Point creep for elk in Washington

[steen]

From what I understand the points are squared.  That means if you have one point you draw with one.  If you have two points you draw with 4, 10 points you draw with 100.  To me it seems the more points you have the better your odds.  Even if it wasn't squared your odds go up, duh!

[6x6in6]

From what I understand the points are squared.  That means if you have one point you draw with one.  If you have two points you draw with 4, 10 points you draw with 100.  To me it seems the more points you have the better your odds.  Even if it wasn't squared your odds go up, duh!

Unless you are a max point holder your odds would get worse every year if they were not squared.

And yes, they do get worse every year with the present squared system.
The only way it could ever turn around and get better is if they issued a percentage of tags to the highest applicants point count and the remaining tags went into the present draw system.  Even then, I doubt it your odds would get better - minimal at best.

Good work Bob - had never gone out to the future looking at it from the perspective you did.  Makes sense and shows a similar trend from the past on spread sheets for other areas that I maintain.

[Mr Mykiss]

Why would you not do it with max points and use the real numbers for WDFW?  Just wondering. And in WA I would call it 'percentage creep' not 'point creep'. Not hatin, just sayin

18 was max points in 2013 with the exception of poacher points.

What real numbers? The 2013 data are from WDFW.

Here's my sign...I'm a *censored*. I got caught up in the whole "guy with 12 points". You smart, me dumb.
I stand by my new term (soon to be patented)... 'Percentage Creep'

[MuleDeerCrazy]

all things being the same, if people keep getting drawn out of the pool there are less people in your point category each proceeding year... odds get better (not by much for popular hunts, but they are climbing).

Even using your graph, the guy with 12 pnts in 2013 now has 13 pnts in 2014, 14 pnts in 2015, 15 pnts in 2016, etc... so again, all things being equal, as shown in your graph, your odds creep up each progressive year, also shown in your graph...

Maybe I'm missing something, it wouldn't even be called point creep if we're going backwards, we'd have to call it something like The Bonus Point Rip-Off Program

[vandeman17]

all things being the same, if people keep getting drawn out of the pool there are less people in your point category each proceeding year... odds get better (not by much for popular hunts, but they are climbing).

Even using your graph, the guy with 12 pnts in 2013 now has 13 pnts in 2014, 14 pnts in 2015, 15 pnts in 2016, etc... so again, all things being equal, as shown in your graph, your odds creep up each progressive year, also shown in your graph...

Maybe I'm missing something, it wouldn't even be called point creep if we're going backwards, we'd have to call it something like The Bonus Point Rip-Off Program

I believe the point being is that 12 points this year is better odds then if you had 12 points the following year and put in for the same permit. The point creep is similar to inflation where a dollar today is worth more then a dollar next year and so on.

[MuleDeerCrazy]

My bad... totally agree, the value of the points decrease as more people are in the game!

Thanks!

[TheHunt]

Yes, but there will be one time when the person who usually one put in for one hunt.  Say Dayton and nothing else he/she will put in for some less desirable because he has been at it for 16 years.  They will draw on the second choice and thus they will start over. 

[autodink13]

Sucks for the people who put in with 1 in 2013. 7 years later in 2020, now with 8 points, they still only have about a .36% chance of drawing.

I think we should have to choose which category we apply for

[shanevg]

Bob's math is correct.  Your odds are going down every year despite the addition of one more point.  If you have 12 points this year, your name is in the hat 144 times, next year with 13 points it will be in the hat 169 times.  Despite the increase in number of times your name is in the hat, he pool of applicants increases so much that your odds actually decrease.

For those of you confused on how to read Bob's chart, you are supposed to pick your point category for this given year and then read straight down from there.  If you had 12 points this year you have a 2.5% chance of getting drawn.  If you want to see your odds for next year, read straight down that column.  The following year you will have 2.49% chance with 13 points.  The following year would be 2.43% and so on. 

The graph is designed to be easy to read without overwhelming with numbers on the chart, take your points this year and read straight down of the following 7 years.  Unfortunately it seems to have confused people more than anything else.

[actionshooter]

The chart makes sense, but lets face it, the odds are crappy now and even if they are getting worse. Will it really make a difference? 

At least in this case...

[trophyhunt]

Well this thread is depressing as heck, anyone want to buy my 19 points???

[kentrek]

Bob's math is correct.  Your odds are going down every year despite the addition of one more point.  If you have 12 points this year, your name is in the hat 144 times, next year with 13 points it will be in the hat 169 times.  Despite the increase in number of times your name is in the hat, he pool of applicants increases so much that your odds actually decrease.

For those of you confused on how to read Bob's chart, you are supposed to pick your point category for this given year and then read straight down from there.  If you had 12 points this year you have a 2.5% chance of getting drawn.  If you want to see your odds for next year, read straight down that column.  The following year you will have 2.49% chance with 13 points.  The following year would be 2.43% and so on. 

The graph is designed to be easy to read without overwhelming with numbers on the chart, take your points this year and read straight down of the following 7 years.  Unfortunately it seems to have confused people more than anything else.

Thanks I was reading it wrong 

[elk247]

Impressive system huh?  while I would jump at the chance to hunt branched bulls on the eastside (my ideal hunt) I will have to stick with otc opportunity to annually harvest monsters on the westside. Although I would dig an opportunity at one of the nooksack booners.

[kentrek]

While im not gons run the odds..I wonder which has a better chance..

Drawing a quality Westside tag or shooting a quality tag size bull in a general unit 

Something the state should prolly think about if they wana continue making money off us

[Sitka_Blacktail]

I like to look at the big picture. Your numbers tell me that I have a 21.74% chance of drawing before 2020!

Unless you draw your third or fourth choice first. Then you go back to the back of the line.  And it keeps getting worse.