I erred when I was researching the BP's for Oregon, they have two stages in their plan, the first stage calls for 4bp's but the 2nd stage calls for 7 bp's. I apologize for this mistake and will recalculate the data as soon as I get a chance. That will change the data a little, but that is still far less than Washington's 15bp's. The oregon plan is far from perfect, they have the three years built into their plan too.
From the Oregon Wolf Plan page 26:
http://www.dfw.state.or.us/Wolves/docs/2010_wcmp_wolf_conservation.pdfB. Management Phases and Population ObjectivesObjectivesSet separate population objectives for two regions of the state: east and west of a line defined by U.S. Highway 97, U.S. Highway 20, and U.S. Highway 395 (see Figure 1: Divide Between East and West Wolf Management Areas).
Set a conservation population objective for eastern Oregon of four breeding pairs of wolves present for three consecutive years.
Set a management population objective for eastern Oregon of seven breeding pairs of wolves present for three consecutive years.
Protect wolves entering western Oregon, following delisting, under a management regime that replicates Oregon ESA protections.
Set a conservation population objective for western Oregon of four breeding pairs of wolves present for three consecutive years.
Set a management population objective for western Oregon of seven breeding pairs of wolves present for three consecutive years.
StrategiesThe rulemaking process to consider delisting will be initiated when the conservation population objective for eastern Oregon is
met.
Three management phases (Phase I, Phase II and Phase III) will be delineated to enable the population objectives to be met.
Wolf population status will be expressed as the number of breeding pairs during Phases I and II until the management population objective is achieved in either region. The federal recovery definition for breeding pairs will be used. A breeding pair is an adult male and adult female with at least two pups surviving to the end of December.21
21 USFWS 1994.
When the management population objective is achieved in a region (Phase III), wolf population monitoring in that region will transition to counting the number of wolf packs present in the state. A pack is defined as four or more wolves traveling together in winter.
Management PhasesPhase I management activities will be directed toward achieving the conservation
population objective of four breeding pairs of wolves present in eastern Oregon for three consecutive years. During this phase, wolves will continue to be listed under the Oregon ESA. Once the conservation population objective is achieved, the process to consider delisting will be initiated.
A breeding pair of wolves is defined as an adult male and an adult female with at least two pups surviving to the end of December. The number of wolves associated with a breeding pair can vary from six-14 wolves (USFWS 2002, 2003). In Idaho, the number of wolf packs represented by a breeding pair varied between 1.5 - 1.63 packs per breeding pair during the period 2002-2004. The average pack size was reported to be 6.4 - 7.8 wolves per pack. Idaho data applied to Oregon wolf population objectives suggests the following: four breeding pairs equates to 6 - 6.5 packs. This number of packs would be equivalent to 38.4 - 50.7 wolves. Seven breeding pairs equates to 10.5 - 11.4 packs. This number of packs would be equivalent to 67.2 - 89 wolves.
Under the Oregon ESA, either the state may on its own initiate the process to consider delisting, or any entity or person may petition the Commission to consider it. Considering delisting requires a public rulemaking process before the Commission, complete with full public notice, public hearing, and opportunity to submit comments. The law requires the Commission to base any delisting decision on scientific criteria related to the species’ biological status in Oregon and to use documented and verifiable scientific information.
If at the end of the process the Commission decides that delisting is justified, the Commission will specify where the conservation population objectives have and have not been met. After delisting and removal of Oregon ESA protections, if western Oregon has not met the conservation population objective, the Commission will continue to manage wolves in that area under a management regime that replicates Oregon ESA protections for individual wolves. Specifically, such a management regime generally will prohibit take of wolves, except as authorized by the Commission for damage and human safety. That management regime will continue until the Commission determines that western Oregon has achieved the conservation population objective, or until this Plan is amended through a public rulemaking process. The management regime for western Oregon is based upon the Commission’s statutory authority to regulate the take of wildlife. Even when a species is reclassified as a game mammal, the Commission retains the authority to regulate (and, where appropriate, prohibit) take of that species as necessary.
Phase II management activities will be directed toward achieving the management population
objective of seven breeding pairs of wolves present in eastern Oregon for three consecutive years. During this phase, the wolf no longer will be listed. This phase provides a buffer whereby management actions would be initiated to prevent an unexpected decline in the wolf population that could necessitate relisting under the Oregon ESA.
Phase III management activities will be directed toward ensuring the wolf population does not decline below Phase II levels and that wolves do not climb to unmanageable levels that cause conflicts with other land uses. This phase provides for maintenance of wolf numbers. Setting a maximum population level for wolves in Oregon during this initial wolf planning effort may be premature. The Phase III management level is not intended as a population cap. As wolves become established in the state, wolf managers will be collecting data on wolf movements, pack home ranges, and other population parameters.
This information, coupled with data regarding wolf conflicts, could be used to set maximum population levels in the future, depending on the circumstances at the time. A new planning effort based on wolf information specific to Oregon could be undertaken at that time.
Conservation Population ObjectiveThe conservation population objective for Oregon is defined as four breeding pairs of wolves present for three consecutive years in eastern Oregon.
This population objective represents a sufficient number of wolves to ensure the natural reproductive potential of the wolf population is not in danger of failure. This number also represents the point at which the Plan recommends initiating the process to consider delisting. In order to ensure four breeding pairs for three consecutive years, additional wolves would need to be present to replace natural losses of breeding adults. ODFW will use the federal definition of a wolf breeding pair because it provides a higher level of certainty in assessing the population status and documenting successful reproduction.
This conservation population objective is based on the prediction that, if the protections of the Oregon ESA are withdrawn when four breeding pairs have been present for three consecutive years in eastern Oregon, a naturally self-sustaining population of wolves would continue to exist in Oregon. This will support the necessary findings on the delisting criteria, justifying a Commission decision to delist the species.
Management Population ObjectiveOnce the conservation population objective is met, management will be directed toward achieving the management population objective of seven breeding pairs present for three consecutive years. The management population objective is intended to ensure maintenance of the wolf population. Achieving this objective will provide a high level of assurance that the wolf population will not decline. Once this population objective has been achieved, further population goals (higher or lower) will be defined through ODFW’s normal rule-making process based on available data and public input.
The status of wolves in Oregon will be expressed as the number of breeding pairs until the management population objective is met. After the management population objective is met, monitoring methods will transition to enumerating wolf packs rather than breeding pairs to reduce monitoring costs.
General Discussion of Wolf Population ObjectivesOne of the main challenges for wolf planners in Oregon has been estimating the number and distribution of wolves sufficient
to achieve conservation of wolves in Oregon and satisfy state delisting criteria, while protecting the social and economic interests of all Oregonians. Setting population goals too high could foster unrealistic expectations and result in social and biological conflict, and uncertainty regarding the capacity of Oregon to support wolves. Drafters of this Plan relied on information from other state Plans and the scientific literature to develop wolf population objectives.
Uncertainties surrounding the eventual location of dispersing wolves were considered during development of the Plan. One concern was that considerable time could pass before wolves would naturally disperse to western Oregon. In the meantime, wolves would be located primarily in eastern Oregon where human tolerance could be affected as the wolf population increased.
The decision to divide the state into two regions (eastern and western Oregon) with separate but equal population objectives provides the flexibility needed to manage increasing wolf numbers in eastern Oregon while encouraging conservation in western Oregon. The statewide process to consider delisting could be initiated when four breeding pairs of wolves are present for three consecutive years in eastern Oregon. This approach ensures connectivity to the large meta-population of wolves in Idaho, an important factor in achieving conservation of wolves in Oregon.
Because secure habitat is limited in Oregon, biologists predict that fewer wolves will occupy Oregon than are found in similar but much more abundant habitat in Idaho. The federal recovery goal for the Idaho wolf population was 10 breeding pairs in what has been described as the best remaining wolf habitat in the lower 48 states. Oregon, on the other hand, was not selected as a recovery state primarily due to lack of large blocks of contiguous public land habitat.22
Research published in 2003 suggested that the smallest viable wolf populations might be two to three adjacent packs with four wolves each, located 40-60 kilometers apart (Fuller et al. 2003). Each pack might cover 117 square kilometers if the ungulate density averaged eight deer per square kilometer. The authors also wrote that such small populations could persist anywhere if the prey density was at average population levels and productivity, and where wolf production exceeded mortality.Several notable examples of small wolf populations can be found in the scientific literature. The Isle Royale wolf population began from a single pair of wolves in about 1949. The population has fluctuated between 12-90 individuals.23 This population has persisted for more than 50 years despite being isolated on an island and apparently losing 50 percent of their original genetic diversity. Remnant wolf populations in Europe (i.e., Italy, Spain and Portugal) numbering fewer than 100-200 wolves persisted for decades and have since expanded their numbers and range, and avoided extinction (USFWS 1994).
Because of the proximity of northeastern Oregon to Idaho packs, dispersing wolves initially occupied areas in northeastern Oregon (see Figure 4: Wilderness and Roadless Land in Eastern Oregon and Central Idaho). Wolf breeding pairs in these areas could be considered more secure and stable because of their proximity and connectivity to the Idaho population of wolves.
However, other competing factors such as declining ungulate populations, competing carnivore populations and livestock production in those areas will need to be considered. Wolf movement and dispersal between the two populations would allow gene flow between the populations. The large source population of wolves in Idaho will provide a continuing source of dispersing wolves in Oregon. Eventually, the two populations could function as one large population, with the Oregon segment representing a wolf range expansion in North America. Oregon’s close proximity to a population that numbers more than 840 wolves provides certainty that dispersing wolves will continue to enter Oregon at an unknown rate. Over time, a better knowledge of the dispersal and immigration rates may emerge. Fluctuations in the wolf population in Oregon may be minimized to some extent by the presence of dispersing Idaho wolves. State law does not allow the presence of healthy populations of wolves in adjacent states to satisfy delisting criteria, regardless of their importance to wolves located within the state. The number of breeding pairs and their distribution within Oregon must be sufficient to stand alone in determining whether the delisting criteria are met. However, researchers have noted that the establishment of new populations and maintenance of populations that are heavily controlled or harvested rely extensively on a source population of wolves (Fuller et al. 2003).
