just for the bow guys (trends update)

[kentrek]

here are the odds and trends for some of the most wanted early bull tags

obviously if the trend is steadily less hunters than you can expect better odds for this years draws..if its sporadic than precise odds pretty much mean nothing since its hard to predict if more/less hunter will put in for the unit

hope this helps 

feel free to post up the same type of info for other units & hunts..it would be nice to have one thread with as much info as possible for folks to give their best guess at which tag to draw

[Mudman]

Exactly why I dont play their game.  Systems broken, I would rather buy lottery ticket.

[kentrek]

Exactly why I dont play their game.  Systems broken, I would rather buy lottery ticket.

love it or hate it, it is what it is 

[BOWHUNTER45]

Alot of gamblers in America  Well maybe I should not complain to much ... I did not gamble long to get my quality bull tag but I have not applied since 

[pendoreilleadventures]

kentrek would you be so kind as to share your excel formula? So we can do the odds on the units we want?

[kentrek]

[your points^2/((average points^2)*number of applicants)]*number of tags*100 = % odds

 

[D-Rock425]

So you saying I got a chance

[kentrek]

i need to say that these are actually the exact odds for what happened at last years draw, i was going to work up odds for this year but didn't feel like doing the trends of applicants throughout the years..but this should give you an idea if your thinking of moving up to a higher quality tag

[Dip-Zag]

This is good work. I'd imagine that even if we trended with applicant volume for 5 years odds wouldn't change by 1 percentage point.

[kentrek]

This is good work. I'd imagine that even if we trended with applicant volume for 5 years odds wouldn't change by 1 percentage point.

i was thinking the same but here is the 2012/2013 mud flow results... il check into this further and see if a can get some type of predictable trend

[MLBowhunting]

Wow

[TommyH]

  i dont gamble 

[bucklucky]

So what you are saying is that special permits are terrible odds .... sweet ! I drew once with .06% odds. And another at 1.2% 

[couesbitten]

I would rather buy lottery ticket.

And just like the lottery, you can't win if you don't buy a ticket.

[throttlejocky20]

Having points help but I do believe its the luck of the draw. In 2010 I met a guy that drew a Margret archery bull tag with 2 points. I have drawn cow tags (margret-Toutle) within 2 years of the other. I know a guy that drew a moose tag with 8 points. If you dont put in you wont draw.