Draw Odds 2012 for Quality Deer in Washington

[idahohuntr]

Below I attached a PDF of draw odds by point total for each quality deer hunt offered in 2012.  Each hunt is listed by hunt number and name (same order as in the 2012 regs).

[jackelope]

How did you calculate them?

[cvandervort]

I did the same for all of the hunts that I am interested in...it's in excel format though
KENTREK published the formula in a different post.
The formula is: [your points^2/((average points^2)*number of applicants)]*number of tags*100 = % odds

I created a spreadsheet that reads just like the regs, but has another column with this formula...makes me SERIOUSLY reconsider some of the hunts I was putting in for. (granted I only have a couple of points...)

PM me if you need more info.

[adamR]

Average points squared doesn't sound very accurate.  Why not get the actual points per person that applied from the game dept and ill bet your numbers are even further rediculous.

[Sawbuck]

Thanks for taking the time to do that

[idahohuntr]

How did you calculate them?

I use the HYPGEOMDIST function in excel and solve for 1 - odds of not drawing.  It is very similar to how Bob33 described his methods in another thread.  It requires you to input the number of tags (chances of success), your point total and the total number of applications.

[Bob33]

Average points squared doesn't sound very accurate.  Why not get the actual points per person that applied from the game dept and ill bet your numbers are even further rediculous.

Average points can be accurately computed from the actual data. Using them will produce meaningful results. Quality Deer was 5.53 points in 2012.

[Ridgerunner]

Yeah the odds definately aren't in anyones favor for drawing, thats for sure.

[bobcat]

Looks like a 4% chance for my deer application. But, I didn't expect any better than that. I'm planning on hunting the general season.

[huntnnw]

i see these and think blah blah

[wilywin]

Below I attached a PDF of draw odds by point total for each quality deer hunt offered in 2012.  Each hunt is listed by hunt number and name (same order as in the 2012 regs).

Depressing...cept i noticed you had chewuch/perrygin as 1026-1027...its actually 1025-1026 (pg23) 

I got my " LOSER "  hat ready! 

[bobcat]

Below I attached a PDF of draw odds by point total for each quality deer hunt offered in 2012.  Each hunt is listed by hunt number and name (same order as in the 2012 regs).

Depressing...cept i noticed you had chewuch/perrygin as 1026-1027...its actually 1025-1026 (pg23) 

I got my " LOSER "  hat ready!

Th hunt numbers he has listed are the 2012 hunt numbers, since that is where all the data came from.

[D-Rock425]

i see these and think blah blah

me too.

[bobcat]

i see these and think blah blah

me too.

Why, you guys can't face reality?

[fishunt247]

Thanks for doing this. Pretty interesting stuff. How do you get the information about average points for quality (or any category for that matter)? Really wish I would have looked at this prior to submitting my apps.

[bearpaw]

   very nice of you to post this!

[Pathfinder101]

Yeah the odds definately aren't in anyones favor for drawing, thats for sure.

That's awfully cynical...

I think the odds are definitely in WDFW's favor.  At $13 a pop, the house wins every time.  All they have to do is creat a couple of new categories every few years and double the prices.  We all play, regardless...

[Ridgeratt]

Yeah the odds definately aren't in anyones favor for drawing, thats for sure.

That's awfully cynical...

I think the odds are definitely in WDFW's favor.  At $13 a pop, the house wins every time.  All they have to do is creat a couple of new categories every few years and double the prices.  We all play, regardless...

They are working on it as you speak!
"It's called a wolf tag"

[idahohuntr]

Thanks for doing this. Pretty interesting stuff. How do you get the information about average points for quality (or any category for that matter)? Really wish I would have looked at this prior to submitting my apps.

The WDFW website has previous years total applications (by point total) for each hunt...that is where I get the info for this stuff.  Even if odds are low I do find this useful for submitting applications...it won't help you draw but it may help you decide on a unit/weapon etc.

[Ridgerunner]

Comment was definitely cynical but I have hit the winning numbers enough I'm addicted to keep playing no matter how bad the odds are!

[washelkhunter]

[/quote]

That's awfully cynical...

I think the odds are definitely in WDFW's favor.  At $13 a pop, the house wins every time.  All they have to do is creat a couple of new categories every few years and double the prices.  We all play, regardless...

[/quote]



I complained several times to the commissioners about this upcharge for a socalled quality permit. In my mind its not quality anything until you draw. It is nothing but socalled revenue enhancement scheme.

[wilsongideon]

yeah its definitly a money scheme....otherwise they would let you apply for free...then only charge the winner the cost of one quality deer tag. the amount they make off one entiat quality deer tag is 2000 dollars plus. be alot less people apply if they had to fork over that much money.

[matt345]

Has anyone one done this for the antler less elk hunts category. I couldn't find a thread for it on here??

[huntnnw]

i see these and think blah blah

me too.

Why, you guys can't face reality?

no its actually quite meaningless...I have drawn several tags...doesnt take a rocket scientist to look at available tags and applicants and see if they are bad or not.