Is there an elephant in the room

[Slamadoo]

With this graph I focused on general season spike harvest (modern rifle) in units I was familiar with.

[Tbar]

@ Tbar

I got all this data from the department. It took me a while to find some of it, but that's where I got it.

Thanks! Appreciate it.  I do think some of those numbers are wonky. Feed lot surveys may be a partial explanation.  Either way I appreciate your dive into data and sharing.

[fishngamereaper]

Wasn't 2016 the year of the mass cow permits if I recall.
They issued 3 times as many as usual...well over a thousand cows where killed that year on special permits. Never made sense.
And seems relative to low calf numbers the following year's and limited spike encounters.

[Slamadoo]

Long story short, based in what I found combined with field experience from myself and other hunters i know, I believe that calf recruitment is down due to predators.

There are less spikes for hunters because an increased predator population is eating them as yearlings.

I don't think it's a coincidence that around 2016-2018 all the data shows decreasing calf numbers, fewer spike bulls being harvested, and substantial increases to bear and Cougar harvest (most of which is incidental from deer and elk hunters).

Since 2015 Cougar harvest has never dropped below 200 and has seen 5 of the 6 highest harvest numbers in the last 30 years.

Since 2014 Black Bear harvest has never dropped below 1400 and has seen 4 of the 5 highest harvest numbers in the last 30 years.

Again, mostly from incidental take from fewer hunters.

[Katmai Guy]

Wasn't 2016 the year of the mass cow permits if I recall.
They issued 3 times as many as usual...well over a thousand cows where killed that year on special permits. Never made sense.
And seems relative to low calf numbers the following year's and limited spike encounters.

Also, if you can't get your bull numbers up, the easiest way to get your ratio inline is to reduce the number of cows.

[NOCK NOCK]

I have my own thoughts on all this, and they don't really align with what I'm about to say,    I just always try to look at issues from multiple Perspectives.

Many deer herds are at critical levels, and we complain about WDFW management.
Yakima/Colockum elk herds appear to be doing fairly Ok, and we complain about WDFW management. (Even though they may be doing something we dont like...in trying to maintain a stable population)

Thats all!

If by fairly ok you mean the Yakima herd is the largest its ever been since re-introduction then you are correct

 I don't honestly know much about the Yakima herd other than what I read, hence the fairly ok,....not in the dumps. My point is we gonna beotch no matter what the WDFW does.

[Dan-o]

I have my own thoughts on all this, and they don't really align with what I'm about to say,    I just always try to look at issues from multiple Perspectives.

Many deer herds are at critical levels, and we complain about WDFW management.
Yakima/Colockum elk herds appear to be doing fairly Ok, and we complain about WDFW management. (Even though they may be doing something we dont like...in trying to maintain a stable population)

Thats all!

If by fairly ok you mean the Yakima herd is the largest its ever been since re-introduction then you are correct

 I don't honestly know much about the Yakima herd other than what I read, hence the fairly ok,....not in the dumps. My point is we gonna beotch no matter what the WDFW does.

That's a really good point. Nock.

[dreamingbig]

I have my own thoughts on all this, and they don't really align with what I'm about to say,    I just always try to look at issues from multiple Perspectives.

Many deer herds are at critical levels, and we complain about WDFW management.
Yakima/Colockum elk herds appear to be doing fairly Ok, and we complain about WDFW management. (Even though they may be doing something we dont like...in trying to maintain a stable population)

Thats all!

If by fairly ok you mean the Yakima herd is the largest its ever been since re-introduction then you are correct

 I don't honestly know much about the Yakima herd other than what I read, hence the fairly ok,....not in the dumps. My point is we gonna beotch no matter what the WDFW does.

That's a really good point. Nock.

What is his point?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jackelope]

I have my own thoughts on all this, and they don't really align with what I'm about to say,    I just always try to look at issues from multiple Perspectives.

Many deer herds are at critical levels, and we complain about WDFW management.
Yakima/Colockum elk herds appear to be doing fairly Ok, and we complain about WDFW management. (Even though they may be doing something we dont like...in trying to maintain a stable population)

Thats all!

If by fairly ok you mean the Yakima herd is the largest its ever been since re-introduction then you are correct

 I don't honestly know much about the Yakima herd other than what I read, hence the fairly ok,....not in the dumps. My point is we gonna beotch no matter what the WDFW does.

That's a really good point. Nock.

What is his point?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sounds like his point is that regardless of what the wdfw does or says in this situation, people are going to complain about it.

[Dan-o]

I have my own thoughts on all this, and they don't really align with what I'm about to say,    I just always try to look at issues from multiple Perspectives.

Many deer herds are at critical levels, and we complain about WDFW management.
Yakima/Colockum elk herds appear to be doing fairly Ok, and we complain about WDFW management. (Even though they may be doing something we dont like...in trying to maintain a stable population)

Thats all!

If by fairly ok you mean the Yakima herd is the largest its ever been since re-introduction then you are correct

 I don't honestly know much about the Yakima herd other than what I read, hence the fairly ok,....not in the dumps. My point is we gonna beotch no matter what the WDFW does.

That's a really good point. Nock.

What is his point?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sounds like his point is that regardless of what the wdfw does or says in this situation, people are going to complain about it.

Exactly.

[hughjorgan]

I have my own thoughts on all this, and they don't really align with what I'm about to say,    I just always try to look at issues from multiple Perspectives.

Many deer herds are at critical levels, and we complain about WDFW management.
Yakima/Colockum elk herds appear to be doing fairly Ok, and we complain about WDFW management. (Even though they may be doing something we dont like...in trying to maintain a stable population)

Thats all!

If by fairly ok you mean the Yakima herd is the largest its ever been since re-introduction then you are correct

 I don't honestly know much about the Yakima herd other than what I read, hence the fairly ok,....not in the dumps. My point is we gonna beotch no matter what the WDFW does.

That's a really good point. Nock.

What is his point?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sounds like his point is that regardless of what the wdfw does or says in this situation, people are going to complain about it.

Exactly.

In this case it is warranted. Go look at their data from the status and trends reports they do annually. Their methodology for estimated herd numbers has not been sound. They aren’t surveying from the air in mild years but expect to get accurate data from the few elk that did come down to the feed stations for their bull to cow ratios and calf to cow ratios. They’ve been telling us the herd is doing poorly because of this. They estimated the herd at less than 8000 strong coming off an easy winter and then a few years later they are shocked when they actually do a survey and find the elk herd to be at 11500. It contradicts their data points in a huge way! They claim that 30:100(calf/cow) is stable the herd isn’t growing or declining and is growing if above that number. It is 12-20:100(bull/cow) and just like their calf:cow numbers they have obviously been way off on those numbers as well IMO. The science can’t be correct that we had a record low number of calf:cow but in a few short years the Yakima elk herd was able to grow 4-5k elk. If their calf:cow ratio was so far off then that leads me to believe the same on their low counts of bull. And to note the Yakima herd hasn’t experienced big winter kills do to the feeding stations and half our winters in the last decade have been mild!

[Karl Blanchard]

I have my own thoughts on all this, and they don't really align with what I'm about to say,    I just always try to look at issues from multiple Perspectives.

Many deer herds are at critical levels, and we complain about WDFW management.
Yakima/Colockum elk herds appear to be doing fairly Ok, and we complain about WDFW management. (Even though they may be doing something we dont like...in trying to maintain a stable population)

Thats all!

If by fairly ok you mean the Yakima herd is the largest its ever been since re-introduction then you are correct

 I don't honestly know much about the Yakima herd other than what I read, hence the fairly ok,....not in the dumps. My point is we gonna beotch no matter what the WDFW does.

That's a really good point. Nock.

What is his point?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sounds like his point is that regardless of what the wdfw does or says in this situation, people are going to complain about it.

Exactly.

In this case it is warranted. Go look at their data from the status and trends reports they do annually. Their methodology for estimated herd numbers has not been sound. They aren’t surveying from the air in mild years but expect to get accurate data from the few elk that did come down to the feed stations for their bull to cow ratios and calf to cow ratios. They’ve been telling us the herd is doing poorly because of this. They estimated the herd at less than 8000 strong coming off an easy winter and then a few years later they are shocked when they actually do a survey and find the elk herd to be at 11500. It contradicts their data points in a huge way! They claim that 30:100(calf/cow) is stable the herd isn’t growing or declining and is growing if above that number. It is 12-20:100(bull/cow) and just like their calf:cow numbers they have obviously been way off on those numbers as well IMO. The science can’t be correct that we had a record low number of calf:cow but in a few short years the Yakima elk herd was able to grow 4-5k elk. If their calf:cow ratio was so far off then that leads me to believe the same on their low counts of bull. And to note the Yakima herd hasn’t experienced big winter kills do to the feeding stations and half our winters in the last decade have been mild!

absolutely spot on! I've been shouting for a decade about their lazy and completely unscientific counts.

[jackelope]

Just so I’m clear.  All I was talking about what speaking to the question about what the point was. Not saying it’s right or wrong..

[NOCK NOCK]

My point was obvious, and is clearly shown throughout this, and many other threads. WDFW is damned if they do, and damned if they don't.
There is no such thing as "perfect science", at best it's a guess.

So, do we trust WDFW, the commish ( ... its a joke) lighten up, or the word from hunters, who are all over the board on strategies?


With that being said, I will not share my personal beliefs, doesn't go over well on here some times FWIW

[coachcw]

Have a user group that's unregulated and one that's over regulated that makes great sense too me ! Go to a total draw system and regulate both sides for Christ sake its 2024 not 1800 . as far as bull counts a large portion of bulls never hit the winter grounds and honestly at what percent do the cows not ger bread ? are there cows of breeding age that arnt caring ?