What would you do with 23 elk points?

[Bob33]

I think the odds are even lower when you figure the effects of squaring the points - if you had 7 people with points from 1 through 7 they would have a total of 140 "chances" in the drawing.  Take another 7 people each with 8 to 14 points and they would have 1100 "chances".  The result is there are more "chances" in the pot than if just figuring everyone at 7.5 years squared.

 In the end with 23 pts you still need to be lucky to draw, with less than 14 points you need to be real lucky.

?
Pts   Chances
8   64
9   81
10   100
11   121
12   144
13   169
14   196

Total   875

[saylean]

Put in for clockum or nooksack would be what I would do.

[shedcrazy]

BLUES

[bucklucky]

Margret or the Toutle, there are masher bulls everywhere in there. I got guys that tell me about all the 350 class bulls they see in there all the time 

[Skyvalhunter]

So so many choices. Its pretty amazing that you have got to this many points at this stage

[SkookumHntr]

whats not true?? I know people did draw with 13 points but in the wenaha west last year muzzy the 3 people had 2, 4, and 6 points. that came streight from the wdfw.  Anyway, all this waiting has been a drag. I was just thinking about this years draw and thought about putting in for a ghost point for quality and putting in for a bull tag on the west side which should be a heck of alot easier to draw. Atleast then I can plan on hunting big bulls in the rut.

-You might wanta check your info on that!

I was going to say I was pretty sure one of the muzzy guys had a ass load of points last year in the wenaha west 

I know for a fact 1 did! lol

[YoterHunter]

okey. so what ive seen on this thred for points. i will have 24 points this year when i put in. i drew mud flow cow tag last year. so do i still have 24 points for qulity hunt.and if i drew a tag for that .do i still have 24 points for a bull tag.

[50CalJim]

I'm in the Nooksack almost every day & I wouldn't recommend burning 23 pts in the Nooksack because the Indians are killing all the big Bulls.

[willapawapiti]

I had 25 points last year putting in for the Blues.  Had my buddies lined up for spotting and packing! In my mind, all I had left to do was find a spot for the wall tent!  Guess what?  Bubble popped, zero, zip, nadda - I whined and cried for days    I got over it (barely).  Just the way it goes!!  No slam dunks even with a pile of points.  Gonna throw them at Blues again this year!!

[Bob33]

okey. so what ive seen on this thred for points. i will have 24 points this year when i put in. i drew mud flow cow tag last year. so do i still have 24 points for qulity hunt.and if i drew a tag for that .do i still have 24 points for a bull tag.

What category was the Mud Flow permit in?  Whichever category is was, the points were reset to zero so you will have one point this year in that category if you apply in that category.  The other categories are unchanged.

[unc32]

Long time lurker, first time poster. I'll apologize in advance if this is redundantly covered in another topic. As I haven't seen it mentioned in this thread I wanted to point out that WDFW compiles harvest reports each year and provides a summary of their findings online. The report for 2010 has not yet been completed, but the 2009 report is available here:

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html

Previous years are available as well. From the summary level you'll note that during the 2009 harvest year there was an elk application with 22 points which was not drawn. Likewise for 4 applications with 21 points. If you're curious, below each species summary is a link to a PDF with a complete results breakdown. The data covers all hunts and summarizes entries at all points levels from first-year hunter to frustrated veteran. Quite a bit of data to sift through, but very interesting nonetheless. I haven't done so, but you should be able to use this additional data to find out where the applicants with 21 and 22 points applied and weren't drawn.

Based on the summary information you should be able to accurately determine the total number of "cards in the barrel" by species and figure the appropriate success rates. To be even more precise, with a bit more number extracting/crunching you should be able to boil this down by actual hunt. While past results will never be an accurate predictor of future results, this might give you some kind of an idea as to success rates for someone with 23 points. Hope this helps.

[Skyvalhunter]

Good point.

[Bob33]

Here are actual draw results for Hunt #2005, Dayton A in 2009:

This data indicates there would have been 49,206 names in the hat.  Someone with 23 points would have 529 names in the hat.  For each of the 21 permits drawn, that individual would have approximately a 1% chance of being drawn.

[SkookumHntr]

-That graph shows exactly how much of a joke the washington points system is. 

[Fetch em up]

Margret or the Toutle, there are masher bulls everywhere in there. I got guys that tell me about all the 350 class bulls they see in there all the time 

I hunted in Margaret 2 years in a row- 2007, and 2008, and there MIGHT be 1 or 2 350 bulls in there.  For the most part, a 6x6 is a trophy there, and the biggest I saw wouldn't have broke 300!  Go to the BLUES!!!