Oregon Spring Bear.....Seed number

[ShaneTyTrey]

Do they post a seed number for Oregon Spring Bear.  I see the numbers have been given to each applicant.

Thanks

[Sliverslinger]

I’d love to understand a bit more about how this works. My buddy insists that with 1 point it’s a 0.00000 % chance in Oregon for most of the good bear and elk units. I thought there was some portion of Oregon tags allotted to random draw (25% rings a bell) so that theoretically there was still some minuscule chance for any tag in the state, even for nonresidents.

[ShaneTyTrey]

No, because non-residents get so few of the tags they pretty much get used up in the preference point pool.  Their system isn’t like Utah, Wyoming or Arizona where you still have a chance with zero points.  At least not on most hunts.  That is the way I understand it, those other states have allocated tags for non-residents of a certain amount, Oregon has an up to a certain amount.

[Doublelunger]

Do they post a seed number for Oregon Spring Bear.  I see the numbers have been given to each applicant.

Thanks

I've been looking for seed numbers but haven't found them anywhere yet. I think a direct call to the licensing dept would be a good option.

[Doublelunger]

I’d love to understand a bit more about how this works. My buddy insists that with 1 point it’s a 0.00000 % chance in Oregon for most of the good bear and elk units. I thought there was some portion of Oregon tags allotted to random draw (25% rings a bell) so that theoretically there was still some minuscule chance for any tag in the state, even for nonresidents.

Totally depends on the unit. Yes your odds are way worse as a non res but some hunts are still reasonable to draw. With 0 points you have a 42% chance to draw Starky for spring bear as a non resident.

https://oregontags.com/700-series-spring-bear/

[ShaneTyTrey]

Results will be posted Thursday morning early, pry just wait and see.

[Doublelunger]

Here ya go

[ShaneTyTrey]

That isn’t good.  Have one in the 4’s and one in the 7’s, both with 6 points for Mt Emily. 

[Doublelunger]

That isn’t good.  Have one in the 4’s and one in the 7’s, both with 6 points for Mt Emily.

Non resident??

[CasterlyRock]

What does the seed number tell us?

[Doublelunger]

What does the seed number tell us?

Oh man. Its hard to explain. Ill try my best to not thoroughly confuse you. The seed number is drawn at random and then tags are given out starting at that number and working up giving them out based on application numbers. So basically you want your app number to be right above the seed number.  If you have max points it doesn't really matter. For example let's say a hunt has 100% odds with 6 points and 50% odds with 5 points. If you're sitting on 5 points then you'd want your application number to be within 500,000 of the seed number. The closer the better obviously. If it was a 10% chance then you'd want your app number to be within 100,000 of the seed number etc.

[time2hunt]

What it really means is just wait tell the 20th when they post results.


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[ShaneTyTrey]

That isn’t good.  Have one in the 4’s and one in the 7’s, both with 6 points for Mt Emily.

Non resident??

Yes

[Doublelunger]

That isn’t good.  Have one in the 4’s and one in the 7’s, both with 6 points for Mt Emily.

Non resident??

Yes

Ya I doubt you draw. Your app in the 4's is still probably 3.5 million too far away.

[CasterlyRock]

Thank you for the explanation. I'm not sweating it, just curious why Oregon uses Quantum mechanics and voodoo to pick bear hunters.

[Alan K]

I like it, think it provides a little more transparency than most states. 

Who knows with WA, we just get a thumbs up or thumbs down. Don't know that I trust their formula to be punched in correctly, remember last year's fiasco?