No 2023 Chelan Goat????

[hunterednate]

Another era.

Another era largely responsible for our crappy mountain goat numbers today.  You can't manage mountain goats the same way you manage deer/elk/etc which was a mistake our state made for decades before trying to correct the issue.

Our issue today is that literally every single goat population in our state is decreasing and I don't think WDFW has any idea why.  My personal opinion - climate change (specifically warmer weather pushing them to spend more time in timber) is leading to higher than normal predation.  Of course higher than normal predation is drastically exacerbated by extremely high predator numbers (cougars, wolves, coyotes all having negative impact.)  It seems to me there may be some disease issue at play.  I've been seeing very low kid recruitment in recent years (as in last 3-4 years relative to the 2x decades before that I spent watching goats.)

Unfortunately goats receive a low priority in research funding with our state so I honestly don't think WDFW has any real idea how bad (or not) things actually are other than low helicopter counts in recent years (which has been negatively impacted by extremely warm summers pushing goats out of traditional visible habitat.)  Also, the relocation from Olympic National Park to the Cascades was all planned 4-5 years ago before the established herds (think Goat Rocks, Baker Wilderness, Boulder River, Naches, etc.) started really taking a downward trend.  As such those 300+ goats were relocated to smaller, more isolated herds in the cascades in hopes of those herds starting to grow.  In hindsight, it should have been a goal to bolster the established herds and help promote stronger genetic diversity in those herds. 

(One other side note, recent research done by WWU has shown extremely low genetic diversity in almost all goat herds in our state.  Goats are not crossing major highways (I90 and I2 being the big contributors, but even smaller highways like Hwy 20 being a contributor as well.)  Additionally goats from individual herds are showing relatively little cross breeding with other herds (Baker/Boulder River herds, Goat Rocks/Naches herds/etc.  Even Canadian goats like Cathedral Park north of Pasayten and Pasayten goats are not travelling back and forth.)  Historic data suggests young males relatively frequently moved from one herd to another helping to bolster genetic diversity and that does not seem to be happening now.  I don't know how this plays into declining goat numbers or what specifically has changed recently as opposed to the past in this regard but it's certainly something worth noting as genetic diversity has been shown to be integral to long term herd health in mountain goats.  See Fest-Bianchet research for more info on that.  It's pretty fascinating stuff.)

And that just brings up the entire issue with the ONP relocation.  Eliminating that herd is terrible for our goats in WA state.  The ONP herd was the only herd doing well in our entire state and relocating half of that herd was a great idea.  But maintaining the remaining half as a "nursery herd" or sorts to help augment the other goats in our state would have been a far better solution than complete eradication.   

I think there's one thing everyone can agree on which is the desire to see healthy herds here in our state.  Hopefully the downward trends of our established herds can serve as a wake up call to WDFW bios to get a better grasp on what's going on so we can continue to promote healthy and robust goat populations throughout the suitable terrain in WA state.

100% agree with this. The outstanding book A Beast the Color of Winter by Douglas Chadwick opened my eyes on mountain goat conservation, big time. Must read for anyone who cares about goats and goat management.

[GOcougsHunter]

Great write up!  If we could get someone in management to find and successfully communicate the corollary between human development (highways bisecting travel corridors) & Predator control suppression (picking off the transient goats in lower elevations (sub prime escapement) I think we could get some traction on the need to bring back expanded predator control.  The idea that human presence and bumbling management of the entire ecosystem wouldn't affect every niche is naïve.

[shanevg]

Some interesting info in video below regarding state of our WA mountain goat herds.  Video was recorded last fall.  The prof may come off as very anti-hunting but IMO he's just acknowledging the fact that our poor management practices in the 60's-80-'s on goats has had a huge negative impact on getting to where we are today with our goat herds. 

https://cenv.wwu.edu/speaker-series/mountain-goat-conservation-and-restoration-washington-state

It was also mentioned that A Beast the Color of Winter by Douglas Chadwick is a great book about goats.  (Also The Wolverine Way and True Grizz by Chadwick are great reads.) 

If you really want to dive deep in the intricacies of mountain goat conservation, then I'd recommend reading Mountain Goats: Ecology, Behavior, and Conservation of an Alpine Ungulate by Marco Festa-Bianchet.  It's a dense read but really dives into the complications of the low fecundity of mountain goats (relative to other ungulate species) and why mountain goats are so sensitive to overharvest and have such major issues with low genetic diversity.  I don't know for a fact, but I can surmise that a lot (if not all) of WA's approach to mountain goat management over the last decade plus has been based off the research from that book.   

[jackelope]

I emailed the WDFW biologist about this when the changes occured. Not to give him a hard time or anything...just to try and learn more about why they made the changes in the Goat Rocks. It was hard for me to believe that since 2017, the herd there has changed enough to lose 3 permits. He told me the biggest contributing factor to the goat herds was the climate. Severe winters followed by drought summers lead to a lot of dead goats.
I'm far from a goat guy but figured why not. Once you hunt these animals, they get in your blood. For some people like Shane, they're in your blood long before you hunt them.
This is the email I sent:

Mr Moore-

Hope you don't mind me dropping you a line. I think you're the right guy to talk to but I'm not positive of that. If you're not the guy, I apologize. Had some questions on the drastic reduction in the mountain goat permit allocation, specifically for the Goat Rocks West unit and the complete elimination of the Chelan unit hunts. Can you share some insight as to why the number of permits dropped so significantly? I guess I always thought that we had strong goat populations here. I was fortunate to draw a Goat Rocks permit in 2017 when it was still all one unit. Saw a bunch of goats both scouting and hunting. Probably saw 150 goats in one day in Cispus Basin during that summer while scouting. It's hard to believe we've dropped so significantly in such a short time.

Thank you so much for your time.

Josh


===============

His response:

Hi Josh,

 

Our mountain goat populations have declined significantly recently and we are reducing permits is those areas.   A good place to find information on this is our status and trend report: https://wdfw.wa.gov/publications/02367 . We’ve done some preliminary investigations to evaluate survival of adult from 2000 – 2020 and we can definitely say it has not be as good during the later portions of the 2010’s and early 2020 as compared to 2000 - 2017. You likely hunted the goat rocks when the population was at its peak, and we are about half of that population now.  We are hoping to conduct more monitoring in the Goat Rocks and Lake Chelan during the next few years.

 

Respectfully,

 =================

Wow...crazy to think that the goat herd in the Goat Rocks has declined that much in 6 years. Any ideas where the goats are going? I assume predators are playing a big part in their decline. The only other tracks I saw on the ridge I killed my billy on were lion tracks.  Are we having any respiratory disease issue with our goats?  I know it's not as prolific as with the sheep, but I've heard they're affected to a degree as well.

Thanks for your time.

Josh

==================

Hi Josh,

 

I would not assume predators. We are seeing declines in most of our populations and our preliminary research is correlating drought summers followed by more severe winters as a potential problem.

 

Thanks,

 ================

Is it accurate that a capture operation will happen in the Goat Rocks during what would normally be hunting season? Is the timing of that because of cooler weather not stressing the animals out as much? What's the point of the capture operation?

Thanks again.

Josh

===============

Hi Josh,

 

Being a hunter myself I definitely understand your concerns on reduced opportunity and especially when successfully acquiring a once in a lifetime tag. I’m more than happy to discuss these issues on the phone. I often find a phone conversation as a better option by providing a more dynamic platform when discussing issues that have plenty of intricate details involved.  Anyhow, feel free to call since discussions with hunters are important and valued by the Department. The communication between the Department and our hunting population has been horrible in the past, I believe it is getting better, but overall direct one-on-one  conversations has always been the best method.

 

Respectfully,

 

Will

 

 

William Moore

Ungulate Specialist

Washington Dept. of Fish & Wildlife

1130 W University Way

Ellensburg, WA 98926

(509) 306-8969

=========================

I didn't have time to call him at the time, so I didn't. His info is all there if anyone does want to call him.

[Ridgerunner]

Will is a good biologist, I've known him for years.  What I don't understand if it is not predators why other states are not experiencing similar issues that WA is especially with how  conservative we have been with our harvest. 

[fishngamereaper]

It baffles me that the apparent decline has "apparently" been known for years yet they choose to mostly eradicate the largest population in the state with the ONP debacle. Instead of taking greater care to work in conjunction with NP officials and relocate every goat they could get there hands on. Even if it took a couple summers...

I'm also a firm believer that wdfw has poor math silks as well. Under counting herd's seems to be a common issue. I'm not a north cascades guy but IMO central Cascade goats appear in similar numbers throughout my travels as they did 20-30 year's ago.

[actionshooter]

It baffles me that the apparent decline has "apparently" been known for years yet they choose to mostly eradicate the largest population in the state with the ONP debacle. Instead of taking greater care to work in conjunction with NP officials and relocate every goat they could get there hands on. Even if it took a couple summers...

I'm also a firm believer that wdfw has poor math silks as well. Under counting herd's seems to be a common issue. I'm not a north cascades guy but IMO central Cascade goats appear in similar numbers throughout my travels as they did 20-30 year's ago.

From what I understand, the mortality rate of the goats that did get relocated was pretty high and after the initial capture... they got pretty smart and were hard to catch. I believe they did release over 300 into the cascades, but I'm not sure what the survival rate was.

[shanevg]

It baffles me that the apparent decline has "apparently" been known for years yet they choose to mostly eradicate the largest population in the state with the ONP debacle. Instead of taking greater care to work in conjunction with NP officials and relocate every goat they could get there hands on. Even if it took a couple summers...

I'm also a firm believer that wdfw has poor math silks as well. Under counting herd's seems to be a common issue. I'm not a north cascades guy but IMO central Cascade goats appear in similar numbers throughout my travels as they did 20-30 year's ago.

From what I understand, the mortality rate of the goats that did get relocated was pretty high and after the initial capture... they got pretty smart and were hard to catch. I believe they did release over 300 into the cascades, but I'm not sure what the survival rate was.

I heard survival rate was under 50%.  :'(

[grade-creek-rd]

The WDFW bio gave one of the most political answers I have ever heard, and I am stealing it for my day job! "feel free to call since discussions with hunters are important and valued by the Department. The communication between the Department and our hunting population has been horrible in the past, I believe it is getting better, but overall direct one-on-one  conversations has always been the best method."...that means, call me and I will tell you in person, over the phone, with no paper trail to bite me is the ass, but ya, we are reducing numbers of permits to slowly do away with hunting. He even contradicts himself saying how from 2010-2020 the goat population was dropping but then says in 2017 it was at its peak...uh, if its dropping then its past its peak.

I am not bashing on the bio...in fact, I applaud him for his answers and asks for a phone call instead of an email so it can't be put on a forum like this one and his bosses fire him. smart dude right there!

Grade

[Falcon]

The WDFW bio gave one of the most political answers I have ever heard, and I am stealing it for my day job! "feel free to call since discussions with hunters are important and valued by the Department. The communication between the Department and our hunting population has been horrible in the past, I believe it is getting better, but overall direct one-on-one  conversations has always been the best method."...that means, call me and I will tell you in person, over the phone, with no paper trail to bite me is the ass, but ya, we are reducing numbers of permits to slowly do away with hunting. He even contradicts himself saying how from 2010-2020 the goat population was dropping but then says in 2017 it was at its peak...uh, if its dropping then its past its peak.

I am not bashing on the bio...in fact, I applaud him for his answers and asks for a phone call instead of an email so it can't be put on a forum like this one and his bosses fire him. smart dude right there!

Grade

 but ya, we are reducing numbers of permits to slowly do away with hunting.

Based on our current commission, I don't doubt this for a second. I logged on and watched a couple of their live sessions and I am dumb founded how this commission is putting any value on keeping hunting a lawful act.  The sheep, moose and goat hunts will be the first to go, and the rest will be death by a 1000 cuts.  Sadly, I don't see a conservative or even moderate politician who will be able to run against Bob Ferguson for the Governor's race. You don't like Jay Inslee.........Wait until he is replaced by someone much worse

[actionshooter]

It baffles me that the apparent decline has "apparently" been known for years yet they choose to mostly eradicate the largest population in the state with the ONP debacle. Instead of taking greater care to work in conjunction with NP officials and relocate every goat they could get there hands on. Even if it took a couple summers...

I'm also a firm believer that wdfw has poor math silks as well. Under counting herd's seems to be a common issue. I'm not a north cascades guy but IMO central Cascade goats appear in similar numbers throughout my travels as they did 20-30 year's ago.

From what I understand, the mortality rate of the goats that did get relocated was pretty high and after the initial capture... they got pretty smart and were hard to catch. I believe they did release over 300 into the cascades, but I'm not sure what the survival rate was.

I heard survival rate was under 50%.  :'(

I heard even lower, but don't want to repeat the number because it wasn't 1st hand info...

[teanawayslayer]

The WDFW bio gave one of the most political answers I have ever heard, and I am stealing it for my day job! "feel free to call since discussions with hunters are important and valued by the Department. The communication between the Department and our hunting population has been horrible in the past, I believe it is getting better, but overall direct one-on-one  conversations has always been the best method."...that means, call me and I will tell you in person, over the phone, with no paper trail to bite me is the ass, but ya, we are reducing numbers of permits to slowly do away with hunting. He even contradicts himself saying how from 2010-2020 the goat population was dropping but then says in 2017 it was at its peak...uh, if its dropping then its past its peak.

I am not bashing on the bio...in fact, I applaud him for his answers and asks for a phone call instead of an email so it can't be put on a forum like this one and his bosses fire him. smart dude right there!

Grade

 but ya, we are reducing numbers of permits to slowly do away with hunting.

Based on our current commission, I don't doubt this for a second. I logged on and watched a couple of their live sessions and I am dumb founded how this commission is putting any value on keeping hunting a lawful act.  The sheep, moose and goat hunts will be the first to go, and the rest will be death by a 1000 cuts.  Sadly, I don't see a conservative or even moderate politician who will be able to run against Bob Ferguson for the Governor's race. You don't like Jay Inslee.........Wait until he is replaced by someone much worse

I didn’t think it could get any worse than inslee!