Electric trucks ? No thank you

[30.06]

Tesla Robots with Thompson SMG vs. Tesla cyber truck

*Faked with CGI

They will sell better on the Wet Side, I'm thinking.

[logola512c]

Tesla Robots with Thompson SMG vs. Tesla cyber truck

*Faked with CGI

They will sell better on the Wet Side, I'm thinking.

There's a real video of Joe Rogan shooting an arrow at the cyber truck, and it basically bounced off and barely left a scratch.  Of course, bullets (of many calibers) and arrows might perform differently...and hopefully nobody is shooting my truck regardless.  I'd be curious how the stainless steel panels fare grinding against concrete columns in parking garages, which is what happens to most of my vehicles when the wife drives them...    I'd take a cyber truck if I could get one (with comparable tires) at a price less than a Tacoma off-road, but that's not where the price is lining up...

[Sandberm]

The big problem is we look at it in terms of isolation.  It's not EV or not, it's EV or oil for the base form of energy for transportation.  So to talk about lithium mining without a similar discussion and comparison to the human rights of entire countries, say Saudi Arabia, say Iran, say Russia is not intellectually honest.

There are people pushing EV for the money.  There have been people pushing oil for money for over 200 years.  Nothing changes in business and politics.

What source of energy would most benefit our country?  I don't think you can argue for oil.  It's a global commodity price controlled by people that hate us.  Technology, efficiency, performance, whatever doesn't even matter, you can't ultimately win in that system with those rules.

Once we are honest about this, it's more of a question of HOW TO MAKE THE TRANSITION HAPPEN and there is plenty of space there to argue.

So you think its the logical next step to have us all driving EV's and its not a matter of if but when?

I was watching Elons interview with Lex today and he talked of needing to TRIPLE our electricity output. He talked batteries will be a key ingredient.

 

[jstone]

They push push no matter if it works or not.!!! Just a way to get richer. NOT going to help the environment. Just going to ruin another country to make ours look better. Smoke screen

[Stein]

The big problem is we look at it in terms of isolation.  It's not EV or not, it's EV or oil for the base form of energy for transportation.  So to talk about lithium mining without a similar discussion and comparison to the human rights of entire countries, say Saudi Arabia, say Iran, say Russia is not intellectually honest.

There are people pushing EV for the money.  There have been people pushing oil for money for over 200 years.  Nothing changes in business and politics.

What source of energy would most benefit our country?  I don't think you can argue for oil.  It's a global commodity price controlled by people that hate us.  Technology, efficiency, performance, whatever doesn't even matter, you can't ultimately win in that system with those rules.

Once we are honest about this, it's more of a question of HOW TO MAKE THE TRANSITION HAPPEN and there is plenty of space there to argue.

So you think its the logical next step to have us all driving EV's and its not a matter of if but when?

I was watching Elons interview with Lex today and he talked of needing to TRIPLE our electricity output. He talked batteries will be a key ingredient.

Yeah, I think it's inevitable.  After buying one I am even more convinced.  Charging is a very complex thing, I charge at 7 kw at home, 3 kw at the grocery store and 250 kw at a supercharger.  Some charge at 1 kw.  Very different things.  90% of the time I charge at night when there is a surplus of electricity and it's the same load as an air conditioner.  Everyone is panicking, but when you think about it, look at how many new homes are being built and nobody says Hey, we can't build all these homes because they all use a bunch of electricity!  Utilities make more, they are motivated to because they make more money.  Electricity is easy and cheap to produce if we get out of our own way.

Gas vehicles will be around a long, long time, but EVs will gobble up new production for sure.  In the US, EV sales were up something like 56% and we still have a couple weeks in the year.  Model Y is already the most popular new passenger vehicle globally.  When the legacy manufacturers figure out how to design and produce good EVs they will sell a bunch as well. 

Cyber truck is going to have 470 miles with the extended pack, so that cracks the door open.  Next, someone will build a traditional truck that works with 500 mile range and it's game on.  Cars are already there today, plenty of range for just about everything.

There is certainly an argument as to how hard or if Uncle Sam should push, but guys like me are starting to pick them up and after owning one, I can't imagine buying a gas car again.  In my opinion, we have already hit escape velocity and there is no going back.

[bearpaw]

https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck

Cybertruck prices and specs have been released. 3 different models at $60k, $80k and $100k

There are some pretty impressive features, this caught my eye:

ELECTRONICALLY ADAPTIVE AIR SUSPENSION THAT OFFERS 12” OF TRAVEL AND 17” OF CLEARANCE.

You can count on Elon for massive innovation. I think it's just a matter of time, before electric vehicles are suitable for more and more people. I know I don't buy any hand tools anymore that have gas or corded motors, I only buy battery powered.

[Alchase]

Some news snippits:

Ford cuts Lightening Production by 50% for 2024.

"The electric truck isn’t alone in its struggles at Ford, with the automaker also reducing some production capacity tied to its Mustang Mach-E SUV back in November. The Blue Oval also recently announced that it would be delaying some $12 billion in spending it had earmarked for EVs, citing the costs incurred during the UAW strike. Ford additionally announced that work on one of its battery plants planned for Kentucky is stalled for the time being. "

https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a46104757/ford-reportedly-cutting-f-150-lightning-production-in-half/

"Ford lost an estimated $36,000 on each of the 36,000 electric vehicles it delivered to dealers in the quarter - even more than its estimated $32,350 loss per EV in the second quarter.Oct 27, 2023
During Ford's second-quarter earnings briefing in July, Chief Executive Officer Jim Farley said the company would slow the ramp-up of money-losing EVs, shifting investment to Ford's commercial vehicle unit and citing plans to quadruple sales of gas-electric hybrids over the next five years."

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-withdraws-2023-forecast-warns-ev-results-2023-10-26/

General Motors said on Tuesday it still plans to end production of the Chevrolet Bolt EV at the end of 2023. GM,
GM Abandons Goal Of Building 400,000 EVs In North America By Mid-2024
GM has announced that it is pulling back on its ambitions to build 400,000 EV units in North America by the mid-2024 calendar-year timeframe. However, The General says it is still on track to hits its goal of reaching an annual EV production capacity of 1 million EVs in North America by the end of 2025. General Motors has also detailed delays in retooling the GM Lake Orion plant in Michigan for production of the Chevy Silverado EV and GMC Sierra EV all-electric pickup trucks.

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2023/10/gm-abandons-goal-of-building-400000-evs-in-north-america-by-mid-2024/

[Stein]

I think you have to look at Ford's announcement with a nuanced eye.  In particular, what went wrong?

Do people not want electric vehicles in general?
Do people not want electric trucks?
Do people not want Ford's electric truck?
Do people want all of the above, but Ford's predictions were unrealistic?

I'm sitting at the bottom two.

The Lightening has some big issues that would prevent me from buying one.

1.   Most critical, Ford currently uses CCS/J1772 charging.  It works well at home, but DC fast charging is hot garbage.  Ford built vehicles assuming partners would install a great charging system nationwide that would allow it's customers to charge and go anywhere (similar to gas).  That flat out didn't happen.  Imagine a world where you went to Chevron to get gas and had to use Chevron's app to pay.  You get there, all the pumps are broken except one and it dispenses 4 gallons an hour.  So, you drive over to Shell and have to download their app to pay.  Several of their pumps are offline, so you have to call customer service and have them reset.  They come back up but pump slow like the Chevron ones.  Drive to Costco, and again download their app and finally get a pump to work.  That's the reality for non-Tesla EVs in the US.  The only saving grace is you can charge at home and only need fast chargers for longer road trips.

Tesla saw this in advance and designed their own connector and charger and owns and operates Tesla chargers all across the country (2,000 locations and quickly growing).  They all work and you don't need a ton of apps or even a credit card.  Plug in, charge automatically and Tesla bills your card on file.

It's so dire for the others that Ford signed an agreement with Tesla to use their connector and allow Ford vehicles to charge on Tesla chargers.  Ford paid Tesla to allow Ford customers to pay Tesla.

The problem should resolve itself in 1-2 years with Tesla profiting all the way.

2.  It's maximum charge rate is 150 kW.  My Tesla has a battery roughly half the size and can charge up to 250 kW.  Ford's charging is way too slow.  Even when they can get on Tesla Superchargers, they won't be able to fully utilize them.  So, a Ford will pull up to a 250 or 350kW charger and only be able to utilize 150 of that, less than half of the newest chargers.

3.  Ford's app pretty much sucks.  They are not a software company, but need to become one.  Like most new technology, the app is a critical piece of the system. 

4.  Ford (and all legacy manufacturers) are not vertically integrated.  If they want to change something, add a new feature, fix something, whatever, it likely isn't a Ford engineer doing the upgrade, it's Ford negotiating with a supplier and coming up with a new contract and terms.  That's cumbersome and leads to far less innovation.  If they want to upgrade something like preconditioning the cabin at 70 degrees for your departure at 7 am on a cold day, they might have to negotiate with a dozen vendors - the app builder, seat manufacturer (heat), heat pump manufacturer, computer manufacturer......

This prevents Ford from making rapid improvements to their product and pushing those out to existing customers.  I've owned my car for 6 week and have already got probably 5-8 new features.  I wake up, get an e-mail saying Hey, here's a new feature we just installed on your car and here is how to use it.  That's pretty amazing in my book, it's better than the day I bought it.  With Ford, it's pretty much not going to get better than the day you bought it.

5.  They are borrowing parts off other vehicles vs a ground up design.  They were late to the game and needed to put something out, so they had little choice.  The result is something that is sub-optimal as well as more expensive to build.  New production techniques lower cost substantially, meaning Ford can't build a profitable EV using traditional methods.  That can't be overcome by volume.

I'm kind of picking on Ford because they are in the news, but it's the same story at other legacy manufacturers.  Chevy's bolt charges at a staggeringly slow 50 kW max, 5x slower than it should be.

For the Mustang, you have a premium priced vehicle that really doesn't do anything a mid-range priced gas vehicle does other than the drivetrain.  It's more expensive than it's direct competition and not as nice as it's similarly priced counterparts.

Legacy manufacturers have a few years to get their poop in a group or they are going to be a fraction of their current size.

[Humptulips]

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/ev-battery-icbc-writeoff

[jackelope]

Battery costs are ridiculous.

[Happy Gilmore]

Battery costs are ridiculous.

So are 2002 7.3L powerstroke longblocks

[jackelope]

Battery costs are ridiculous.

So are 2002 7.3L powerstroke longblocks

I’ll betcha $67k that a Mach E battery costs more than a 7.3 long block.

I’ll double down on that to say that the dead cost with zero profit is still more than a 7.3 long block.

Ask me how I know.

[Sandberm]

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/ev-battery-icbc-writeoff

Boy, a person better know what the cost of buying a new battery for an EV is before they buy a used EV.

How many miles/years does the manufacturer say that original battery is supposed to last? Is it rated by time or miles?

Hmmm.

[salmosalar]

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/ev-battery-icbc-writeoff

Boy, a person better know what the cost of buying a new battery for an EV is before they buy a used EV.

How many miles/years does the manufacturer say that original battery is supposed to last? Is it rated by time or miles?

Hmmm.

8 years or 100,000 miles is the minimum warrantee.

There is plenty of data out there as to how many fail etc.

For the most part, you really don't need to know the cost of a replacement for a numner of reasons. The most important reason is that hey don't really fail all that often. Here is a very basic article on it from the whacky left wing Cars. com: https://www.cars.com/articles/your-guide-to-ev-batteries-premature-death-range-loss-and-preservation-446126/

I have a particularly short commute. I have considered buying a used EV. The reason being that even with a greatly reduced battery, it would be fine as a commuter for me. Everyone's scenario is different. Also, the market for refurbished batteries is just beginning and free market enterprise has a wonderful way of filling those needs. It seems like battery replacements may well come from refurbished batteries instead of new ones, greatly reducing the costs. I hope you find this helpful.

I know a number of people with EV's now. I know none that would consider going back. That is what I have seen anectodedly.

[jackelope]

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/ev-battery-icbc-writeoff

Boy, a person better know what the cost of buying a new battery for an EV is before they buy a used EV.

How many miles/years does the manufacturer say that original battery is supposed to last? Is it rated by time or miles?

Hmmm.

8 years or 100,000 miles is the minimum warrantee.

There is plenty of data out there as to how many fail etc.

For the most part, you really don't need to know the cost of a replacement for a numner of reasons. The most important reason is that hey don't really fail all that often. Here is a very basic article on it from the whacky left wing Cars. com: https://www.cars.com/articles/your-guide-to-ev-batteries-premature-death-range-loss-and-preservation-446126/

I have a particularly short commute. I have considered buying a used EV. The reason being that even with a greatly reduced battery, it would be fine as a commuter for me. Everyone's scenario is different. Also, the market for refurbished batteries is just beginning and free market enterprise has a wonderful way of filling those needs. It seems like battery replacements may well come from refurbished batteries instead of new ones, greatly reducing the costs. I hope you find this helpful.

I know a number of people with EV's now. I know none that would consider going back. That is what I have seen anectodedly.

While I don’t agree with all the seeming fear people have over EV’s, my shop has replaced at least 5 EV batteries so far in Mach E and Lightning.  The dead nuts zero profit cost of a Mach E battery over half the retail price of the whole car.
We don’t bill them on repair orders because Ford doesn’t charge us for them, but they did on one of the first ones by accident. With our warranty parts markup and the labor, it was a $72k ticket. They eventually removed the charge for the battery so I wasn’t able to take half of the next month off.