New permit system

[RancidCrabtree]

I'm new the site - thought I'd kick off my registration with a question that I've been struggling with.
If I recall correctly, the new permit system (kicked off in 2010) had 2 goals - increase revenue and improve drawing odds.  It seems pretty clear from what I've read, that the new system increases revenue (by virtue of creating multiple categories for each species that come with additional permit application fee).  However, it's not all clear that the drawing odds improved.  It seems like the odds improved for the Quality Deer and Quality Elk categories - but the drawing odds went down for Bull Elk Tags, Antlerless Elk, Antlerless deer etc.
If the fish and game department are genuine about their second stated goal (improve drawing odds) - what, if anything, are they doing to this end?    Stikes me that the state would need to reduce the number of "Hunt selections" for each category to potential achieve improved drawing odds.  Like only offering 2 Hunt Selections for each category (ie.  the method they used to improve the odds of the Quality hunts for deer and ELK).  Maybe they should move all the permit applications to 1 hunt selection to further improve odds.  Thoughts ?

R. Crabtree

[Bob33]

It is very clear: it increased revenue, and decreased draw odds across the board.

If you go back and read the 2010 news announcements about the proposed changes, the goal of improving draw odds was taken out part way through the process.  I kept a screen print of the original announcement showing that, but it's nowhere to be found now.

[Woodchuck]

Love your handle, I am a huge fan.

The dept may have stated that part of the goal was to increase draw odds but I don't see how it could. I do believe the primary goal was $$$ plain and simple.

[cmiller85]

Point systems ruin draw odds; so you can bet that anything the dept does to "Enhance" that system, will just make drawing odds worse.

I do like your idea about limiting special permit choices to 1 choice. This would help to calculate your actual chances of drawing a tag now that the regs finally give the average number of points per application. Though I doubt that it would increase actual draw odds since the regs do not specify whether the applications received for a hunt were 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th choice (which I'm guessing they include ALL apps). If so, your draw odds are better than what you can calculate, based on the regs, if you are a 1st choice app competing against 2nd, 3rd and 4th choice applications.

[GoldTip]

There is only two ways that the department could at this time increase drawing odds, both of which would limit opportunity.  I personally think they could increase drawing odds, increase hunter satisfaction and increase game herds as well, at least with elk and Mule deer.  But it would result in 50% decrease in general tags issued for those species each year, and many people wanna be able to hunt each year, even if they see 20 people a day.

[RancidCrabtree]

Fair points.  The long term revenue prospects, that depend on future special permit application fees, is pretty questionable.  Particularly questionable in a state with so many hunters, moderate game population, and a special permit model that is so over subscribed.   It's hard to image that future hunters will be motived to purchase special permit applications - knowing they will be competing against hunters with 20 points or more.  At 20 points, that's equivalent to 400 names in the hat.  Hard to figure why a future hunter would pay to get a single name in the hat - against these odds.  With the current permit model (and as stated above, it got worse in 2010) - there is just not enough draw turnover - 95% plus that applied last year, will be in next year's drawing.  Long term, the state will probably have no choice but to move to a permit model for the general season - one that doesn't enable hunting the same species every year. 

[bobcat]

That's exactly right. The only way to "fix" the permit system is to eliminate general seasons and move it all to the permit system. That way there will be enough turnover so that a person can expect to draw a permit every few years. But of course they probably don't want to do that and decrease the number of tags sold each year.

I do like your idea about limiting special permit choices to 1 choice. This would help to calculate your actual chances of drawing a tag now that the regs finally give the average number of points per application.

The "average points" they give us is not the average for all applicants- it is the average of the applicants who drew a tag. So yeah, pretty much a useless number. You can't calculate anything using that number.

[sled]

  Maybe if you are selected a year you should only be able to select a points option for the next 5 years.  then after that be eligable for a tag.

[winshooter88]

WDFW will resist going to a permit only system as long as they can because to do so would reduce the amount of revenue they get. So don't hold your breath on that idea. As for the newer hunters not putting in for permit hunts, someone with one point can still have a chance to draw even though others have 15-20 points. More points simply means more chances to be drawn, it doesn't mean that you will get drawn. Allot of people complain about the points system for just this reason, they have lots of points and still don't get drawn. WDFW isn't going to change any time soon, so we best get used to disappointment.

Dave

[boneaddict]

I think you have a pretty good handle on what they need to do for a quick bandaid, without losing revenue. (decrease amount of selections) This has been debated over and over on here.  It was obvious from the beginning what their real intentions were and for the most part none of us fell for it.  There is a monster thread on here somewhere that covered the topic when the switch happened. 

[del vandine]

How does the game dept. make it fair under this system a person can draw both cow an bull tags in the same year . Give them the first one drawn an throw out the second for some else to draw.

[RancidCrabtree]

Yes - the multi-permit single tag aspect of the new system stinks IMO.  I recall reading that the complication that drove this new aspect is the complexity of the audit process (which I assume is tied to doing some form auditing the drawing results to prevent folks on the inside, or wrote the software, from tweaking the results.  Rollback (removing a winner applicants because they drew a higher priority permit) certainly could add to the complexity of auditing - but if the software was written within an eye toward making the audit process simple, we wouldn't have to live with this quirk. 

R. Crabtree

[Alan K]

Fair points.  The long term revenue prospects, that depend on future special permit application fees, is pretty questionable.  Particularly questionable in a state with so many hunters, moderate game population, and a special permit model that is so over subscribed.   It's hard to image that future hunters will be motived to purchase special permit applications - knowing they will be competing against hunters with 20 points or more.  At 20 points, that's equivalent to 400 names in the hat.  Hard to figure why a future hunter would pay to get a single name in the hat - against these odds.  With the current permit model (and as stated above, it got worse in 2010) - there is just not enough draw turnover - 95% plus that applied last year, will be in next year's drawing.  Long term, the state will probably have no choice but to move to a permit model for the general season - one that doesn't enable hunting the same species every year.

If you think our system is rough for those who are/were late building points, check out Colorado's and other states that are max points.  All the prime hunts (of the equivalent to our Blue Mtns. hunts) just keep climbing in the points required to draw every year because there are 2500 guys putting in for 25 tags, and each and every one of them would draw before you did if you just started putting in. In that situation you may as well not even try seeing as it's guaranteed it would take 100 years to draw (assuming there aren't any new people with more points switching to or from the hunt).  At least with our system you've still got a chance, albeit a slim one. 

I sleep well at night knowing I have a better chance at drawing than someone with fewer points than me, while at the same time not planning on being drawn.  I understand that it's still random.  Seems a lot of guys with a pile of points don't understand that points aren't designed to assure you of drawing or even give you an great chance, they only increase your odds of it a bit. Their points are still diluted by the masses with far fewer points.

[huntnnw]

Yup..and u get all these people b*&^&* on here about out draw system... just think if you were born today in UT,CO or WY... whats it going to take to draw a tag in their lifetime? Say u start this year in UT for henrys rifle muley... and u are 30 yrs old good luck on drawing before u die. We have one of the fairest systems in the west along with NV oh and ID with no points being the best.

[Bigshooter]

If you are going to have a point system there is none more fair than Washington.

[SkookumHntr]

-Oregon has the best system!

[Lowedog]

Those that buy and apply for a special permit are still a minority in WA.  From what I can find there were a total of 65,421 total applicants for all special hunt permits for all species while there were  131,133 people who bought a deer tag.  With less than half of WA hunters purchasing special hunt applications I don't see us going to a permit only system just so those of us who do apply have better odds at drawing. 

Special hunts are just that.  Special.  There are very few of them and it is a gamble to buy your app and try for that special hunt.  If we up the odds at drawing that means more hunters in the field during that hunt which to me makes that hunt less special. 

For me if we want to increase odds for deer and elk special hunts we need to make it so if you draw a special hunt for deer or elk you can't draw for that species for 2 seasons.  You could still buy a points option but not draw.  That takes a lot of names out of the drawing.