Oregon Seed Numbers and Application Numbers are posted

[kselkhunter]

If you applied in Oregon, your application numbers were visible at 7am this morning in your ODFW account.  The seed drawing was done on ODFW's Youtube channel at 9am.  Zero chance of me drawing in the 25% pool, nor an OIL or Premium tag....my app numbers are too far above the seed number.  Official results post on June 20. 

Here are the Seed Numbers:
Goat                      6104290
Sheep                9881595
Elk                           9252880
Buck                           8879923
Antlerless   Deer         5421431
Antelope                   4529338
Premium Elk       0275018
Premium Buck      3255580
Premium Antelope   0815904

[D-Rock425]

I don't understand Oregon's system.

[High Climber]

Me either I’ve never taken the time to wrap my head around the seed number thing

[kselkhunter]

Official results post on June 20.  So you can just ignore it until then.  If you want a sneak peak, you can compare the seed number to your app number for a specific controlled hunt.


Oregon assigns a random number to your application for a controlled hunt at the time you apply, although the number can change if you change during the "change period" after submission.  Which is why the app number wasn't visible in our accounts until this morning (you had until yesterday to make changes to your application).  Oregon then does a live feed drawing on YouTube where members of the public are invited to pull the ping pong balls from the ping pong mixer.  So it's a double random number situation, one for your app # and one for the seed number.   Oregon's software then starts at the seed number and indexes tags handed out above that seed number based on the closest application to the seed number. And keeps going until all tags are handed out.  75% of the tags go to the highest point holders.  25% of the tags are lottery draw, but start with the same seed number as the 75% pool did.  For OIL and Premium tags, it's just the same process as the 25% pool....lottery as there are not preference points for OIL or Premium draws.


So it's really those of us hoping to pull in the 25% pool, or hoping to pull an OIL, that are really paying attention to the seed/app number release today.  Because if you have the number of points to pull the tag in the 75% pool, you don't really care about app number vs. seed number.


Example:
Sheep seed # is 9881595.    If your application number is 9881596, you're guaranteed drawing a sheep tag.  If you're application number is 9881594, you're guaranteed not drawing that tag (because there will always be more people applying for sheep tags than number of tags available).  And in between becomes a calculation assuming an equal distribution as an estimate.  If you applied as a non-resident for John Day #2, and there was a similar number of non-resident applications as last year at 1,730 applicants going after 2 tags.  So each application would be spread roughly every 5780 numbers.  So if you're sitting on an application number say 5,000 above the seed number and there are two tags available, you'll be watching very closely for results to post in your account on June 20th.  But it's not an equal distribution, and I've seen people pull a sheep tag being 30K above the seed number and even one guy was 102K above the seed number one year.  However, if you're millions of numbers away from the sheep seed number, then you know you are not drawing that tag....

[kselkhunter]

@vandeman17 your inbox is full (tried replying to your PM on this topic)

[vandeman17]

@vandeman17 your inbox is full (tried replying to your PM on this topic)

cleared space

[mp.hunter]

Well I’m off 18k for premium elk, I may have a chance


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[kselkhunter]

Well I’m off 18k for premium elk, I may have a chance


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Depends on which unit and how many people applied, but yeah I'd be watching my ODFW account on June 20th closely if I were only 18K over.....

My closest application is 1.3M over.  The rest are all in the 3.2M to 8.6M over range.  Bad year of app numbers for me....

[mp.hunter]

Well I’m off 18k for premium elk, I may have a chance


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Depends on which unit and how many people applied, but yeah I'd be watching my ODFW account on June 20th closely if I were only 18K over.....

My closest application is 1.3M over.  The rest are all in the 3.2M to 8.6M over range.  Bad year of app numbers for me....

It had 315 apps last year


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[haftard]

realy wish i didnt look into this more.

[kselkhunter]

Well I’m off 18k for premium elk, I may have a chance


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Depends on which unit and how many people applied, but yeah I'd be watching my ODFW account on June 20th closely if I were only 18K over.....

My closest application is 1.3M over.  The rest are all in the 3.2M to 8.6M over range.  Bad year of app numbers for me....

It had 315 apps last year


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Based on 315 apps, that is an average distribution of application numbers every 31,746.  If you're only 18K over.....you have a decent chance.  Of course the distribution won't be an average distribution for those 315 apps so somebody could end up in front of you...but you have a great application number.  Good luck.  Hope you get it.  My best friend drew a Premium elk tag the first year they were offered, and it's great having such a long season and any weapon choice. 

[robescc]

I was an Oregon rez for eight years and I’ve never heard of this until now. Now that I’m considered an out of stater, I am not a very excited about my odds. But if these numbers are correct I’ll be drawing my bull tag, antelope tag and in the running for premium elk. Wish me luck.

[ShaneTyTrey]

Almost had a party, but my son was super close but below the number for goat, just missed!

[Ricochet]

As a resident, I drew deer, elk, and antelope last year. It appears from looking at my application numbers I'm a lock for elk and antelope this year with a very good chance for the trifecta again. But still no bighorn after 55 years.

[MeepDog]

I don't understand the difference between the resident applications and the non resident. Are they different pools? Diff odds at all?

[kselkhunter]

I don't understand the difference between the resident applications and the non resident. Are they different pools? Diff odds at all?

Non-residents get allocated a percentage of the tags available in Oregon.  Antelope is 3% limit, elk/deer/bear is 5% limit, and sheep/goat is no less than 5% and no more than 10%. And every other year the outfitters get access to half of the non-resident tags (whatever tags the outfitters don't purchase by April 15 goes back into the controlled drawing for non-residents). 

So your odds vary based on how many non-residents apply for the specific tag you applied for, compared to how many non-resident tags are available for that hunt. 

[Ricochet]

Ron Wold's site, http://oregontags.com/ will give you an idea of your chances as a non-resident. Find your hunt, find your point level, and see what percentage you have.  If he says you have a 10% chance, then your application number better be within 10% above the seed number. Nothing will be exact as the application numbers are randomly generated but it'll give you an idea. When I say 10% above the seed, I mean ten percent of the total possibilities, i.e. 10% of the total of 10,000,000 possible number combinations would be 1,000,000. No genius level math involved, Ron's algorithms have already estimated the number of current applicants, (both resident and non-resident, different charts IF the number of non-resident applications exceeds the limit) at your point level so the draw percentage is the percentage of the total possibilities you need to be within to draw. Some of the severely limited hunts will show a 0% chance for non-residents, which means there was only 1 tag available and it goes to an outfitter on alternating years.

[HAGEMANIAC]

My Elk # is 8002372, so I'm assuming that is awful?

[ShaneTyTrey]

My Elk # is 8002372, so I'm assuming that is awful?

Yes, that is awful.

[Browndawg]

My Elk # is 8002372, so I'm assuming that is awful?

Yes, that is awful.

Your number is closer than mine. Disappointing for sure.

[ShaneTyTrey]

Mine were all pretty bad also.

[HAGEMANIAC]

My Elk # is 8002372, so I'm assuming that is awful?

Yes, that is awful.

Your number is closer than mine. Disappointing for sure.

The disappointing part for me is the unit I'd normally hunt went to draw, so that $50 dollar tag now costs me $588 and I would have to burn my points to get it unless I get lucky enough to draw it as a second choice.

[vandeman17]

My Elk # is 8002372, so I'm assuming that is awful?

Ours is bad too

[vandeman17]

Tick tock tick tock

[finnman]

Sorry boys but I have refused to look. Call me old fashion but I am waiting for my official results and my official disappointment. 🤣

[Crunchy]

They draw yet?  After WA I am not holding my breathe.

[kselkhunter]

ODFW only releases official results on June 20th now.  No more early releases.

[vandeman17]

ODFW only releases official results on June 20th now.  No more early releases.

Well shoot. That is a bummer but I will say that knowing this going forward, I will be happy. Tell me ahead of time when the draw date is and I am good with it

[rtspring]

ODFW only releases official results on June 20th now.  No more early releases.

Not true!  The hunting book says “by june 20th”. Also june 20th is a holiday! 

[rtspring]

Read

[vandeman17]

Read

This is what I thought as well but who the heck knows anymore. I just keep waiting to see an Oregon draw results thread to pop up then I was going to go check

[mp.hunter]

I think last year they released the results on the date they said which was on a weekend day, Sunday maybe?


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[ShaneTyTrey]

Correct, they did release on June 20 which was a Sunday!

[Bone collector 13]

Anyone know what time tomorrow?

[rtspring]

Anyone know what time tomorrow?

No one really knows!!!  Im guessing early am