Eastsider sitting on 12 bull elk points, thinking about applying in western WA

[idahohuntr]

You should be able to draw any of the Yak tags with that many points or have a dang good shot at it.   

Which hunts are those? 

You should be able to draw bumping, little naches, bethel, and rimrock easily. I would switch to muzzy and hunt the eastside if you are desperate on cashing in

For rifle hunts in little naches, bethel, rimrock with 12 points you are looking at about 1 in 100 odds.  Eastside muzzy is a little better...1 in 50ish.

http://hunting-washington.com/smf/index.php/topic,148317.0.html

The above link may be helpful for figuring out your chances.

[boneaddict]

I draw about every 4 years in those units, so I must be just lucky, either that or your math is off a bit.  Not sure, as I haven't ran any numbers.

[bobcat]

Boneaddict, you talking archery permits, or rifle? Even if those were archery permits, your luck is well above average if you draw every four years.

[boneaddict]

I mix them up so hard to say on that. I was thinking rifle in my mind as I was also considering what my dad drew and what my wife has drawn.(average 3 points)

Wondering, is  the math per tag, and if there are 20 tags its ___________odds, or is the 1 in 100 the end game with number of tags considered.

also curious if this takes in  4 different or is it 2 now, units to choose from?

[jackelope]

Boneaddict, you talking archery permits, or rifle? Even if those were archery permits, your luck is well above average if you draw every four years.

I assume he's talking archery permits. Average points to draw Rimrock or Bethel for the sake of conversation was 5 in 2012.  We'll know what the 2013 averages are when the reg's come out.

[jackelope]

Boneaddict, you talking archery permits, or rifle? Even if those were archery permits, your luck is well above average if you draw every four years.

I assume he's talking archery permits. Average points to draw Rimrock or Bethel for the sake of conversation was 5 in 2012.  We'll know what the 2013 averages are when the reg's come out.

Rifle permits average for the same permits was 11.

[bobcat]

Average points of the people who drew permits means nothing. Idahohunter has calculated all the odds. That's what you need to look at.

Just as an example, look at the Peaches Ridge early rifle permit. There was one permit and in 2012, 1102 people applied.

It shows average points is 4. So does that mean a person will draw that permit every four years?

[Harbor_hunter]

Stick to the east side.  I am guessing you have 12 points in the bull category as well?  Lot more tags to draw versus west side tags.   

[D-Rock425]

I'd stay on the eastside.

[idahohuntr]

I mix them up so hard to say on that. I was thinking rifle in my mind as I was also considering what my dad drew and what my wife has drawn.(average 3 points)

Wondering, is  the math per tag, and if there are 20 tags its ___________odds, or is the 1 in 100 the end game with number of tags considered.

also curious if this takes in  4 different or is it 2 now, units to choose from?

Yes, math is your odds of drawing 1 of those 20 (or whatever) tags...your odds are a little higher when you factor in your multiple choices which are not reflected in the odds I calculate.  But yes, if you are drawing rifle little naches/bethel/rimrock tags every 4 years or so...you are a) astronomically lucky or b) mailing an extra couple of $100 bills to the guy who runs the draw   

[jackelope]

Average points of the people who drew permits means nothing. Idahohunter has calculated all the odds. That's what you need to look at.

Just as an example, look at the Peaches Ridge early rifle permit. There was one permit and in 2012, 1102 people applied.

It shows average points is 4. So does that mean a person will draw that permit every four years?

No, it doesn't. But does anything show exactly when you'll draw?
It's a good guideline maybe. Not when there's only 1 permit I guess.

[Curly]

Has anyone mentioned multi-season permit yet?  That seems like the way to go.  Get drawn for the multi season permit, then you can apply for eastside draws while having a westside tag.  Then if you don't draw an eastside permit, just hunt for branch bulls during general season on the westside.

[jackelope]

Has anyone mentioned multi-season permit yet?  That seems like the way to go.  Get drawn for the multi season permit, then you can apply for eastside draws while having a westside tag.  Then if you don't draw an eastside permit, just hunt for branch bulls during general season on the westside.

The only problem with that is that it's getting to be as hard to draw a MS elk permit as it is drawing a big bull permit.
 

[Bob33]

"Average points" are utterly worthless in computing draw odds.

They serve one, and only one purpose: giving applicants who do not understand how the draw works an unrealistic hope of drawing when they are close to having "average points."

[Woodchuck]