Almost time to find out if you drew an OIL TAG

[X-Force]

Dont worry about the odds. Send out good vibes by taking the Mountain Goat Gender Identification Test

[Ironhead]

The way Washington's draw process works makes points pretty much useless. For instance Swakane Ram tag, 20 points = .09% chance to draw   -   1 point =  less than .001% chance to draw. So 20 years of applying gets you a .09% greater chance to draw than a person that applied for their first time ever.

[X-Force]

The way Washington's draw process works makes points pretty much useless. For instance Swakane Ram tag, 20 points = .09% chance to draw   -   1 point =  less than .001% chance to draw. So 20 years of applying gets you a .09% greater chance to draw than a person that applied for their first time ever.

You get a 90x greater change to draw then the first time applying... but your odds are still garbage at .09%

[avidnwoutdoorsman]

Working on some other things/visuals but here is a broad distribution of who got drawn.

Antlered Moose Draw Distribution (Total):
104 total permits:
0-5 points = 3 selected
6-10 points = 9 selected
11-15 points = 39 selected
16-20 points = 42 selected
21-25 points = 7 selected

49 Degrees North has the most telling information of who is applying with 10456 applicants for that hunt #8006, (I can't differentiate obviously hunt choice multiple picks):
25   3
24   2
23   158
22   104
21   79
20   282 - 1 Selected
19   284 - 1 Selected
18   294 - 3 Selected
17   331 - 2 Selected
16   362 - 1 Selected
15   455 - 2 Selected
14   431 - 1 Selected
13   464 - 1 Selected
12   516 - 1 Selected
11   525
10   539
9   513
8   539
7   487
6   541
5   592
4   714
3   644
2   738
1   859

[Stein]

For oils, it’s like saying the 6’ tall guy has a way higher chance of getting hit by lightning than the 5’4” guy. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jstone]

I am 6’1” so I have an even better chance

[jackelope]

I’m 6’4” so that’s why I drew with 9 pts.

[Pathfinder101]

I’m 6’4” so that’s why I drew with 9 pts.

Well... this theory makes as much sense as any I have heard yet.  I'm only 5'6" and have never drawn a quality tag of any kind in 18 years. 

I'm calling my *&%ing congressman...

[X-Force]