Idaho: Predation Management Plans, Middle Fork, Lolo, Selway Elk Zones

[idahohuntr]

It is widely believed there is an agenda within wolf studies to support the agenda of this whole wolf introduction. That agenda is to promote wolves and eliminate hunting opportunity and ranching.

Sounds like a lot of agendas    There are a lot more serious threats to hunting (and ranching) than wolves. 

I would not want to see this person fired because they provide insight about things learned during the study that were not mentioned in the study results.

Only if this person works for some extremist, non-scientific group would this be likely.  If they work for any respectable government agency or private organization there should be no issue in reporting all study results objectively.  I have experience in this arena and rarely has any attempt to withhold or coverup study findings ever worked out for an agency in the long run...whats far more common is a disgruntled employee disagrees with their superiors and so they portray legitimate disagreements of data etc. as an attempt to "hide" information or data.  Two very different things.

[bearpaw]

I would not want to see this person fired because they provide insight about things learned during the study that were not mentioned in the study results.

Only if this person works for some extremist, non-scientific group would this be likely.  If they work for any respectable government agency or private organization there should be no issue in reporting all study results objectively.  I have experience in this arena and rarely has any attempt to withhold or coverup study findings ever worked out for an agency in the long run...

Exactly, I agree, myself and many other people view many of these wolf promoting biologist as extremists!

In the end the facts about wolves are coming out anyway, you simply cannot cover up facts forever, regardless of the faulty science presented by some wolf loving biologists, the facts about how wolves impact wildlife and livestock is what is driving the changes we are seeing in wolf management. 

whats far more common is a disgruntled employee disagrees with their superiors and so they portray legitimate disagreements of data etc. as an attempt to "hide" information or data.  Two very different things.

I can assure you that is not the case. The person is very happy with the job, but has watched how all types of wildlife leaves a drainage when wolves move in. Wolf favoring researchers are not reporting this in their research. Very likely because it would have a negative effect on wolves.

There is a good read somewhere about how researchers become enamored by the animal they are researching and how hard it is for researchers to remain unbiased. I think wolves are a pretty good example of that.

[bearpaw]

Getting back to the original post, it appears to me that Idaho is getting a pretty good handle on predator impacts in some of their elk zones. I am sure IDFG is limited by funding and that prevents them from identifying other elk zones for more intense wolf management at this time. IDFG flies most elk zones with helicopters to count ungulates, but the zones are on rotation, each year they do different zones because they cannot afford to fly all zones every year. Therefore I am reasonably certain we will see additional predator management plans for more zones as the years go by.

[finnman]

 
  :twocents:There's more factors than your mind could imagine,It's proven logic that juveniles breeding can screw things up faster than if a mature bull does most of the breeding .Now if you have to take a chopper out to do the job of a wolf  than there's a problem I suggest you do some light reading.

Thanks for the advise, I do know how to read.
Factors, yes there are lots of them, but right now the only thing I want to read is the report on the Selway elk herd that says immature bulls doing the breeding is one of the main culprits hurting the herd growth??
In other words prove it with this herd.

[jon.brown509]

 
  :twocents:There's more factors than your mind could imagine,It's proven logic that juveniles breeding can screw things up faster than if a mature bull does most of the breeding .Now if you have to take a chopper out to do the job of a wolf  than there's a problem I suggest you do some light reading.

Thanks for the advise, I do know how to read.
Factors, yes there are lots of them, but right now the only thing I want to read is the report on the Selway elk herd that says immature bulls doing the breeding is one of the main culprits hurting the herd growth??
In other words prove it with this herd.

 "Nature is chaos" (Aronald leopold 1945) ,There is a pretty big study going on down there on calf survival rate,and one big factor is conception time do too early or late breeding instead of  conception at optimal breeding time.
http://www.rmef.org/NewsandMedia/PressRoom/NewsReleases/ElkHuntForecast2011.aspx

http://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/animals/mammal/ceel/all.html

here's some interesting reads for the area

[huntnnw]

Whats intresting is the Hells Canyon herd is flourshing and is WAY over objective! There are lots of wolves here too. Just in unit 18 there was estimated 454 elk in 1989. In Feb of 2012 there is now an estimated 2,400 elk and has exceded the carrying capacity of the habitat.

[bearpaw]

 
  :twocents:There's more factors than your mind could imagine,It's proven logic that juveniles breeding can screw things up faster than if a mature bull does most of the breeding .Now if you have to take a chopper out to do the job of a wolf  than there's a problem I suggest you do some light reading.

Thanks for the advise, I do know how to read.
Factors, yes there are lots of them, but right now the only thing I want to read is the report on the Selway elk herd that says immature bulls doing the breeding is one of the main culprits hurting the herd growth??
In other words prove it with this herd.

 "Nature is chaos" (Aronald leopold 1945) ,There is a pretty big study going on down there on calf survival rate,and one big factor is conception time do too early or late breeding instead of  conception at optimal breeding time.
http://www.rmef.org/NewsandMedia/PressRoom/NewsReleases/ElkHuntForecast2011.aspx

http://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/animals/mammal/ceel/all.html

here's some interesting reads for the area

jon.brown, with all due respect, IDFG has already identified through studies they have already completed in which they inspected the cause of death on calves and cow elk and it was proven that wolves are the primary factor limiting the Selway and Lolo elk herds at this time.

Are you telling us the IDFG studies by Zager and by Pauley determining that wolves are the current limiting factor are incorrect?

Idaho: Predation Management Plan, Lolo and Selway Elk Zones
http://fishandgame.idaho.gov/public/wildlife/planLoloSelwayPredation.pdf

DEFINITION OF PROBLEM

Elk numbers are currently well below management objectives in the Lolo and Selway Zones. Since the early to mid 1990s, elk calf to cow ratios have continued to decline, and have been at levels too low to sustain elk populations. More recently, cow survival rates have also declined to problematic levels. A number of factors have been identified as contributors to this situation. Declining habitat conditions caused by a shift from early forest seral stages to much less productive mid to late seral stages have been a source of concern for decades. More recently, the spread of noxious weeds (especially spotted knapweed) has also contributed to the decline in elk habitat quality. A major winter event in 1996-97, with record snowfall more than 200% of normal, caused a severe winter die-off that resulted in a population decline. White et al. (2010) documented heavy predation on neonate elk calves by black bears as additive and the primary proximate mortality factor of neonate calves (age ≤ 90 days). Additionally, predation by mountain lions was prevalent on all age classes of elk (Zager et al. 2007a, Zager et al. 2007b, White et al. 2010). Currently wolves, which were not present during the early portion of this elk decline, are a major mortality factor on older calves (≥6-month old) and cow elk (Zager et al. 2007b, Pauley et al. 2009). Lower cow and calf survival due to wolves is continuing to suppress the elk population (Pauley et al. 2009, Pauley and Zager 2011).

[jon.brown509]

 Now did you ever ask why wolves were so successful at collecting calves ? I'm not gonna lie if IDFG said the sky was blue i would still look to see if there right lol  IDFG has lost a lot of creditability in the wildlife world it's hard to justify and count on anything they do as proven wildlife facts"one reason there in the mess there in" until another sample group is done ,Now here's where you need to look past the wolf"predators" ,open your mind and start thinking deep around the subject.Never said that  they were incorrect in their studies but again ask your self why do you think wolves are able to get such a high calf mortality rate? I know BP that your a great outfitter now take a ponder at how many heard and mature bull's you have seen to juveniles  recently....Now if the heard has all their calves at the same time  during optimal breeding time than calves well have a higher success rate from 16% where its at now in 2013 LOLO area to before at 35% 2010 LOLO area success because all the young are born at once and have a higher odds at being picked.Now lets stagger conception where we lower the odd's from 1 in 6  born about the same time or 1 in 12 to about a whole 1 in 4 ?  predators not just wolves can pick off calves that are being born that sparingly . What's awesome is that  there is a longer elk calf study  being done over in Oregon for the last 3 years  where calves were at about 86% mortality rate due to predation by cougars,One of the biggest factors they were finding in affecting the calves survival rate was conception period.If the cow elk all had there calves in a short window with in a day or two of each other they survived much stronger than the cow elk who got roughed up by a juvenile  and had her calf too early or too late.  Does this make more sense now?

jon.brown, with all due respect, IDFG has already identified through studies they have already completed in which they inspected the cause of death on calves and cow elk and it was proven that wolves are the primary factor limiting the Selway and Lolo elk herds at this time.

Are you telling us the IDFG studies by Zager and by Pauley determining that wolves are the current limiting factor are incorrect?

Idaho: Predation Management Plan, Lolo and Selway Elk Zones
http://fishandgame.idaho.gov/public/wildlife/planLoloSelwayPredation.pdf

[bearpaw]

Now did you ever ask why wolves were so successful at collecting calves ? I'm not gonna lie if IDFG said the sky was blue i would still look to see if there right lol  IDFG has lost a lot of creditability in the wildlife world it's hard to justify and count on anything they do as proven wildlife facts"one reason there in the mess there in" until another sample group is done ,Now here's where you need to look past the wolf"predators" ,open your mind and start thinking deep around the subject.Never said that  they were incorrect in their studies but again ask your self why do you think wolves are able to get such a high calf mortality rate? I know BP that your a great outfitter now take a ponder at how many heard and mature bull's you have seen to juveniles  recently....Now if the heard has all their calves at the same time  during optimal breeding time than calves well have a higher success rate from 16% where its at now in 2013 LOLO area to before at 35% 2010 LOLO area success because all the young are born at once and have a higher odds at being picked.Now lets stagger conception where we lower the odd's from 1 in 6  born about the same time or 1 in 12 to about a whole 1 in 4 ?  predators not just wolves can pick off calves that are being born that sparingly . What's awesome is that  there is a longer elk calf study  being done over in Oregon for the last 3 years  where calves were at about 86% mortality rate due to predation by cougars,One of the biggest factors they were finding in affecting the calves survival rate was conception period.If the cow elk all had there calves in a short window with in a day or two of each other they survived much stronger than the cow elk who got roughed up by a juvenile  and had her calf too early or too late.  Does this make more sense now?

jon.brown, with all due respect, IDFG has already identified through studies they have already completed in which they inspected the cause of death on calves and cow elk and it was proven that wolves are the primary factor limiting the Selway and Lolo elk herds at this time.

Are you telling us the IDFG studies by Zager and by Pauley determining that wolves are the current limiting factor are incorrect?

Idaho: Predation Management Plan, Lolo and Selway Elk Zones
http://fishandgame.idaho.gov/public/wildlife/planLoloSelwayPredation.pdf

I can see what you are trying to say and will agree it could make some difference, but I think you are placing to much weight on your theory and ignoring documented facts. By inspecting elk kill sites the Idaho studies showed that wolves were eating large numbers of >6month calves as well as the adult cow elk at a rate that exceeds annual recruitment. So it really doesn't matter when the calf is born, it has a slim chance of not being eaten as a young calf, half grown calf, or even as an adult.

You are beginning to sound like you cannot get past your desire to prove that wolves don't affect elk populations by eating them. This is the problem with many biologists, they fall in love with the animal of their studies and the science gets tainted, don't get caught up that way. 

[bearpaw]

jon, if you investigate both the studies closer you will learn that bears are a primary predator during the first couple months, it seems bears are what would have a greater impact when birth dates are spread out. Currently the bear season has been extended and you can buy 2 bear tags so that is being addressed.

Additionally look at the Idaho elk plan statistics, it says 47% of the bulls harvested in the Lolo and 50% of the bulls harvested in the Selway are 6pt+ which indicates the bulls in both areas have good age structure. I would say your theory that young bulls are doing the majority of breeding in these areas is very likely faulty.

I believe it also said wolves are the primary predator (75% of elk kills) on >6 month calves and adult cows. It appears to me as it did to IDFG that wolves are the limiting factor.

[jon.brown509]

I can see what you are trying to say and will agree it could make some difference, but I think you are placing to much weight on your theory and ignoring documented facts. By inspecting elk kill sites the Idaho studies showed that wolves were eating large numbers of >6month calves as well as the adult cow elk at a rate that exceeds annual recruitment. So it really doesn't matter when the calf is born, it has a slim chance of not being eaten as a young calf, half grown calf, or even as an adult.

You are beginning to sound like you cannot get past your desire to prove that wolves don't affect elk populations by eating them. This is the problem with many biologists, they fall in love with the animal of their studies and the science gets tainted, don't get caught up that way. 
[/quote]

 My desire like I would say you don't know jack crap about my desire's for wildlife .My main animal I'm doing Right now for my studie is actually wolverines lol the honey bager of the north wes tlol also  I'm also looking more into ecology than indvidual wildlife.My integrity well always be in tact  I know wolves are a limiting factor i'm trying to explain as to why they are  that is all  For the record it's not my theory it's your guys Zager and Pauley that found it in there data 

[bearpaw]

I can see what you are trying to say and will agree it could make some difference, but I think you are placing to much weight on your theory and ignoring documented facts. By inspecting elk kill sites the Idaho studies showed that wolves were eating large numbers of >6month calves as well as the adult cow elk at a rate that exceeds annual recruitment. So it really doesn't matter when the calf is born, it has a slim chance of not being eaten as a young calf, half grown calf, or even as an adult.

You are beginning to sound like you cannot get past your desire to prove that wolves don't affect elk populations by eating them. This is the problem with many biologists, they fall in love with the animal of their studies and the science gets tainted, don't get caught up that way. 

 My desire like I would say you don't know jack crap about my desire's for wildlife .My main animal I'm doing Right now for my studie is actually wolverines lol the honey bager of the north wes tlol also  I'm also looking more into ecology than indvidual wildlife.My integrity well always be in tact  I know wolves are a limiting factor i'm trying to explain as to why they are  that is all  For the record it's not my theory it's your guys Zager and Pauley that found it in there data 

Maybe I'm misunderstanding your posts. I thought you were trying to say the low elk numbers were due to immature bulls doing the breeding. Now are you saying that's not your theory and that wolves are not your focus?

[jon.brown509]

 No it's not 100% the fault of immature  breeding there are so many factors that come in its ridiculous.  But based on data results that have been found in LoLo was that wolves were chasing  elk around as everyone knows but the thing is it has disrupting breeding times with mature bulls ,due to stress and collecting cow's  "found in data collected" which in turn has allowed juveniles to harass more cows and started staggering conception and increasing the calf and cow mortality rate.It's not a theory it has been proven in more than one study group LoLo just happened to become part of the calf mortality group study of carnivores on elk calves
  Second no way in  that I would want to touch that boat with a 20ft pole  and specialize in wolves.To crazy and too many nut jobs. But I would  like to specialize in carnivores "so a lil bit of wolf knowledge needed" and how they effect the environment/ecosystem/ect . See a family friend out of Wallowa county Oregon is a biologist who specializes in carnivores in rural environments and all he does is study ways to reduce predators on livestock ,people, ect and  also how they effect the ecosystem "My dream Job" if there ever is a problem he goes out and removes it.But for my study animal of choice threw the next 4 years tell i get my Doctrine is Wolverines there my focus animal you ever wanna talk about wolverines I can talk your ear off lol
I just like to talk to other hunters and see there points of views and show them what i've learned and hopefully help answer questions or produce more questions to help people find out more info. 

[bearpaw]

No it's not 100% the fault of immature  breeding there are so many factors that come in its ridiculous.  But based on data results that have been found in LoLo was that wolves were chasing  elk around as everyone knows but the thing is it has disrupting breeding times with mature bulls ,due to stress and collecting cow's  "found in data collected" which in turn has allowed juveniles to harass more cows and started staggering conception and increasing the calf and cow mortality rate.It's not a theory it has been proven in more than one study group LoLo just happened to become part of the calf mortality group study of carnivores on elk calves
  Second no way in  that I would want to touch that boat with a 20ft pole  and specialize in wolves.To crazy and too many nut jobs. But I would  like to specialize in carnivores "so a lil bit of wolf knowledge needed" and how they effect the environment/ecosystem/ect . See a family friend out of Wallowa county Oregon is a biologist who specializes in carnivores in rural environments and all he does is study ways to reduce predators on livestock ,people, ect and  also how they effect the ecosystem "My dream Job" if there ever is a problem he goes out and removes it.But for my study animal of choice threw the next 4 years tell i get my Doctrine is Wolverines there my focus animal you ever wanna talk about wolverines I can talk your ear off lol
I just like to talk to other hunters and see there points of views and show them what i've learned and hopefully help answer questions or produce more questions to help people find out more info. 

Perhaps this is the reason cows are not all being bred on time?
http://hunting-washington.com/smf/index.php/topic,75422.0.html

[jon.brown509]

That's cool congrats to that but why does that explain anything it's just wolves hunting a cow outside of a herd on her own....A big bulls eye for any carnivore lol but this is why I think wolves suck Wolverine vs Grey wolf fight.