing?  Thanks!

 

Which two columns are you asking about?

[psr81]

In the first link (pdf), applicants and selected applicants repeats itself.  Often the numbers are identical, sometimes they differ.  Thanks

[Mr Mykiss]

When selected applicants is more than applicants selected it means that one or more group applications were selected.
Do you understand that it's a bonus point squared system, not a preference point system?
Do you have any idea what the individual odds are for being selected?
You said that you wanted to understand points...that's why I'm asking

[psr81]

When selected applicants is more than applicants selected it means that one or more group applications were selected.
Do you understand that it's a bonus point squared system, not a preference point system?
Do you have any idea what the individual odds are for being selected?
You said that you wanted to understand points...that's why I'm asking

Thanks.  I was curious about why the Avg Points is the regulation pamphlet doesnt match the data.  For a special hunt, it will list avg points of say 4, but the data says something much larger.  Smith Creek Western Archery Bull Elk is an example.   And then, in the data (pdf), why there are two columns with the same data that often repeats itself but sometimes doesn’t.  I generally have a handle on everything else.

[Mr Mykiss]

I'm guessing that the PDF you're looking at shows 2019 points used by permit category and the "average points" shown in the regulation booklet is from 2018.

[Stein]

It’s like the lottery, someone has to win but it won’t be you.

Ignore Average Points, that is a gimmick to get you to buy.  Just like the lottery where average tickets for the winner is near 1. 

The more difficult the tag is to draw (or the fewer the tags) the less credibility to average points.

Many people see that number, look at their points and get disappointed for a lifetime.


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[Mr Mykiss]

Unless all you do is bitch about the actual statistics of drawing elk tags...then you draw all the time

[Bob33]

There is data for applicants and applications. They are often the same but not necessarily. One party application could have eight applicants on it.

Average points in the pamphlet are misleading at best. Assume there is one permit available with 100 applications. 99 of the applicants have 10 points, and the hundredth applicant has one point. If he draws the average in the pamphlet will list average points as one. If there were two permits, and the applicant with one point drew and another applicant with ten points drew the average points listed would be five. That number has virtually no bearing on draw odds.

[Chesapeake]

"Average points of those applicants that were drawn"

Doesn't mean the average person will draw when they have said number of points. Just means that by pure chance the average points of those applicants that were drawn happens to be said number.
Pretty useless statistic if you ask me.

The issue with the Washington draw system is that if they listed the actual chance of drawing they'd likely lose many customers.

For the Upper Smith creek WF tag on average about 800 people apply each year for 2 tags. You have way way way less than 1% chance of drawing. Odds are that if you put in every year for your 50 year hunting life, you'd never draw it. If the same 800 guys applied until they drew and no others entered it would only take 400 years for them to all get tags.

What you need to look at in the book is "# of tags" and "# of applicants". Calc that out and look for 10% or better odds of drawing. Maybe even 20% or better odds. Anything else is more or less a "Once in a lifetime" tag.

Per the books I have Upper Smith creek rifle bull:

2011: 9
2012: 8
2013:10
2014:11
2017:8
2018:12
2019:8

So, on average about 9.5 points will get you that tag, eventually. 

[psr81]

Thanks.   This confirms what I was thinking that the Avg Pts published in the reg book is useless and to rely on the underlying data. 

[Chesapeake]

But don't actually calc out what I suggested. You'll just find that the best odds Quality tags are less than about 6% odds, Bull tags are worse at less than 5% odds, and Cow tags are 10% or so for the best odds choices(20% if you include highly restricted access). Many of the draw choices in any category are less than 1% draw odds. Many if not all of the better odds choices are restricted by access in one way or another.

Washington draw odds are astronomical and only getting worse.







 

[boneaddict]

Points are the devil.

[WapitiChaser]

And yet we all keep paying the governor and applying.  LOL.  I hunt eastern,   So if I pay the fee for ALL the possibles and don’t draw,  we are hunting an OTC spike tag.  I only saw a half dozen hanging in the 346 this week and the camp numbers seemed WAY down this year.   

I would still go every year for the time with friends and family but it is frustrating to watch big bulls and cows stroll right in front of you.   Heck,  in 20 years we will be so overrun with elk, the state will have to pay YOU to go hunt them. Oh wait!?!  That’s why we have the wolves....

In the meantime, keep funding the state and eating tag soup!   One day your number is bound to come up!