Elk points

[Bob33]

"In Idaho (with no point system) for example, my Dad has put in for a deer unit with 10% draw odds for 10 years. When I put in for this unit next year for the first time, he and I will have identical draw odds because each draw is an independent event."

Next year you will have the same odds of drawing a tag in 2014. The odds of him drawing a tag in the 11 year period are much better than yours.

[kentrek]

even tho they are independent year to year doesn't mean ya cant look at the odds of a few years cumulatively,thats what im saying..i see your point but we are talking about two different odds

 

[bobcat]

    Just like kentrek said, you guys are talking about two totally different things. It should be obvious that if a person applies for a hunt for many years, his odds of eventually drawing that tag are better than if he only applies once.

[idahohuntr]

I agree...two different things being discussed.  I am talking about your annual draw odds, which do not increase or change based on prior failures in a draw.  However, in my Idaho tag example, at the beginning of a period of 10 years there is a 1 - (9/10)^10, or 65%  probability of drawing at least one tag in that 10 years.  However, these numbers are over a 10 year period...meaning that in 10 years there is still a decent chance or a fair number of hunters (35/100) who will not draw a tag in that 10 year period (these are the guys who support point systems  ).  The long-term cumulative outlook is more abstract/theoretical.  Each year, my odds are 10 percent of drawing, irrespective of what happened in prior years. In the 10th year of unsuccessfully drawing I would not call my hunting buddies and tell them "hey, I haven't drawn for 9 years, so my odds are 65% I will draw this year".  In fact, my odds are still 10%....that is why I am more critical of the cumulative odds being reported....they are often interpreted/applied incorrectly. 

odds, probability, bla bla bla, I am glad to see somebody else puts together spreadsheets of draw data Maybe my wife won't think Im so crazy after all!!!

[Bob33]

The old "he is 1 for 20 so he is due for a hit" argument is statistically invalid.

[cwuhunter]

I have killed a bull before and i would like if i draw to shoot an above average bull
not nessecarally a monster just one i would love to hang on the wall I guess i dont understand the point buy thing i thought u could buy a point not put in for any tags and then next year have a new point just like i put in for a tag not sure what you mean buy not being able to hunt if i buy a point 

You can just buy a "ghost point"

for how much? I didnt know WA did this

[seaduckhunter]

I drew Bull tag on the eastside with 7 points and then quality bull with 8 points.  You never know I had  a lot of my hunting buddies pissed off when i drew 2 years in a row and they had more points but it is a random draw.  Sometimes we get lucky I cant draw a quality deer tag in have 14 points

[huntnnw]

the way I look at permit tags is the more I apply for here and outta state the greater the chance I have of going on a qulaity hunt

[kentrek]

I agree...two different things being discussed.  I am talking about your annual draw odds, which do not increase or change based on prior failures in a draw.  However, in my Idaho tag example, at the beginning of a period of 10 years there is a 1 - (9/10)^10, or 65%  probability of drawing at least one tag in that 10 years.  However, these numbers are over a 10 year period...meaning that in 10 years there is still a decent chance or a fair number of hunters (35/100) who will not draw a tag in that 10 year period (these are the guys who support point systems  ).  The long-term cumulative outlook is more abstract/theoretical.  Each year, my odds are 10 percent of drawing, irrespective of what happened in prior years. In the 10th year of unsuccessfully drawing I would not call my hunting buddies and tell them "hey, I haven't drawn for 9 years, so my odds are 65% I will draw this year".  In fact, my odds are still 10%....that is why I am more critical of the cumulative odds being reported....they are often interpreted/applied incorrectly. 

odds, probability, bla bla bla, I am glad to see somebody else puts together spreadsheets of draw data Maybe my wife won't think Im so crazy after all!!!

sweeet we are on the same path 

your not crazy at all...i even have pie charts for the percent categories of weight in my backpack 


how can one be too crazy about trying to experiance more about some of the most life changing experiences one can experience ?? sorry drugs dont touch having a bull,that yove worked 6 years for,come screaming into bow range and get dead fast...if only we could market that "rush" to the gen public 

aim steady friends