Free: Contests & Raffles.
Why would you not do it with max points and use the real numbers for WDFW? Just wondering. And in WA I would call it 'percentage creep' not 'point creep'. Not hatin, just sayin
Instead of assuming 100 new applicants a year for the Dayton you can find the actual numbers on fish in game..in some of my findings most units have a increase and decreases in applicants over a period of time which really makes predicting draw odds difficult...
I like to look at the big picture. Your numbers tell me that I have a 21.74% chance of drawing before 2020!
Here's an example from this: an applicant with 12 points in 2013 had an approximate 2.5% chance of drawing one of the 12 Dayton permits. In 2020 when he has 19 points, he will have an approximate 2.03% chance. In other words, his draw odds decreased each year over the eight year period.
Quote from: Bob33 on March 13, 2014, 11:32:38 AMHere's an example from this: an applicant with 12 points in 2013 had an approximate 2.5% chance of drawing one of the 12 Dayton permits. In 2020 when he has 19 points, he will have an approximate 2.03% chance. In other words, his draw odds decreased each year over the eight year period.Shouldn't it be going diagonally? In 2013 he had 12 points with 2.5%, 2014 13 points with 2.89% , 2015 14 points with 3.17%, ....then 2019 with 18 points and 3.72%. Odds keep increasing as he keeps applying. I don't know that you can keep applying with the same number of points, have to up them each year. He gets shortchanged in that his odds with that number of points is less than predecessors. (by 2019 his odds are 3.72% compared to the 5.55% someone with 18 points would've had in 2013)