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Author Topic: So many points…  (Read 4957 times)

Offline D-Rock425

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Re: So many points…
« Reply #30 on: June 17, 2022, 01:13:59 PM »
I think a good prospective is Colockum September quality rifle permit

2022 points 29 unknown draw odds.
2021 points 28 .33% odds
2020 points 27 .38%
2019 points 26 .42%
2018 points 25 points only
2017 points 24 .48%

Couple things we can learn. 1) this permit is beyond oil, like a lot of our big 3 (moose, sheep, goat). 2) with max points your odds are still going down every year. 3) when you take points your not gaining anything, odds are so bad you should submit and figure it out if you get lucky enough to draw.


How do you know your odds?
Is it possible to know after the fact how many points everyone had that applied for a given unit?
he could be using a page like hunt that lists odds.

Offline X-Force

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Re: So many points…
« Reply #31 on: June 17, 2022, 01:15:26 PM »
Those odds are from a company that produces odds.
People get offended at nothing at all. So, speak your mind and be unapologetic.

Offline X-Force

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Re: So many points…
« Reply #32 on: June 17, 2022, 01:26:18 PM »
D-Rock
Lincoln Peak

15 points in 2022 unknown odds
2021 14 points .19%
2020 13 points .20%
2019 12 points .18%
2018 11 points .20%
2017 10 points .17%

From 2017 with 100 points to 2022 with 225 points your odds are virtually the same.
People get offended at nothing at all. So, speak your mind and be unapologetic.

Offline kentrek

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Re: So many points…
« Reply #33 on: June 17, 2022, 02:08:59 PM »
The odds of someone with 18 points, of drawing a tag over the next few years will be much greater then someone with 1 point over the same amount of years...when looking at indual year odds it's hard to see much of a difference but when you stretch those odds out over lets say 5 years things look alil better

Here's an example for someone with 20 points

5% odds with 20
6% odds with 21
7% odds with 22
8% odds with 23

Over that 4 year stretch that point holder could reasonably expect a 26% chance of drawing....thats still 73% chance of not drawing !!




Are these numbers really accurate when you use all the numbers to calculate? I mean if there's 1 permit and 100 people apply, you have a 1% chance of drawing, but that's thrown out the window when one of these people has 18 points and another has 3 and another has 10 and so on. Are you using everyone's points and number of times they're in the pool and all the things? Because I don't think there is really a truly accurate way of calculating draw odds when all the variables are accurately portrayed.

Sorry there was a few questions

There is no concrete way of prediction but you can have projected odds...just like in the stock market, but obviously alot of people project wrong there too...

Back when I was geeked on Washington I'd attempt to graph the trends in each unit...served zero purpose in the end but highlighted how the demand of each unit can rise and fall


Offline X-Force

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Re: So many points…
« Reply #34 on: June 17, 2022, 02:20:07 PM »
Second Deer Chilliwist

I drew with 9 points 3rd option.

2022 9 points unknown odds
2021 8 points 18%
2020 7 points 20%
2019 6 points 21%
2018 5 points 22%
2017 4 points 27%

Looks like a substantial decrease in odds from 2017-2021… I think they dropped the number of permits this year too.
People get offended at nothing at all. So, speak your mind and be unapologetic.

Offline jackelope

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Re: So many points…
« Reply #35 on: June 17, 2022, 02:52:20 PM »
Second Deer Chilliwist

I drew with 9 points 3rd option.

2022 9 points unknown odds
2021 8 points 18%
2020 7 points 20%
2019 6 points 21%
2018 5 points 22%
2017 4 points 27%

Looks like a substantial decrease in odds from 2017-2021… I think they dropped the number of permits this year too.

I get that you're putting these numbers out there. My question is how you're coming up with them.
I'm pretty sure GoHunt or the like don't publish draw odds on 2nd doe tags here.
:fire.:

" In today's instant gratification society, more and more pressure revolves around success and the measurement of one's prowess as a hunter by inches on a score chart or field photos produced on social media. Don't fall into the trap. Hunting is-and always will be- about the hunt, the adventure, the views, and time spent with close friends and family. " Ryan Hatfield

My posts, opinions and statements do not represent those of this forum

Offline Pathfinder101

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Re: So many points…
« Reply #36 on: June 17, 2022, 02:57:09 PM »
22 Points for Quality Elk, 18 for Quality Deer.  Never drawn a quality tag in WA.
... maybe next year.... :dunno:
Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes.  That way, when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes.

Offline jackelope

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Re: So many points…
« Reply #37 on: June 17, 2022, 04:57:01 PM »
Second Deer Chilliwist

I drew with 9 points 3rd option.

2022 9 points unknown odds
2021 8 points 18%
2020 7 points 20%
2019 6 points 21%
2018 5 points 22%
2017 4 points 27%

Looks like a substantial decrease in odds from 2017-2021… I think they dropped the number of permits this year too.

I get that you're putting these numbers out there. My question is how you're coming up with them.
I'm pretty sure GoHunt or the like don't publish draw odds on 2nd doe tags here.

I'm wrong. They do publish those numbers. Wow. Who knew...
:fire.:

" In today's instant gratification society, more and more pressure revolves around success and the measurement of one's prowess as a hunter by inches on a score chart or field photos produced on social media. Don't fall into the trap. Hunting is-and always will be- about the hunt, the adventure, the views, and time spent with close friends and family. " Ryan Hatfield

My posts, opinions and statements do not represent those of this forum

Offline D-Rock425

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Re: So many points…
« Reply #38 on: June 17, 2022, 05:39:43 PM »
D-Rock
Lincoln Peak

15 points in 2022 unknown odds
2021 14 points .19%
2020 13 points .20%
2019 12 points .18%
2018 11 points .20%
2017 10 points .17%

From 2017 with 100 points to 2022 with 225 points your odds are virtually the same.

Offline Stein

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Re: So many points…
« Reply #39 on: June 17, 2022, 07:58:54 PM »
Yeah, if you put in for all five of those years you would have a 1% chance in total.  In other words, it would only take 250 years to have a 50/50 chance of drawing it in your lifetime, assuming you live as long as Yoda.   :chuckle:  That assumes the allocated tags don't go down and more people don't enter the draw between now and then, so temper your expectations by a few years to keep it real.

Offline Romulus

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Re: So many points…
« Reply #40 on: June 18, 2022, 08:45:04 AM »
Seems like we have this discussion every year but many people still dont get it.........Wouldnt matter what point system we had there are not enough tags for all the interested people to draw when everyone can be in for everything and no one sacrifices the opportunity to draw.  Saw this coming a long time ago when all the cow hunters were bitching they did not get to hunt big bulls. At that time it was pretty easy for the meat hunters to draw tags as the guys who wanted to hunt bulls or have a chance at a trophy did not put in for cow tags.......What happened? now guys are bitching they dont draw their cow tag and why cant they draw a bull tag with 15 points?  Because they are all in the draw and most are picking the better units....and now since they are already paying most of the fees guys who would not have considered hunting cows are in those draws....So now the state made a million categories and makes some small revenue off each app for each category but now the points are mostly worthless.........Kind of like your dollar today after flooding the economy with free money.....If the state gave you the chance to take all of your points and put them into one category would you do it?  That would change things drastically for a few years but people who truly valued a certain tag would have a much better chance...Not likely to get better any time soon unless people would be willing to sacrifice opportunity to hunt each year for better quality hunts........Otherwise roll the dice and look at the average point total taken to draw the tag and think you are due........but your not because the point total used for that is just based on the 5 people who drew....not the 400 who did not.

Offline dilleytech

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Re: So many points…
« Reply #41 on: June 18, 2022, 11:17:59 AM »
Seems like we have this discussion every year but many people still dont get it.........Wouldnt matter what point system we had there are not enough tags for all the interested people to draw when everyone can be in for everything and no one sacrifices the opportunity to draw.  Saw this coming a long time ago when all the cow hunters were bitching they did not get to hunt big bulls. At that time it was pretty easy for the meat hunters to draw tags as the guys who wanted to hunt bulls or have a chance at a trophy did not put in for cow tags.......What happened? now guys are bitching they dont draw their cow tag and why cant they draw a bull tag with 15 points?  Because they are all in the draw and most are picking the better units....and now since they are already paying most of the fees guys who would not have considered hunting cows are in those draws....So now the state made a million categories and makes some small revenue off each app for each category but now the points are mostly worthless.........Kind of like your dollar today after flooding the economy with free money.....If the state gave you the chance to take all of your points and put them into one category would you do it?  That would change things drastically for a few years but people who truly valued a certain tag would have a much better chance...Not likely to get better any time soon unless people would be willing to sacrifice opportunity to hunt each year for better quality hunts........Otherwise roll the dice and look at the average point total taken to draw the tag and think you are due........but your not because the point total used for that is just based on the 5 people who drew....not the 400 who did not.

I would take that even a little further. Not only can you not put in for cow AND bull tags but one species, one unit. You can put in for bull moose huckleberry or quality elk little naches or cow elk And that’s it but just one tag. How would that work? Personally having a higher chance at one good tag a year sounds a lot better then a 1% chance on a dozen tags every year. And that one draw can cost 50$ or whatever the state wants to still make some money.

Sounds good to me. Pick what interested you the most and put in. 

 


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