The truth about our draw odds

[JimmyHoffa]

I agree it is a lotto, but your odds keeping getting worse each year.  Similar to Powerball when the pot is $10 million vs $300 million.

The odds for a lottery based on selecting fixed numbers (Powerball) will stay the same regardless of prize size.  To be the only winner, your odds will drop because more people have a chance to co-win and share the prize. 
The odds do go down for winning a fixed number of permits, similar to the raffles---more people, more competition.  Here, the prize can't be divided and winners are already guaranteed for the selection.

[AndyCAK]

As I stated above, the important thing to consider is your cumulative chances of drawing a tag, not your odds in any given year.  The cumulative odds are the combined chances that you would have drawn at some point up through the the current year.  Let's use the Colockum Quality Elk Rut tag (#2020 in 2011 or #2019 in 2010) as an example:

Points        Odds in 2010      Cumulative Odds
   18               0.76%                   4.83%
   17               0.68%                   4.11%
   16               0.60%                   3.45%
   15               0.53%                   2.87%
   14               0.46%                   2.35% 
   13               0.40%                   1.90%
   12               0.34%                   1.51%
   11               0.28%                   1.18%
   10               0.23%                   0.90%
    9                0.19%                   0.67%
    8                0.15%                   0.48%
    7                0.11%                   0.33%
    6                0.08%                   0.21%
    5                0.06%                   0.13%
    4                0.04%                   0.07%
    3                0.02%                   0.03%
    2                0.01%                   0.01%
    1                0.00%                   0.00%

* I'm too lazy to go back years and years to get the actual numbers so I'm going to assume that the 2010 figures are consistent from year to year - though we know the numbers are growing.  This actually makes the cumulative odds MUCH worse than in reality.  I also only used the 1st choice figures...

What does all this mean in reality?  Not much...  It's just to say that with 18 points you have had a 4.83% chance of drawing at some point for this tag. 

Personally, I'll take the 4.83% chance versus overhunting...  Though I do like the idea of limiting the number of categories one can enter and/or increasing the cost of the permit lottery.

PS  This is the most ridiculous post.  I'm in graduate school right now and recently took statistics.  And I thought it would never come in useful...

[HoofsandWings]

You can improve your odds substantially by adding 10 points for each poacher you report.
If you look at the points of the winner, sometimes you see numbers that are higher than the number of years we have had a point system.
Also, sometimes you are awarded points for mistakes made by WDFW. A case in point. A friend of mine put in for a disabled hunt permit and
somehow the department lost the app. He was awarded 5 points due to the screw up.

[dreamingbig]

I don't think the cumulative draw odds are represented correctly.  If you are unsuccessful you don't get those votes in the hat for next year.  You would need to add up the total number of applications for each year vs your total points over the years to get your cumulative draw odds.

[Little Dave]

I'm not sure what is meant by cumulative draw odds, but there's one kind of cute scenario that surprises some people, goes like this:

There are three doors and a prize is behind one.  You are asked to pick a door.  The host knowing where the prize is opens a door that you did not pick and does not have a prize behind it.  You are offered the chance to change your selection.  Should you?

What's strange is that a lot of people think that if they keep the door that they selected it is a 50/50 chance.  It is not.  Only if they switch do they get the 50/50 chance.  The one that they selected is still a one in three chance even though there are now just two choices.

Keeping that in mind, be careful with the cumulative calculation.

[AndyCAK]

Ahhh... The Monty Hall problem... If you switch doors your odds actually go up to 66%.  It's a very strange phenomenon in statistics. http://www.grand-illusions.com/simulator/montysim.htm

What I mean by cumulative odds is that chance that you will have drawn by the time you have that number of points.  Though your odds are still VERY small that you will draw in any given year, the more times you try the greater your chance of winning in the long run.  Though as Keynes said, "In the long run we're all dead!"

[huntnnw]

Thats why I hunt with primitive weapons and take the lesser quality tags with better odds.. I dont look at like some of u... U have no idea if the guy with 12 points last year got drawn or this year applied for another unit. If there is 4 tags and 80 applicants...I ll take those odds