Preference points

[huntnnw]

If 10 guys apply with each having 10% odds, the probability that one of them draws a tag is 65.132% not 100%.  It gets exponentially worse as you increase the number of applications.  A system like Idaho would be an enormous boost to draw odds.

there would be a huge increase in odds for some with ID system.

[Ghost Hunter]

If you increase odds for one person the odds decrease for another. You can't change the odds without changing the number of people applying for permits, or changing the number of permits.

    At least that's what my simple mind comes up with.   

[Stein]

I support that system (ID) because it forces people to prioritize their applications.  They can't apply for everything so they have to decide what is most valuable to them.  Odds for that tag increase and their odds for the other tags they can't apply for goes to zero. 

Say there is one elk tag and one deer tag and only you and I apply and we each apply for both tags every year.  I have a 50% chance of drawing the deer tag and 50% chance of drawing the elk tag.  Same with you.  One day we are chatting when I mention I really want to hunt elk next year.  Funny, you really want to hunt deer next year!  So, we make a deal, I will only apply for elk if you only apply for deer.  Perfect, I get a 100% chance of drawing elk and you get a 100% chance of drawing deer.  On the flip side, my odds for deer were 0% and your odds for elk were 0%.  We made a trade, I gave you my odds for the deer tag in return for you giving me your odds for the elk tag.

In this situation, one could say our odds went up.  If you are looking only at the one tag I applied for, they did.  If you look at the overall system, nothing changed.  It all depends on one's perspective. 

The problem with WA is the overall odds are so low that going to this system wouldn't make as noticeable difference as one would hope.  Like my previous example, if there are one elk and one deer tag but now there are 1,000 people instead of just the two of us, I have a 0.1% chance of drawing the elk tag under the old system.  If you force a choice and assume half will chose deer and half will chose elk, the odds for me drawing my elk tag only increases to 0.2%.  Net result, who cares?

When you go to your favorite charity dinner auction, there is a prize table with a can behind each prize to put tickets into.  One guy buys 10 tickets and puts them all in one can.  Another guy buys 10 tickets and spreads them out to 10 cans.  Who is right?

The "best" system could be one where you can do both depending on what you like.  If there are 10 permit categories you can apply for all 10, use all 10 applications in one category, or put five in elk and five in moose, whatever you want.  Everyone can submit up to 10.  State gets the same amount of money and we get all new reasons to be grumpy after the draw.

[High Climber]

I would support an ID style where you could choose Elk and Deer, Or Sheep Or Moose, Or goat.
-consider everyone’s first choice before anyone’s second etc.
-one year? waiting period if you draw deer or elk
-keep bonus points as they are

[huntnnw]

If you increase odds for one person the odds decrease for another. You can't change the odds without changing the number of people applying for permits, or changing the number of permits.

    At least that's what my simple mind comes up with.   

If we went to a Idaho type system I can’t see a single category where the odds get worse . Problem here is everyone wants to apply for everything with tons of selections per app

[Stein]

It's possible, but I agree unlikely.  On paper, there could be a category where everyone piles in because they think the odds would be all of a sudden really good.  It would have to be a tag that had very limited applications in the past.

There have been polls here in the past and there are people that put a value on being able to apply for everything.  It isn't wrong or right, they just look at it differently.

For OIL tags in WA, it doesn't matter what they do, the odds will be horrific unless they convince 90%+ of the people to not apply one way or another.  It's a Powerball ticket.

In order to boost odds for something, you have to be willing to give something else up.  There isn't much to give up unfortunately

[WAcoueshunter]

If you increase odds for one person the odds decrease for another. You can't change the odds without changing the number of people applying for permits, or changing the number of permits.

    At least that's what my simple mind comes up with.   

If we went to a Idaho type system I can’t see a single category where the odds get worse . Problem here is everyone wants to apply for everything with tons of selections per app

Odds are worse (zero) if you can't apply for the category because you already applied for another category.  That's how it averages out.  You get better odds for your one category in exchange for zero odds on everything else.  I think Bobcat's point is that overall odds stay the same - same number of total tags (all categories) for same number applicants (all categories). 

[hunter399]

All I know is I'm currently working OT.
To buy in for my very tiny tiny tiny chance of the selected being in my account.

[buglebrush]

If you increase odds for one person the odds decrease for another. You can't change the odds without changing the number of people applying for permits, or changing the number of permits.

    At least that's what my simple mind comes up with.   

If we went to a Idaho type system I can’t see a single category where the odds get worse . Problem here is everyone wants to apply for everything with tons of selections per app

Odds are worse (zero) if you can't apply for the category because you already applied for another category.  That's how it averages out.  You get better odds for your one category in exchange for zero odds on everything else.  I think Bobcat's point is that overall odds stay the same - same number of total tags (all categories) for same number applicants (all categories).

That's his point, but it's wrong.  Number of applicants is irrelevant, because it's the number of applications that matter.  Math doesn't work like he thinks it does.  See my post above about 10 hunters at 10% odds. 

[Stein]

I think you guys are arguing the same thing.  If you don't submit an application, you aren't an applicant.

Long story short, if you want something, you either have to take it from someone or give something else in return.

[Pegasus]

Has anyone heard what they plan to do with your preference points for spring bear? Will they refund the money or allow them to be switched to another category? How many others have bear preference points that are now useless?

[trophyhunt]

Has anyone heard what they plan to do with your preference points for spring bear? Will they refund the money or allow them to be switched to another category? How many others have bear preference points that are now useless?

Haven't heard of anything from shanequa, I'm betting the wdfw is just waiting for a solution, like the hunt comes back as a management hunt or something and peeps can use their points again.  I'd complain directly but I only have one point, it does seem that it would be a legal mess if someone smart went after wdfw and had all the point holders on their side.

[Bob33]

Has anyone heard what they plan to do with your preference points for spring bear? Will they refund the money or allow them to be switched to another category? How many others have bear preference points that are now useless?

Haven't heard of anything from shanequa, I'm betting the wdfw is just waiting for a solution, like the hunt comes back as a management hunt or something and peeps can use their points again.  I'd complain directly but I only have one point, it does seem that it would be a legal mess if someone smart went after wdfw and had all the point holders on their side.

I have Youth Moose points. Maybe I'll be 15 again some day.

[hughjorgan]

Has anyone heard what they plan to do with your preference points for spring bear? Will they refund the money or allow them to be switched to another category? How many others have bear preference points that are now useless?

Why should they refund your money or allow you to switch your points? It is a LOTTERY, you pay to play once a year. If you don’t draw no one is hollering at the WDFW to refund their purchase. You played the lottery and lost, it’s time to move on. Bonus points are a scam that sinks your hooks into you with the false hope that some how you have substantially better odds of winning a draw(LOTTERY).

[Pegasus]

Has anyone heard what they plan to do with your preference points for spring bear? Will they refund the money or allow them to be switched to another category? How many others have bear preference points that are now useless?

Why should they refund your money or allow you to switch your points? It is a LOTTERY, you pay to play once a year. If you don’t draw no one is hollering at the WDFW to refund their purchase. You played the lottery and lost, it’s time to move on. Bonus points are a scam that sinks your hooks into you with the false hope that some how you have substantially better odds of winning a draw(LOTTERY).

Actually I used the points option and thus did not lose any drawing. The WDFW created the system that allowed the accumulation of points for future drawings that are now nonexistent for spring bear. They created the system, not me. Technically it is not a lottery as online lottery purchases are illegal in Washington. That is why you can't purchase their raffle tickets online.