Point creep for elk in Washington

[Bob33]

The following diagram shows estimated draw odds over an eight year period for a quality elk permit in Washington. This exercise is based on hunt #2006 in 2013, which is a Modern Dayton permit.  There were 12 permits available in 2013, and it is assumed there will be 12 permits available each year.

I assumed that the permits were given each year to the applicants with the most points. I assumed that 100 new applicants entered the pool each year.

The "breakeven" point for this hunt was around 9 points: applicants with less than 9 points in 2013 had odds slightly increase over the eight year period, while applicants with more than 9 points had odds decrease over the eight year period. Applicants with the highest number of points saw the greatest decrease in draw odds, and vice versa.

Here's an example from this: an applicant with 12 points in 2013 had an approximate 2.5% chance of drawing one of the 12 Dayton permits. In 2020 when he has 19 points, he will have an approximate 2.03% chance. In other words, his draw odds decreased each year over the eight year period.

"Points creep" has the greatest impact on hunts with few permits and lots of applicants.

[kentrek]

Instead of assuming 100 new applicants a year for the Dayton you can find the actual numbers on fish in game..in some of my findings most units have a increase and decreases in applicants over a period of time which really makes predicting draw odds difficult...

[snowpack]

So, it is likely worse than that right?  You modeled it most conservative?  Like assuming the 100 new applicants entered with one point only, not switching from other draws with multiple points.

[Mr Mykiss]

Why would you not do it with max points and use the real numbers for WDFW?  Just wondering. And in WA I would call it 'percentage creep' not 'point creep'. Not hatin, just sayin

[Bob33]

Why would you not do it with max points and use the real numbers for WDFW?  Just wondering. And in WA I would call it 'percentage creep' not 'point creep'. Not hatin, just sayin

18 was max points in 2013 with the exception of poacher points.

What real numbers? The 2013 data are from WDFW.

[Bob33]

Instead of assuming 100 new applicants a year for the Dayton you can find the actual numbers on fish in game..in some of my findings most units have a increase and decreases in applicants over a period of time which really makes predicting draw odds difficult...

If you can find me the actual number of new applicants in years 2014 to 2020 I'd be glad to rerun the odds.

[Curly]

 

[kentrek]

Just look at the old game regs    you can find PDF versions on the net


Using the numbers from the past would give ya a better guess of the future...

Just a suggestion,I could care less about it.....I'm in for Selkirk moose,Margaret bull and mudflow bull till I draw...then I'm out

[JPhelps]

I like to look at the big picture. Your numbers tell me that I have a 21.74% chance of drawing before 2020!

[Bob33]

I like to look at the big picture. Your numbers tell me that I have a 21.74% chance of drawing before 2020!

That's a positive way to look at it. When you apply multiple times over a period of time, odds of drawing once obviously increase.

The unfortunate part is the odds each year actually decrease on an individual basis for applicants towards the upper end of the points pool. "Points creep".

[snowpack]

Here's an example from this: an applicant with 12 points in 2013 had an approximate 2.5% chance of drawing one of the 12 Dayton permits. In 2020 when he has 19 points, he will have an approximate 2.03% chance. In other words, his draw odds decreased each year over the eight year period.

Shouldn't it be going diagonally? In 2013 he had 12 points with 2.5%, 2014 13 points with 2.89% , 2015 14 points with 3.17%, ....then 2019 with 18 points and 3.72%.  Odds keep increasing as he keeps applying.  I don't know that you can keep applying with the same number of points, have to up them each year.  He gets shortchanged in that his odds with that number of points is less than predecessors.  (by 2019 his odds are 3.72% compared to the 5.55% someone with 18 points would've had in 2013)

[X-Force]

And to think I looked today to see if I could by apps for elk, deer, goat etc... yuck

[X-Force]

Here's an example from this: an applicant with 12 points in 2013 had an approximate 2.5% chance of drawing one of the 12 Dayton permits. In 2020 when he has 19 points, he will have an approximate 2.03% chance. In other words, his draw odds decreased each year over the eight year period.

Shouldn't it be going diagonally? In 2013 he had 12 points with 2.5%, 2014 13 points with 2.89% , 2015 14 points with 3.17%, ....then 2019 with 18 points and 3.72%.  Odds keep increasing as he keeps applying.  I don't know that you can keep applying with the same number of points, have to up them each year.  He gets shortchanged in that his odds with that number of points is less than predecessors.  (by 2019 his odds are 3.72% compared to the 5.55% someone with 18 points would've had in 2013)

I think Bob is trying to show that with the point creep everyone entering late to the game has a progressively smaller chance to draw with the same amount of points going forward. A person may be putting in with more points each year and slightly increasing a chance to draw but it will require greater and greater amounts of points statically to draw the same tag.

[Bob33]

Here's an example from this: an applicant with 12 points in 2013 had an approximate 2.5% chance of drawing one of the 12 Dayton permits. In 2020 when he has 19 points, he will have an approximate 2.03% chance. In other words, his draw odds decreased each year over the eight year period.

Shouldn't it be going diagonally? In 2013 he had 12 points with 2.5%, 2014 13 points with 2.89% , 2015 14 points with 3.17%, ....then 2019 with 18 points and 3.72%.  Odds keep increasing as he keeps applying.  I don't know that you can keep applying with the same number of points, have to up them each year.  He gets shortchanged in that his odds with that number of points is less than predecessors.  (by 2019 his odds are 3.72% compared to the 5.55% someone with 18 points would've had in 2013)

No. Odds gets worse each year in this example for everyone who starts with more than 9 points in 2013. The person with 12 points in 2013 has a worse chance in 2014 when he has 13 points. His odds decrease each year. 

The data shown in my first post perhaps needs more explanation: the columns reflect an individual whose points increase each year. The points at the top of each column reflect the starting points the applicant had in 2013. As you go down each column, one point is added each year. The applicant with 12 points in 2013 will have 19 points in 2020, and he will have worse odds with 19 points in 2020 than he did with 12 in 2013.

[snowpack]

Okay, I was looking at the chart as being draw odds for certain points for certain years.