Locating your points?

[WDFW-SUX]

I was thinking more along the lines of an exact mathematical formula for the points that square and the number of applicants per pool ala MM or hunt odds...

[SI Eagle]

1point or 11. With our system I am not sure it really matters that much. Good luck.

[Bob33]

1point or 11. With our system I am not sure it really matters that much. Good luck.

It does matter, but it does not appear to matter to the extent that it should. Someone with 10 points should have a 100 times better chance of drawing than someone with 1 point. When you look at the actual number of applicants drawn by point level for every specie, the odds increase along what is almost a straight line: in other words, someone with 10 points is drawing 10 times more frequently than someone with 1 point, not 100 times more. 

[yelp]

I have always wondered if they draw the hunts in order?  Hunter number wise?  Or does it matter if you place your first choice ahead of your second and so on..  I know that the truth is you won't get drawn unless you put in even if the odds are not in your favor.  Most of the odds this year I believe will be a crap shoot especially for certain weapon groups.  We'll see.   

[billythekidrock]

I believe it matters in what order you put them down.

[Bob33]

Or does it matter if you place your first choice ahead of your second and so on..

Yes it does matter.  Everyone that applies essentially has one or more names in a hat for each subcategory in which he applies.  It is not a literal hat: the drawing is by computer, but you can think of it as a hat.  If you have one point, your name goes in the hat once. In theory, points are squared so someone with ten points should have 10x10 or 100 names in the hat.

Everyone will have his name drawn from the hat once.  

When your name is drawn, your first choice is considered. Is there a permit available for your first hunt choice?  If yes, you are awarded the permit, and you are done.  If no, your second choice (assuming you have one) is considered. Is a permit available?  If yes, you are awarded a permit for your second choice.  If no, you third choice is considered.  Is a permit available?  If yes, you are awarded the permit.  If not, your fourth choice is considered.  If a permit is available for your fourth hunt choice, you are awarded the permit.  If not, you are done and will not draw.

The advantage of having multiple names in the hat is that you are likely to be drawn earlier in the process, thereby having a greater chance that one of your choices is still available.

[bobcat]

The order you list your 4 choices only matters in that it will determine which one you draw, if you are drawn at all. If you put say, the Desert late mule deer permit down as a 4th choice and Chiwawa as a 1st choice, there is virtually no chance of drawing the Desert permit. With the Desert having 15 permits and 5000 applicants, and Chiwawa having 25 permits and 2400 applicants, if your name comes up early enough in the drawing that there is a Chiwawa permit available, you will get it. If all the Chiwawa permits have been issued, and they go on down your choices and get to the 4th choice, what are the odds that all the Desert permits have not been issued as well?

So basically what you have done if you put a harder to draw hunt after another hunt in your list of choices, is you have wasted one of your four choices. If you go for a permit like the Desert, it should always be listed as a 1st choice. Otherwise you will draw one of your other choices first, and never have a shot at the Desert. But your order doesn't affect your odds of being drawn for one of the permits. Of course now with the quality permits there are only two choices, so there's not quite so much to think about as far as order. But still, the same thing is true, if you were to put down Desert as one choice and Chiwawa as another, it wouldn't make sense to have Desert as a #2 choice.

[provider]

The data in the website indicates how many applicants there were at each point level, and how many actually drew.  For example, for moose there were 7 applicants with 16 points, and 1 of them drew: 1 / 7 = 14%.  There were 11 applicants with 15 points and none drew: 0/15 = 0%.  There were 509 applicants with 14 points and 17 drew: 17/509 = 3.3%, and so forth for each point level.

How do some applicants have more than 14 points?

[Bob33]

The data in the website indicates how many applicants there were at each point level, and how many actually drew.  For example, for moose there were 7 applicants with 16 points, and 1 of them drew: 1 / 7 = 14%.  There were 11 applicants with 15 points and none drew: 0/15 = 0%.  There were 509 applicants with 14 points and 17 drew: 17/509 = 3.3%, and so forth for each point level.

How do some applicants have more than 14 points?

Turning in a poacher can result in 10 points.  Also, some were given an extra point a few years back when WDFW made an error in drawing.

[provider]

Information provided leading to a conviction for a wildlife violation, can result in being awarded up to 10 bonus points, but those can only go towards deer or elk points...  not OIL.

So it appears 18 applicants have been awarded extra points at sometime since 1996.  Because of the exponential affect these points have (and they do), I question who they are arbitrarily awarding points too and why.  Is it consistent and what criteria constitutes getting awarded extra bonus points?

[Bob33]

Right.  Since they only 16 points poaching could not have been the answer anyway.  Somewhere along the way they picked up two points from some other unknown cause.

[bobcat]

Maybe these were the 18 people who supported the changes to the permit system this year? 

[WDFW-SUX]

 

Im pretty sure the 2 extra points were for having the incorrect number of points applied to there account for a number of years........like 5   

[bobcat]

How do we know the people with 16 points acquired 2 points in some way other than applying for permits? I mean, couldn't they have been given 10 points for whatever reason?  (like providing public testimony in support of the changes to the permit system this year)   

[Curly]

Maybe these were the 18 people who supported the changes to the permit system this year? 

Hell, the state gave out points like candy on Halloween before the draw this year.  Everyone was given points they hadn't earned in all categories..........