The truth about our draw odds

[Todd_ID]

With the release of the special permit drawing results from last year I made the mistake of calculating my odds of drawing a tag and then also forecast it forward.  The surprising result is that even though the number of points that we have each year goes up, our actual odds of drawing a tag go down each year.  The assumptions about the next year forecast that I had to make were: 1. those not drawn last year will apply again; 2. A few new people will start applying (kids applying for the first time) at the same rate as new applicants last year; 3. The successfully drawn applicants were selected based on their probability of drawing, and will start out with 1 point next year.

Here's the math from the Dayton Rifle Quality Elk Tag: 30 permits with 1577 applicants.
2010
Points, Applicants, % Chance of Drawing
18, 1, 21.1
17, 3, 18.8
15, 17, 14.6
14, 19, 12.8
13, 18, 11.0
12, 21, 9.4
11, 33, 7.9
10, 32, 6.5
9, 44, 5.2
8, 47, 4.1
7, 85, 3.2
6, 115, 2.3
5, 121, 1.6
4, 174, 1.0
3, 194, 0.5
2, 292, 0.2
1, 342, 0.07

2011 Drawing Projected
Points, Applicants, % Chance of Drawing
18, 2, 17.6
16, 12, 13.9
15, 14, 12.2
14, 13, 10.6
13, 16, 9.2
12, 29, 7.8
11, 32, 6.6
10, 43, 5.4
9, 45, 4.4
8, 84, 3.4
7, 115, 2.6
6, 121, 1.9
5, 174, 1.3
4, 194, 0.8
3, 292, 0.4
2, 342, 0.2
1, 340, 0.05

So an applicant with 12 points in last years drawing had a 9.4% chance of drawing the tag; this year that applicant will have 13 points and will have a 9.2% chance.
 

[6x6in6]

Pretty close, but you didn't factor in the 2nd choice applicants.
That brings the total applicants in Dayton to 1874 in 2010 for total applications of 56,562.

The 18 point person had a 1:5.8 chance in 2010.
The 12 point people had a 1:13 chance.

Yeah, the truth hurts........ 
30 tags for 56,000+ apps in the barrel in '10.

And the hardest elk tag of 'em all to pull?
Yup, it's the Colockum rifle rut tag, where there is no elk. 
The 18 point holder there in 2010 had a whopping 1:134 chance of being the winner.
Whoever it was that pulled that tag last year with 10 points should have bought a Mega Lotto ticket since they did that with a 1:434 chance.

[bucklucky]

You cant figure odds unless you know how many people have certain amounts of points. Come on guys, just apply and hope to get lucky, the more points you have the better chance you have of drawing.

[6x6in6]

You cant figure odds unless you know how many people have certain amounts of points. Come on guys, just apply and hope to get lucky, the more points you have the better chance you have of drawing.

The data for points and the draw from last year is available.  It shows all the detail of who had how many points and for each draw in all categories.  The 2011 stuff he posted is just a guess.
But the rest of what you said is absolutely correct.

[bucklucky]

So it sows how many points each individual applicant had ? Where is this .

[Todd_ID]

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2010/2010category_points_qualityelk.pdf

That's the link to where the points were used by how many people.  I think the info counts a 1st choice or a 2nd choice application as the same, so it shouldn't throw the numbers off; meaning that the 2nd choice apps are accounted for in the math.

My main point is that our odds of drawing a tag each year go down even though our points are going up.

[6x6in6]

Todd ID just gave you the Quality Elk link.

Here's the link for everything.
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2010/category_points.php
Just click on the PDF below each category and you got it all the data.

[bucklucky]

Nice, I didnt know they had that. Just put in and cross your fingers, its like winning the lotto!

[NRA4LIFE]

I have ceased looking at any of this and have stopped any and all odds calculations.  The answers are too depressing.  Whether anyone likes it or not, most of us will never draw an OIL tag or deer or elk rut tag.  Money-wise you'd be much better off to stop applying and even hunting in this state and go to Colorado or Montana.

[6x6in6]

Nice, I didnt know they had that. Just put in and cross your fingers, its like winning the lotto!

I think it's worse than the lotto. 

[bucklucky]

Nice, I didnt know they had that. Just put in and cross your fingers, its like winning the lotto!

I think it's worse than the lotto. 

I won the elk lotto once  Its nice to get lucky I guess.

[6x6in6]

I think a lot of people would be surprised as to what is the top 3 most likely to draw a Quality elk tag are.
But I ain't talking about it, until after the 18th out of respect for those who know this.
It's the lurkers, ya know.....

[bucklucky]

I think a lot of people would be surprised as to what is the top 3 most likely to draw a Quality elk tag are.
But I ain't talking about it, until after the 18th out of respect for those who know this.
It's the lurkers, ya know.....

You can PM me what you know 

[cmiller85]

I think the info counts a 1st choice or a 2nd choice application as the same, so it shouldn't throw the numbers off

How many people actually draw on a 2nd choice? You would have to remove all 2nd choice applications in order to get your approximate actual odds. I don't see how there is any way that a 2nd choice applicant has the same exact odds as a 1st choice applicant, therefore your odds would seem actually worse than they are.

Right? 

[6x6in6]

I think the info counts a 1st choice or a 2nd choice application as the same, so it shouldn't throw the numbers off

How many people actually draw on a 2nd choice? You would have to remove all 2nd choice applications in order to get your approximate actual odds. I don't see how there is any way that a 2nd choice applicant has the same exact odds as a 1st choice applicant, therefore your odds would seem actually worse than they are.

Right? 

1st or 2nd choice winners are on the above links.
Far right column is combined 1st and 2nd choice winners.
3rd column from right is just the 1st choice winners.