Moose Draw Odds - 2012

[PolarBear]

I guess that I will have to look into hunting moose in Idaho.  My wife's relatives have 1,000 acres out of Sand Point that has a bunch of moose on it.

[HUNT]

Idaho has some great moose hunts for sure.   

[shanevg]

LOL, I applied 1-1 as well.  What hunt did you guys apply for?  9-15 - 11/15, 10/1 - 10/15, or 11/1 - 11/15?

[cmiller85]

Makes me appreciate my draw even more.  If a guy is serious about killing a Shiras there is no doubt he should be applying in Idaho every year , draw odds are so much better it's not even funny and it is close.

This is why I don't understand how most people can actually like our current point system. It's not hard to see how the system has absolutely destroyed the drawing odds for OIL tags.

Back in 1998 for instance, 2,139 applicants applied for 13 moose tags for 49 Degrees North A. This is 1 permit for every 164 applicants. After people started to catch on with the, at that time recently implemented, point system the number of applicants jumped substantially, and in 1999 the total number of applicants more than doubled with 5,300 applying for 13 permits; or 1 permit for every 407 applicants.

The number of applicants has steadily increased each year with the exception of 2006 where the number of applicants dipped slightly from 11,190 in 2005 to 10,800 total appliants for 49 Degrees North A. Moose permits were increased to 22, but this was still a worsening of the odds with 1 permit for every 490 applicants.

In 2011, the number of applicants peaked at 16,034 people applying for 22 permits. This is 1 permit for every 728 applicants. The number of applicants reduced in 2012 after WDFW doubled the cost of the permit application fees for OIL tags.

Now for the drawing odds. Looking at numbers Idahohuntr posted, only those with 17 points or more have odds better than they did in 1998; and not even drastically better but a little bit better. Those with 16 points are about the same and those with 15 points or less are worse off than when they started in 1998, so unless you got into the point game within the first 3 years, our system is screwing you. Those just now getting into the game might as well go play the WA lottery. As you can see from Idahohuntr's numbers, 49 Degrees North A applicants with 1 point had about 1 in 40,000 drawing odds.

All things being relatively equal and consistent, our system might actually better odds for those who faithfully apply every year, but things, obviously, did not stay consistent. People began to realize that if they didn't start applying to get thier points they would never draw in the future as their odds were getting worse by not applying. This obviously caused many people who would not have applied to initially to jump into the game and essentially start "Investing" in the possibility of a future hunt. This demand to jump in and begin investing in a future hunt caused the number of applicants to jump by nearly 14,000 in just 13 years while the number of permits issued went up by 9.

Long story short. Idaho knows whats up. Point systems suck. And there is nothing wrong with making people choose only 1 species in applying for a special permit.

[shanevg]

Makes me appreciate my draw even more.  If a guy is serious about killing a Shiras there is no doubt he should be applying in Idaho every year , draw odds are so much better it's not even funny and it is close.

This is why I don't understand how most people can actually like our current point system. It's not hard to see how the system has absolutely destroyed the drawing odds for OIL tags.

Back in 1998 for instance, 2,139 applicants applied for 13 moose tags for 49 Degrees North A. This is 1 permit for every 164 applicants. After people started to catch on with the, at that time recently implemented, point system the number of applicants jumped substantially, and in 1999 the total number of applicants more than doubled with 5,300 applying for 13 permits; or 1 permit for every 407 applicants.

The number of applicants has steadily increased each year with the exception of 2006 where the number of applicants dipped slightly from 11,190 in 2005 to 10,800 total appliants for 49 Degrees North A. Moose permits were increased to 22, but this was still a worsening of the odds with 1 permit for every 490 applicants.

In 2011, the number of applicants peaked at 16,034 people applying for 22 permits. This is 1 permit for every 728 applicants. The number of applicants reduced in 2012 after WDFW doubled the cost of the permit application fees for OIL tags.

Now for the drawing odds. Looking at numbers Idahohuntr posted, only those with 17 points or more have odds better than they did in 1998; and not even drastically better but a little bit better. Those with 16 points are about the same and those with 15 points or less are worse off than when they started in 1998, so unless you got into the point game within the first 3 years, our system is screwing you. Those just now getting into the game might as well go play the WA lottery. As you can see from Idahohuntr's numbers, 49 Degrees North A applicants with 1 point had about 1 in 40,000 drawing odds.

All things being relatively equal and consistent, our system might actually better odds for those who faithfully apply every year, but things, obviously, did not stay consistent. People began to realize that if they didn't start applying to get thier points they would never draw in the future as their odds were getting worse by not applying. This obviously caused many people who would not have applied to initially to jump into the game and essentially start "Investing" in the possibility of a future hunt. This demand to jump in and begin investing in a future hunt caused the number of applicants to jump by nearly 14,000 in just 13 years while the number of permits issued went up by 9.

Long story short. Idaho knows whats up. Point systems suck. And there is nothing wrong with making people choose only 1 species in applying for a special permit.

 

[Ridgerunner]

I saw somewhere in the early 90s our sheep units had only 20 or 30 applicants per tag, now look at things.  I do think it will swing eventually people will stop throwing money at species they won't draw especially now that the oil and quality categories are so expensive.  I mean that's $65 every year for minimal odds of drawing.  That will get old for people.  Then the aging population will also result in a decrease but reality is the odds are always going to be terrible in this state. 

[Ridgerunner]

I would like the department to split the moose seasons like Idaho does it.  That would create four hunts out of each unit, that would spread the applicants put more and help improve the odds perhaps a tiny bit.

[Gringo31]

LOL, I applied 1-1 as well.  What hunt did you guys apply for?

 

9-15 - 11/15

[bobcat]

Well, it's the system we have. Don't like it? Don't apply. I agree using a point system with moose permits doesn't make sense. It should have just been left to a totally random draw like it used to be. But, this happened because of hunters complaining that they had more rights to these limited tags just because they had been applying for many years.

So like I said in another thread- please don't ask the state to "fix" the draw system. The only thing that will happen is they'll find a way to make it worse.

[cmiller85]

Well, it's the system we have. Don't like it? Don't apply. I agree using a point system with moose permits doesn't make sense. It should have just been left to a totally random draw like it used to be. But, this happened because of hunters complaining that they had more rights to these limited tags just because they had been applying for many years.

So like I said in another thread- please don't ask the state to "fix" the draw system. The only thing that will happen is they'll find a way to make it worse.

I agree that we shouldn't request the state to "fix" anything. They should just do away with it. But I don't buy the fact that a few hunter complaints is what led to the point system. I think the WDFW saw a way to make more money and used a few complaints as their reasoning, just like they did when they split the permit categories a couple of years ago. I don't doubt that some people wanted it that way but the WDFW isn't going to just listen to a few hunters like that. there was no overwhelming demand from hunters that I'm aware of, the department had something to gain.

A good example is the lighted nocking issue. It had something like 90% support from hunters (as I remember), but WDFW shot it down. It took a large majority several years to get them to finally give in to the pressure. The WDFW when to the point system and expanded categories because they wanted to, IMO. If they thought they could have sold a lighted nock permit then all it would likely have taken would be a short rant from one disgruntled bow hunter who lost his arrow to "convince" them it was an overwhelming public demand. 

[WAcoueshunter]

Don't forget that you get four choices (actually, looks like five this year?), so the printed odds are misleading.  Your overall odds of drawing a moose tag should approximate the sum of the four (or five) units you apply for.    Yes, there may be 13,000 people applying for 21 permits in 49DN...but a large number of those 13,000 are also in the hat for the 10 Kettle tags, 15 Selkirk tags, 7 Huckleberry tags, etc.   Numerator stays the same, but the denominator is the sum of all the tags you apply for.

Were there four choices in 1998, before the points system was implemented?  If not, that would partly explain the big apparent jump in 49DN apps.

[bobcat]

The best way to get odds for moose is take the total number of applications (19,224) and divide it by the total moose permits (82).

For odds of 1 in 234.

I realize that doesn't take points into account but it still gives you a general idea.

[cmiller85]

Don't forget that you get four choices (actually, looks like five this year?), so the printed odds are misleading.  Your overall odds of drawing a moose tag should approximate the sum of the four (or five) units you apply for.    Yes, there may be 13,000 people applying for 21 permits in 49DN...but a large number of those 13,000 are also in the hat for the 10 Kettle tags, 15 Selkirk tags, 7 Huckleberry tags, etc.   Numerator stays the same, but the denominator is the sum of all the tags you apply for.

Were there four choices in 1998, before the points system was implemented?  If not, that would partly explain the big apparent jump in 49DN apps.

I'm not sure on how many choices you got back then. That's a good point though and might possibly explain the initial spoke, but I do know that 49 DN increased by about 1,000 applicants on average each year and there were 4 choices during most if not all of those years. If the WDFW just limited your entry to 1 hunt choice that would increase drawing odds substantially. That's probably to easy though.

[splitshot]

  i keep saying this:  we have too many people!   mike w

[bobcat]

I don't think limiting moose applications to one choice would change odds at all. How could it? You'd still have the same number of people applying for the same number of permits. That equals the same exact odds.   Correct?