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Author Topic: Is there an elephant in the room  (Read 5886 times)

Offline boneaddict

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Is there an elephant in the room
« on: February 23, 2024, 10:08:21 AM »
Further decline in Yakima archery permits for bulls

Whats your opinion.....

are archery success rates too high, and we are dwindling the resource.
Technology kicking us in the butt
Native American harvest taking more of the resource than is sustainable
Wolves in the area (some say they arent) making a bigger impact
hoof rot here?
Ticks?
Lice?

I am all for manageing a resource and if cuts need to be made, fine but..... kinda wondering on this one

Offline Special T

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #1 on: February 23, 2024, 10:24:32 AM »
The fact is that the pie is shrinking state wide.  We need to do something to kill predators to get the numbers up so we can grow that herd and others. "Management" is the wrong word be cause that implies trying to maximize  size and opportunity. What we currently are doing is rearranging the chairs on the Titanic.  :twocents:
In archery we have something like the way of the superior man. When the archer misses the center of the target, he turns round and seeks for the cause of his failure in himself. 

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Offline boneaddict

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #2 on: February 23, 2024, 10:59:46 AM »
I’ve never heard that anecdote before, but yeah!

Offline hughjorgan

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #3 on: February 23, 2024, 11:11:32 AM »
Further decline in Yakima archery permits for bulls

Whats your opinion.....

are archery success rates too high, and we are dwindling the resource.
Technology kicking us in the butt
Native American harvest taking more of the resource than is sustainable
Wolves in the area (some say they arent) making a bigger impact
hoof rot here?
Ticks?
Lice?

I am all for manageing a resource and if cuts need to be made, fine but..... kinda wondering on this one

Where are you seeing less archery permits for bulls in Yakima. I’ve looked at the cr 102 and don’t see it, am I missing something?

That being said the biologists are saying we have a bull to cow ratio of 13 to 100 for the past couple years and we’re having a relatively easy winter again. The herd has been above objective, I don’t see why there aren’t more permits for cows and bulls. Archery success on the cow permits is really low as well.

Offline boneaddict

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #4 on: February 23, 2024, 11:35:26 AM »
I had a different document than the link you posted which I think was the 102.   I'll see if I can find it, Kinda limited as I am at work. 

Offline Tbar

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #5 on: February 23, 2024, 12:48:54 PM »
It'san interesting question and I don't think it should be an elephant in the room regardless of the reasoning.  We should be able to discuss wildlife related issues.  I'm definitely on the fringe of this one but the first thing that jumps out is the ratio.  13:100 is not great,  not cause for panic but it's a reason you may want to pull back a little.  We would really have to take a deeper dive into age structure to get to root questions. 
Acknowledging that there is over 100 miles of elk fence in Yakima separating elk from their historic critical range is also key. This is not only an issue of marginal habitat but also the lack of escape refuge for predators.  This does not benefit the human harvest. There is also specific seasons (right now) where elk are damned for existence on certain landscapes.  According to your local farm bureau the population and intrusion is at near all time highs.
So I'll offer an overvalued  :twocents: .
Bull population is near minimum according to surveys (?)
Archery success is consistent. Predators play a key role, likely the driver however I would question that it's forcing a trend if other metrics are consistent. Tribal harvest seems consistent, admittedly with little knowledge on this. 
Sustainable is a great question.  Is state management sustainable? Is unlimited harvest of yearling bulls coupled with significant other harvest i.e. draw tags,  landowner tags, master hunters sustainable?
I'm not sure what the recipe for success is but I feel like few have been able to see the forest through the trees and accept that it's a shared resource. 
It's a critical time in this state and really beyond. We all must evolve with the changing dynamics.

Offline Karl Blanchard

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #6 on: February 23, 2024, 12:59:44 PM »
It'san interesting question and I don't think it should be an elephant in the room regardless of the reasoning.  We should be able to discuss wildlife related issues.  I'm definitely on the fringe of this one but the first thing that jumps out is the ratio.  13:100 is not great,  not cause for panic but it's a reason you may want to pull back a little.  We would really have to take a deeper dive into age structure to get to root questions. 
Acknowledging that there is over 100 miles of elk fence in Yakima separating elk from their historic critical range is also key. This is not only an issue of marginal habitat but also the lack of escape refuge for predators.  This does not benefit the human harvest. There is also specific seasons (right now) where elk are damned for existence on certain landscapes.  According to your local farm bureau the population and intrusion is at near all time highs.
So I'll offer an overvalued  :twocents: .
Bull population is near minimum according to surveys (?)
Archery success is consistent. Predators play a key role, likely the driver however I would question that it's forcing a trend if other metrics are consistent. Tribal harvest seems consistent, admittedly with little knowledge on this. 
Sustainable is a great question.  Is state management sustainable? Is unlimited harvest of yearling bulls coupled with significant other harvest i.e. draw tags,  landowner tags, master hunters sustainable?
I'm not sure what the recipe for success is but I feel like few have been able to see the forest through the trees and accept that it's a shared resource. 
It's a critical time in this state and really beyond. We all must evolve with the changing dynamics.
Fantastic post.

I'd also add that I'm highly skeptical of the 13 to 100 cows. Yakima elk population continues to thrive. This year will likely be an all time historic high for our elk herds. Let us kill some Surplus cows and that bull to cow ratio will come into line nicely.
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Offline Tbar

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #7 on: February 23, 2024, 01:07:50 PM »
It'san interesting question and I don't think it should be an elephant in the room regardless of the reasoning.  We should be able to discuss wildlife related issues.  I'm definitely on the fringe of this one but the first thing that jumps out is the ratio.  13:100 is not great,  not cause for panic but it's a reason you may want to pull back a little.  We would really have to take a deeper dive into age structure to get to root questions. 
Acknowledging that there is over 100 miles of elk fence in Yakima separating elk from their historic critical range is also key. This is not only an issue of marginal habitat but also the lack of escape refuge for predators.  This does not benefit the human harvest. There is also specific seasons (right now) where elk are damned for existence on certain landscapes.  According to your local farm bureau the population and intrusion is at near all time highs.
So I'll offer an overvalued  :twocents: .
Bull population is near minimum according to surveys (?)
Archery success is consistent. Predators play a key role, likely the driver however I would question that it's forcing a trend if other metrics are consistent. Tribal harvest seems consistent, admittedly with little knowledge on this. 
Sustainable is a great question.  Is state management sustainable? Is unlimited harvest of yearling bulls coupled with significant other harvest i.e. draw tags,  landowner tags, master hunters sustainable?
I'm not sure what the recipe for success is but I feel like few have been able to see the forest through the trees and accept that it's a shared resource. 
It's a critical time in this state and really beyond. We all must evolve with the changing dynamics.
Fantastic post.

I'd also add that I'm highly skeptical of the 13 to 100 cows. Yakima elk population continues to thrive. This year will likely be an all time historic high for our elk herds. Let us kill some Surplus cows and that bull to cow ratio will come into line nicely.

In an apr unit post season ratios need more info on structure to assess biological needs.

Offline dreamingbig

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #8 on: February 23, 2024, 02:19:24 PM »
It'san interesting question and I don't think it should be an elephant in the room regardless of the reasoning.  We should be able to discuss wildlife related issues.  I'm definitely on the fringe of this one but the first thing that jumps out is the ratio.  13:100 is not great,  not cause for panic but it's a reason you may want to pull back a little.  We would really have to take a deeper dive into age structure to get to root questions. 
Acknowledging that there is over 100 miles of elk fence in Yakima separating elk from their historic critical range is also key. This is not only an issue of marginal habitat but also the lack of escape refuge for predators.  This does not benefit the human harvest. There is also specific seasons (right now) where elk are damned for existence on certain landscapes.  According to your local farm bureau the population and intrusion is at near all time highs.
So I'll offer an overvalued  :twocents: .
Bull population is near minimum according to surveys (?)
Archery success is consistent. Predators play a key role, likely the driver however I would question that it's forcing a trend if other metrics are consistent. Tribal harvest seems consistent, admittedly with little knowledge on this. 
Sustainable is a great question.  Is state management sustainable? Is unlimited harvest of yearling bulls coupled with significant other harvest i.e. draw tags,  landowner tags, master hunters sustainable?
I'm not sure what the recipe for success is but I feel like few have been able to see the forest through the trees and accept that it's a shared resource. 
It's a critical time in this state and really beyond. We all must evolve with the changing dynamics.
Fantastic post.

I'd also add that I'm highly skeptical of the 13 to 100 cows. Yakima elk population continues to thrive. This year will likely be an all time historic high for our elk herds. Let us kill some Surplus cows and that bull to cow ratio will come into line nicely.
Me too.  Consistent trail camera monitoring shows that a I can find all the bulls or b there is much more than 13 to 100.  I will go with B.


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Offline fishngamereaper

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #9 on: February 23, 2024, 03:31:32 PM »
My biggest question is the survey's..

Give me a bio for 5 days and I bet I'll change their mind...

Conservatively I'd say numbers are closer to 20... probably better.
So let's say it's 17. That's 4 extra per 100. That would pencil out to an extra 20-30 bull tags per unit.. easily sustainable. That's not even considering success rates...or lack of.

And I really wish archery would go back to cow or spike. We weren't killing that many cows...unless I draw a permit I'm not even elk hunting anymore...not for a unicorn.


Offline hughjorgan

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #10 on: February 23, 2024, 03:48:39 PM »
I had a different document than the link you posted which I think was the 102.   I'll see if I can find it, Kinda limited as I am at work.

I found it, didn’t scroll far enough in that link I posted…

I am in agreement with what everyone else is saying as well, plenty of bulls and cows. I think a big problem if you read that status and trends put out on a yearly basis is they didn’t do surveys in 2014, 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2021 due to mild winters. If we had that many mild winters in the past decade with another mild winter this year how can this herd be doing so poorly? We all know this to not be the case. Then when they doing their surveys they are coming up with low bull to cow ratios and now we are holding at the lower end of recommended bull to cow ratio.


Offline trophyhunt

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #11 on: February 23, 2024, 07:51:03 PM »
It'san interesting question and I don't think it should be an elephant in the room regardless of the reasoning.  We should be able to discuss wildlife related issues.  I'm definitely on the fringe of this one but the first thing that jumps out is the ratio.  13:100 is not great,  not cause for panic but it's a reason you may want to pull back a little.  We would really have to take a deeper dive into age structure to get to root questions. 
Acknowledging that there is over 100 miles of elk fence in Yakima separating elk from their historic critical range is also key. This is not only an issue of marginal habitat but also the lack of escape refuge for predators.  This does not benefit the human harvest. There is also specific seasons (right now) where elk are damned for existence on certain landscapes.  According to your local farm bureau the population and intrusion is at near all time highs.
So I'll offer an overvalued  :twocents: .
Bull population is near minimum according to surveys (?)
Archery success is consistent. Predators play a key role, likely the driver however I would question that it's forcing a trend if other metrics are consistent. Tribal harvest seems consistent, admittedly with little knowledge on this. 
Sustainable is a great question.  Is state management sustainable? Is unlimited harvest of yearling bulls coupled with significant other harvest i.e. draw tags,  landowner tags, master hunters sustainable?
I'm not sure what the recipe for success is but I feel like few have been able to see the forest through the trees and accept that it's a shared resource. 
It's a critical time in this state and really beyond. We all must evolve with the changing dynamics.
Fantastic post.

I'd also add that I'm highly skeptical of the 13 to 100 cows. Yakima elk population continues to thrive. This year will likely be an all time historic high for our elk herds. Let us kill some Surplus cows and that bull to cow ratio will come into line nicely.
lots of word salad but, I wanna know how Tbar comes up with the native harvest REAL numbers?  Really?  He’s a native and doesn’t even know what the native harvest is in the 346 unit.  Even our spokesperson for the yakama tribe refuses to give us solid numbers… wonder why. 
“In common with”..... not so much!!

Offline hughjorgan

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #12 on: February 23, 2024, 07:57:13 PM »
Does the tribe even keep track of numbers and what GMUs the harvest takes place? If the state is co managing with the tribes does the tribe share their numbers if they have them with the state? I wonder how many more elk are taken by the Muckleshoots, assuming they’re still hunting the east side of 410. Guess it would be nice to have more transparency.

Offline Tbar

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #13 on: February 23, 2024, 08:09:53 PM »
If you guys want to discuss tribal harvest or qualify it as "the elephant in the room" please clarify.  It would seemingly be a tough position seeing as the herd is above objective and objective is based on social carrying capacity and habitat prioritization for economic benefits.  Age structure could be heavily influenced and may be an issue but I'll shed zero tears over management strategies. As previously stated my  :twocents: is really likely and admittedly overvalued. I personally trust the previous anecdotes more than the printed analysis but the analysis is likely underfunded and could be improved upon.

Online Sunbkpk

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Re: Is there an elephant in the room
« Reply #14 on: February 23, 2024, 08:17:35 PM »
if you look at historical data (1992 - 2013) from the 2014 game status report, the Yakima herd supported 50% more bull harvest and double the cow harvest without long term impact to the herd numbers. This indicates something either wrong with the herd estimate numbers or a new factor negatively impacting herd numbers since 2016 that is not accounted for. I suspect predation is a significant factor. 40% of collared Mule deer doe mortality in the Yakima area was from cougars during this time. (page 29 of the 2023 game status report) There is no significant winter kill that I am aware of that can account for this. I also suspect the herd numbers are not nearly as accurate as the report states.
I expect at this rate to not get a bull permit in Yakima again.

 


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