WDFW permit summmaries out

[bullcanyon]

I enjoy seeing the average points for the unit I put in for was 5ish and I used 13 points and got nada.

[dscubame]

The more people that understand just how bad the odds will stop paying the high prices for the chance to draw thus increasing the chance for those who pay the $$$.  Here to hoping anyway....

Spread the word how bad the odds really are as the overwhelming majority do not know this.

This would be a good article for a outdoor writer or freelance writer to cover.

[ShaneTyTrey]

Since I am a math dork, I compiled a spreadsheet to test the theory of how much preference points really help.  Put in however many points you have and it will give you your draw odds and compared that to the draw odds with no preference points assuming the same amount of applicants.  For the purpose of this discussion I used an individual using 8 points, 4 points and only 1 point and found the following results:

8 points
Quality Deer  10.20%
Quality Elk     7.74%
Bull Elk          6.05%
Any Moose    .437%

4 points
Quality Deer  2.33%
Quality Elk     1.77%
Bull Elk          1.38%
Any Moose    .100%

1 point
Quality Deer  .179%
Quality Elk     .136%
Bull Elk          .106%
Any Moose    .008%

No Point Sytem
Quality Deer  4.72%
Quality Elk     4.00%
Bull Elk           3.13%
Any Moose    .427%

As you can see with something like Moose where you have a ton of applicants and very few tags available, the points don't really help, even at 8 points you have only 1/100% better odds than with no points, however, the other quality tags (NOT OIL Tags) your odds certainly go up with the addition of points.  I personally believe this is a fair system and at a minimum your odds increase each year on drawing the quality tags.  If anyone wants to see the spreadsheet and play with it, PM me and I will send it to you.

Jeff

[Bob33]

The basic problem with Washington's draw system is there are far more applicants than permits.  The 49 Degrees North moose permit had over 12,000 applicants for 20 permits in 2012.  With no points considered where everyone has an equal chance, odds are about 1 in 600.  An applicant with no bonus points has odds of about 1 in 850,000 as you point out.  The person with 19 points had odds of about 1 in 50, so points can improve odds but they are still very low.

I consistently read posts about hunters who are stunned they did not draw a quality permit with 10 points, 15 points, 18 points....you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.  Twenty permits for 12,000 applicants (each of whom on average has about 8 bonus points) means that 11,980 will not get drawn.

Actually, by my calculations an applicant with 19 points in the 2012 drawing had odds of about 1 in 110. Keep in mind this is after an almost 23% reduction in the number of applicants over 2011 (16,033 applicants). Likely due to the price increases.

Also, it is important to keep in mind that without the point system, there likely would not be as many applicants in the drawing as the idea of accumulating points is what drives a lot of people to apply. From my research of the years after the point system was implemented, the number of applicants for moose suddenly jumped and continued upward every year, often by as much as 2,000 new applicants for multiple years in a row. So my whole point is that while increasing your odds for applying every year, we are also competing with thousands of people who would not be applying without the lure of points; whereby offsetting any considerable gain in odds for dedicated applicants.

It's all a crap shoot, there is no arguing that. But as far as I can figure, point systems drive up demand so much that there is very little increase in odds, if any at all, sometimes that the only beneficiary are those making money off applications. Like you said, there just aren't enough permits to go around. But the point system is making what little odds we had a whole lot worse.

The odds of drawing in our hypothetical example depend on knowing the bonus points of the applicants, which is only an educated guess based on prior years.  The odds are less than 1 in 50, and that's for the applicant with the most points out of all 12,000+ applicants.

I do not disagree with your point: these systems are designed in large part to raise revenue but creating an addiction.  When you have 10+ moose points, and you've invested for 10 years, how can you drop out now?  Even if your odds of drawing are horrible like 1 in 250, you just can't stop.  That's the attitude they are relying on.

At some point this approach may fail as fewer and fewer new applicants enter the pool.  (When that happens, the person(s) that designed and implemented the systems will be retired and living off their 401k plan, funded in part by these schemes.)

It never will be easy to draw the very best permits in Washington.  Our bonus point system does improve odds for a very small percentage of the applicant pool, but at a cost for all others.

[ShaneTyTrey]

So am I understanding this correctly.  Under Youth Moose a hunter put in with 7 points.  43 applicants with 7 points equals 301 entries under these parameters.  3 tags awarded.  Odds of drawing with only this information in mind is 1 in 100.33.

43 applicants with 7 points is 2,107 entries. You need the number of all entries from all applicants to get the actual odds. Is that what you're asking? Or are you questioning the odds of a hypothetical scenario where only 43 people with 7 points are drawing for 3 tags? In that case, the odds would be 1 in 14.33.

O.K. I failed to remember the 7 in this scenerio is squared.  Much better odds 1 in 15 than what I was monkeying with.  I do get it we would need to calculate ALL participants, square the points, and work back into the odds.  Someday I may have enough time to work on that.

Actually I believe you square the prior year points and add one for the new year.  So seven points has your name in there 37 times not 49.

[Bob33]

"Actually I believe you square the prior year points and add one for the new year.  So seven points has your name in there 37 times not 49."

That is not correct.  You square the current number of points.  Seven points yields 49 names in the proverbial hat.

http://wdfw.wa.gov/help/questions/214/I+heard+that+the+points+have+multipliers+on+them.+What+is+that+for%3F+

"Washington's system places a multiplier on the points. The number of points is squared and it is this number of random numbers that are issued to the application (or number of cards in the barrel). If a person applies for an elk permit for the first time, they have one card in the barrel. If a person has built up two points, they have four cards in the barrel. If a person has three points built up, nine cards are in the barrel and so on."

[ShaneTyTrey]

Super, that is how I did it when I came up with the odds I posted, so i am glad you clarified, now I don't have to make another post.

[cmiller85]

The odds of drawing in our hypothetical example depend on knowing the bonus points of the applicants, which is only an educated guess based on prior years.  The odds are less than 1 in 50, and that's for the applicant with the most points out of all 12,000+ applicants.

Oh, I kind of deviated from the hypothetical I guess when I looked up the actual numbers here.

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2012category_points_anymoose.pdf

Here it shows exactly how many points were in the drawing for 2012, so you can calculate exact odds. Not guesstimate.

Here is what I got for the 1 in 110 odds for max points for 49 degress North:

# of permits: 21
# of applicants: 12,380
# of entries (squared points): 840,380

There were three people with 19 points in this years drawing:

19x19 = 361 entries
361 entries x 21 permits = 7,581 chances
7,581 / 840,380 = .009014

1 / .00914 = 110.93

Unless we are talking about different things, I'm not sure how you're getting 1 in 50. 

[ShaneTyTrey]

As u can see I show less than 1/200 with 8 points