collapse

Advertisement


Author Topic: Point creep for elk in Washington  (Read 10718 times)

Offline steen

  • Women's Board
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Nov 2009
  • Posts: 1789
Re: Point creep for elk in Washington
« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2014, 07:00:47 PM »
From what I understand the points are squared.  That means if you have one point you draw with one.  If you have two points you draw with 4, 10 points you draw with 100.  To me it seems the more points you have the better your odds.  Even if it wasn't squared your odds go up, duh!

Offline 6x6in6

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Frontiersman
  • *****
  • Join Date: Dec 2007
  • Posts: 3593
  • Location: Bellingham, WA
Re: Point creep for elk in Washington
« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2014, 08:16:16 PM »
From what I understand the points are squared.  That means if you have one point you draw with one.  If you have two points you draw with 4, 10 points you draw with 100.  To me it seems the more points you have the better your odds.  Even if it wasn't squared your odds go up, duh!
Unless you are a max point holder your odds would get worse every year if they were not squared.

And yes, they do get worse every year with the present squared system.
The only way it could ever turn around and get better is if they issued a percentage of tags to the highest applicants point count and the remaining tags went into the present draw system.  Even then, I doubt it your odds would get better - minimal at best.

Good work Bob - had never gone out to the future looking at it from the perspective you did.  Makes sense and shows a similar trend from the past on spread sheets for other areas that I maintain.


Offline Mr Mykiss

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Apr 2009
  • Posts: 1833
Re: Point creep for elk in Washington
« Reply #17 on: March 14, 2014, 10:32:37 AM »
Why would you not do it with max points and use the real numbers for WDFW?  :dunno: Just wondering. And in WA I would call it 'percentage creep' not 'point creep'. Not hatin, just sayin :twocents:
18 was max points in 2013 with the exception of poacher points.

What real numbers? The 2013 data are from WDFW.
Here's my sign...I'm a *censored*. I got caught up in the whole "guy with 12 points". You smart, me dumb.
I stand by my new term (soon to be patented)... 'Percentage Creep'
It is hard to follow one great vision in a world of darkness and of many changing shadows. Among these shadows men get lost.
-Black Elk

Offline MuleDeerCrazy

  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Scout
  • ****
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 374
Re: Point creep for elk in Washington
« Reply #18 on: March 14, 2014, 11:02:44 AM »
??? all things being the same, if people keep getting drawn out of the pool there are less people in your point category each proceeding year... odds get better (not by much for popular hunts, but they are climbing).

Even using your graph, the guy with 12 pnts in 2013 now has 13 pnts in 2014, 14 pnts in 2015, 15 pnts in 2016, etc... so again, all things being equal, as shown in your graph, your odds creep up each progressive year, also shown in your graph...

Maybe I'm missing something, it wouldn't even be called point creep if we're going backwards, we'd have to call it something like The Bonus Point Rip-Off Program :chuckle:

Offline vandeman17

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (+12)
  • Explorer
  • ******
  • Join Date: Jul 2007
  • Posts: 14494
  • Location: Wenatchee
Re: Point creep for elk in Washington
« Reply #19 on: March 14, 2014, 11:15:35 AM »
??? all things being the same, if people keep getting drawn out of the pool there are less people in your point category each proceeding year... odds get better (not by much for popular hunts, but they are climbing).

Even using your graph, the guy with 12 pnts in 2013 now has 13 pnts in 2014, 14 pnts in 2015, 15 pnts in 2016, etc... so again, all things being equal, as shown in your graph, your odds creep up each progressive year, also shown in your graph...

Maybe I'm missing something, it wouldn't even be called point creep if we're going backwards, we'd have to call it something like The Bonus Point Rip-Off Program :chuckle:

I believe the point being is that 12 points this year is better odds then if you had 12 points the following year and put in for the same permit. The point creep is similar to inflation where a dollar today is worth more then a dollar next year and so on.
" I have hunted almost every day of my life, the rest have been wasted"

Offline MuleDeerCrazy

  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Scout
  • ****
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 374
Re: Point creep for elk in Washington
« Reply #20 on: March 14, 2014, 11:30:37 AM »
My bad... totally agree, the value of the points decrease as more people are in the game!

Thanks!

Offline TheHunt

  • Washington For Wildlife
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Old Salt
  • ******
  • Join Date: Sep 2007
  • Posts: 6238
  • Location: Western Washington
Re: Point creep for elk in Washington
« Reply #21 on: March 14, 2014, 11:57:10 AM »
Yes, but there will be one time when the person who usually one put in for one hunt.  Say Dayton and nothing else he/she will put in for some less desirable because he has been at it for 16 years.  They will draw on the second choice and thus they will start over. 
275 down 2

Offline autodink13

  • Trade Count: (+1)
  • Hunter
  • ***
  • Join Date: Jun 2008
  • Posts: 247
  • Location: Ephrata
    • zion construction
Re: Point creep for elk in Washington
« Reply #22 on: March 14, 2014, 03:56:37 PM »
Sucks for the people who put in with 1 in 2013. 7 years later in 2020, now with 8 points, they still only have about a .36% chance of drawing.

I think we should have to choose which category we apply for :twocents:

Offline shanevg

  • Political & Covid-19 Topics
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Feb 2008
  • Posts: 2398
  • Location: L-Town (Lynden), WA
    • https://www.facebook.com/shanevg
Re: Point creep for elk in Washington
« Reply #23 on: March 14, 2014, 10:21:23 PM »
Bob's math is correct.  Your odds are going down every year despite the addition of one more point.  If you have 12 points this year, your name is in the hat 144 times, next year with 13 points it will be in the hat 169 times.  Despite the increase in number of times your name is in the hat, he pool of applicants increases so much that your odds actually decrease.

For those of you confused on how to read Bob's chart, you are supposed to pick your point category for this given year and then read straight down from there.  If you had 12 points this year you have a 2.5% chance of getting drawn.  If you want to see your odds for next year, read straight down that column.  The following year you will have 2.49% chance with 13 points.  The following year would be 2.43% and so on. 

The graph is designed to be easy to read without overwhelming with numbers on the chart, take your points this year and read straight down of the following 7 years.  Unfortunately it seems to have confused people more than anything else.

Offline actionshooter

  • Past Sponsor
  • Trade Count: (+6)
  • Old Salt
  • *****
  • Join Date: Apr 2007
  • Posts: 6034
  • Location: Olympia/Okanogan
    • https://www.instagram.com/steve.bell.actionshooter/
Re: Point creep for elk in Washington
« Reply #24 on: March 14, 2014, 10:46:53 PM »
The chart makes sense, but lets face it, the odds are crappy now and even if they are getting worse. Will it really make a difference?  :dunno:

At least in this case...

Offline trophyhunt

  • Forum Sponsor
  • Trade Count: (+11)
  • Explorer
  • *****
  • Join Date: Nov 2008
  • Posts: 19679
  • Location: Wetside
  • Groups: Wa Wild Sheep Life Member
Re: Point creep for elk in Washington
« Reply #25 on: March 14, 2014, 10:54:39 PM »
Well this thread is depressing as heck, anyone want to buy my 19 points??? :yike:
“In common with”..... not so much!!

Offline kentrek

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Frontiersman
  • *****
  • Join Date: Mar 2012
  • Posts: 3496
  • Location: west coast
Re: Point creep for elk in Washington
« Reply #26 on: March 14, 2014, 11:26:23 PM »
Bob's math is correct.  Your odds are going down every year despite the addition of one more point.  If you have 12 points this year, your name is in the hat 144 times, next year with 13 points it will be in the hat 169 times.  Despite the increase in number of times your name is in the hat, he pool of applicants increases so much that your odds actually decrease.

For those of you confused on how to read Bob's chart, you are supposed to pick your point category for this given year and then read straight down from there.  If you had 12 points this year you have a 2.5% chance of getting drawn.  If you want to see your odds for next year, read straight down that column.  The following year you will have 2.49% chance with 13 points.  The following year would be 2.43% and so on. 

The graph is designed to be easy to read without overwhelming with numbers on the chart, take your points this year and read straight down of the following 7 years.  Unfortunately it seems to have confused people more than anything else.

Thanks I was reading it wrong  :tup:

Offline elk247

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Feb 2013
  • Posts: 1684
  • Location: Skagit co.
Re: Point creep for elk in Washington
« Reply #27 on: March 14, 2014, 11:37:42 PM »
Impressive system huh?  :dunno: while I would jump at the chance to hunt branched bulls on the eastside (my ideal hunt) I will have to stick with otc opportunity to annually harvest monsters on the westside. Although I would dig an opportunity at one of the nooksack booners.

Offline kentrek

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Frontiersman
  • *****
  • Join Date: Mar 2012
  • Posts: 3496
  • Location: west coast
Re: Point creep for elk in Washington
« Reply #28 on: March 14, 2014, 11:42:05 PM »
While im not gons run the odds..I wonder which has a better chance..

Drawing a quality Westside tag or shooting a quality tag size bull in a general unit  :dunno:

Something the state should prolly think about if they wana continue making money off us

Offline Sitka_Blacktail

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Frontiersman
  • *****
  • Join Date: Dec 2011
  • Posts: 3396
  • Location: Hoquiam, WA
Re: Point creep for elk in Washington
« Reply #29 on: March 15, 2014, 01:22:48 AM »
I like to look at the big picture. Your numbers tell me that I have a 21.74% chance of drawing before 2020!

Unless you draw your third or fourth choice first. Then you go back to the back of the line.  And it keeps getting worse. :sry:
A man who fears suffering is already suffering from what he fears. ~ Michel de Montaigne

 


* Advertisement

* Recent Topics

Spot lock in the salt? by CP
[Today at 04:07:07 PM]


2025 Crab! by Stein
[Today at 03:05:47 PM]


Air Dryer Cherries by Stein
[Today at 02:59:12 PM]


Boundary Waters walleye trip by jackelope
[Today at 02:08:52 PM]


Seeking packer OnCall for early archery unit 328 Naneum/Colockum by mb
[Today at 12:47:18 PM]


Sockeye Numbers by Southpole
[Today at 10:08:15 AM]


Winchester model 97 will not cycle by mudflat mike
[Today at 09:29:17 AM]


2025 Area 9 King Opener by 30.06
[Today at 07:36:20 AM]


Crabbing at cornet bay? by swanderek
[Today at 07:31:00 AM]


49 Degrees North Early Bull Moose by westdcw
[Today at 07:20:54 AM]


Non-Shoulder mount elk ideas by Rob
[Today at 06:24:17 AM]


AKC lab puppies! Born 06/10/2025 follow as they grow!!! by scottfrick
[Yesterday at 07:37:30 PM]


AKC Australian Shepherd Puppies by TeacherMan
[Yesterday at 07:04:08 PM]


Area 11 2025 - Well? by huntnphool
[Yesterday at 04:42:10 PM]


8 year old attacked in 2023 ooops by shootnrun
[Yesterday at 04:23:14 PM]

SimplePortal 2.3.7 © 2008-2025, SimplePortal