Free: Contests & Raffles.
I've never been able to figure out how to calculate odds in a weighted point system like we have. You can't calculate 1:1 because it's not that way. I don't personally think there's any truly accurate way to calculate odds. You can do it based on averages, like average the number of points someone has when they apply but we don't have access to that info. Just my opinion...I just have never been able to figure out how people come up with odds.
Here are your odds in 2009 with the various amounts of points. Obviously now that the categories have been broken down, only two choices allowed in the quality category etc. things have changed. I really wish the WDFW would publish information like they did in 2009 so that everyone can calculate their true odds. By the way, I used the following link to get the information needed for the calculation:http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html
I can tell you what your odds are for a late rifle mule deer tag: Poor at best and if your lucky you'll draw once in your lifetime.
Quote from: jackelope on April 20, 2011, 07:19:05 AMI've never been able to figure out how to calculate odds in a weighted point system like we have. You can't calculate 1:1 because it's not that way. I don't personally think there's any truly accurate way to calculate odds. You can do it based on averages, like average the number of points someone has when they apply but we don't have access to that info. Just my opinion...I just have never been able to figure out how people come up with odds.What Alan K did is about as accurate as you're gonna get. You can take a look at past years data and assume that applicants will be similar for other years.Quote from: Alan K on April 19, 2011, 10:43:30 PMHere are your odds in 2009 with the various amounts of points. Obviously now that the categories have been broken down, only two choices allowed in the quality category etc. things have changed. I really wish the WDFW would publish information like they did in 2009 so that everyone can calculate their true odds. By the way, I used the following link to get the information needed for the calculation:http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html
Quote from: Bigshooter on April 20, 2011, 07:44:51 AMI can tell you what your odds are for a late rifle mule deer tag: Poor at best and if your lucky you'll draw once in your lifetime. I drew last year with 4 points.
Yeah, that is a good point. It is going to be really hard to estimate odds of drawing for a while since so many people had lots of points dumped into the various categories. Antlerless permits are going to be really hard to draw for a while.
Quote from: jackelope on April 20, 2011, 12:32:19 PMQuote from: Bigshooter on April 20, 2011, 07:44:51 AMI can tell you what your odds are for a late rifle mule deer tag: Poor at best and if your lucky you'll draw once in your lifetime. I drew last year with 4 points. You might as well stop applying then. That was your one time.
Quote from: Curly on April 20, 2011, 12:41:11 PMYeah, that is a good point. It is going to be really hard to estimate odds of drawing for a while since so many people had lots of points dumped into the various categories. Antlerless permits are going to be really hard to draw for a while.I don't see them get any easier to draw. More guys are applying now for tags they have in the past. I think it's only going to get harder to draw tags that use to be fairly easy to draw.
Quote from: Bigshooter on April 20, 2011, 01:18:45 PMQuote from: Curly on April 20, 2011, 12:41:11 PMYeah, that is a good point. It is going to be really hard to estimate odds of drawing for a while since so many people had lots of points dumped into the various categories. Antlerless permits are going to be really hard to draw for a while.I don't see them get any easier to draw. More guys are applying now for tags they have in the past. I think it's only going to get harder to draw tags that use to be fairly easy to draw. You need to be turning a lot of people over to 0 points every year to see odds get better. And there are not enough tags given out to do that.I suspec that people will be burning their points quick in the antlerless or 2nd deer categories. That or not applying at all. So maybe the odds will improve on them quicker than maybe we think. I drew a 2nd deer tag last year too so I have no points there. I will put in for it again and it'll be interesting to see what happens. What I'm really interested in seeing this year will be the "Buck Deer" category and how that plays out. Will permits that folks drew with 4-5 points now take 7-8 to draw? We shall see.
Quote from: Curly on April 20, 2011, 12:41:11 PMYeah, that is a good point. It is going to be really hard to estimate odds of drawing for a while since so many people had lots of points dumped into the various categories. Antlerless permits are going to be really hard to draw for a while.I don't see them get any easier to draw. More guys are applying now for tags they have in the past. I think it's only going to get harder to draw tags that use to be fairly easy to draw. You need to be turning a lot of people over to 0 points every year to see odds get better. And there are not enough tags given out to do that.
I suspec that people will be burning their points quick in the antlerless or 2nd deer categories. That or not applying at all. So maybe the odds will improve on them quicker than maybe we think.
not totally rightWashington's system places a multiplier on the points. The number of points is squared and it is this number of random numbers that are issued to the application (or number of cards in the barrel). If a person applies for an elk permit for the first time, they have one card in the barrel. If a person has built up two points, they have four cards in the barrel. If a person has three points built up, nine cards are in the barrel and so on. Placing a multiplier on the points more noticeably increases the chances of being selected over someone who is a new applicant or was recently awarded a permit.
