Selecting Units for Drawing

[Decker]

I remember seeing a thread a couple years ago that talked about optimizing chances of drawing by putting units in a certain order, either easiest to draw to hardest or visca-versa. Anyone have info about that or a link to the thread?

Thanks!

[MtnMuley]

Huh?  People's whole selection cards gets pulled up in "bingo" style fashion, so I'd recommend listing your most desired unit first and work your way down to least desired of your 4 choices last.   

[Decker]

That's not what I heard, and not how I selected units when I drew last time. 

[MtnMuley]

Well it sounds like you've got it all figured out, so if I were you, I'd just apply the way you did last time.

[Decker]

I don't have it all figured out! I forgot how I applied last time!

I don't know anything and I can prove it!

[MtnMuley]

I find that if I drink 15 beers, I know a lot more.  You might try that.

[piled-up]

First thing they do is throw all my bingo balls in the trash then they draw!

[pd]

Decker, there are a lot of guys here who can explain the strategy better than I can, but to answer you main question: "List the hardest-to-draw units first."

Why is that?  Let's assume we are talking about Spring Bear here (4 GMUs can be chosen as hunt options).  If your application gets selected, then the computer first looks at your Option #1.  Because that is a hard unit to draw (very popular GMU), your chances of getting a tag are fairly low.  If the computer can't fill your first choice, then it goes to your second choice, and so on until it checks all four choices.

It is almost like applying to college: The first choice is a "reach" school (probably can't get in, think of Harvard), and the last choice is a "safe school" (almost anybody can get in).  You don't want to list four choices in the "reach" category, because your chance of getting a tag really fall off.

[bobcat]

Huh?  People's whole selection cards gets pulled up in "bingo" style fashion, so I'd recommend listing your most desired unit first and work your way down to least desired of your 4 choices last.   

I would agree that you should list your choices from most desired to least desired.

But, as pd explained you also should list your choices in order from hardest to draw to easiest to draw.

So, the order of your choices should be based on both. At least that's how I do it. If your choices are all relatively close in odds of drawing, then you only need to worry about putting them in order of your most desired to least desired. But if one is 1 in 150 odds while another is 1 in 10, it makes no sense to put the 1 in 10 choice ahead of the 1 in 150. If you do that, you just wasted one of your choices, as you would have no chance of drawing the 1 in 150 odds permit.

[MtnMuley]

Yes  bobcat. That's true info you wrote. However, looking at it like I do, I pick my first choice on the hunt I really want to draw first, regardless of if it's the easiest or hardest to draw. I realize that generally speaking a lot of the better (more popular) hunts are the harder units to draw, and I find myself a lot of the time listing them first. As far as spring bear goes, I really think a uy applies to where he wants to spend his time hunting rather than the hardest to draw at the top of his four choices. There's an abundance of bears in all the units I know.

[Decker]

Thanks for chiming in guys, I knew it one way or the other, but couldn't remember why.

And it obviously makes sense to incorporate which unit is your favorite, as well as order of probability in selecting the order.

Very helpful. Thank you.

[tonymiller7]

I always apply for the unit I want to hunt in the most.  That way if your name is drawn early you're more likely going to get your first choice, but if it's taken maybe # 2  is available.  For certain tags I only enter 1 choice because I don't want to waste my points on some other unit.

Choice 1:  I would kill to have this tag.
Choice 2:  Gettting this tag would be sweet.
Choice 3:  It would be kinda cool if I get this one.
Choice 4:  Meh