best draw for moose unit wise

[Whitpirate]

Put in for the same as me... .49, Selkirk and Huckleberry that way you'll get drawn.  Going on 18 points this next year.

[Annette]

I missed this one and he's still there.... mt Spokane South 

[quadrafire]

I spend a fair amount of time in all of these units, and see moose in similar numbers it seems.
I believe I would select based on the hunting experience I would like and not necessarily a particular animal  for me. I would just be meat hunting.
I probably spend the most time in Mica (hangman) but for me it wouldn't be the ideal hunt. I would choose Selkirk for sure.

I have given you all a boost and taken my name out of the hat. I quit applying for the draw last year. Tired of wasting my money.

[Threewolves]

Alaska is the best place and you do not have to draw.  I have killed 5 up there, the last one was with bow and arrow. Hunting Alaska bull moose with a bow is kind of like hunting dinosaurs. I too have a bunch of WA Moose points and Max for big horn sheep, crap is it 19 point now? I guess if I really wanted one I should go some place other than WA, Same with moose if you really wanted one go hunt some place else. 19 pts, that is a life time waiting, life is too short.

[Sitka_Blacktail]

"I am really uncertain how best to go about cumulative probabilities with putting in for 4 moose hunts...it is definitely in your interest to do so"

Here's how. First, compute the odds of not drawing any of the four.

The odds of not drawing the first choice is 1 - 'odds of drawing'.  For sake of discussion, let's assume all four units have a 1 in 100 chance. That means the chance of not drawing the first choice = 1 - .01 = .99.  The odds of not drawing the second choice is .99. Same for the third and four.

Therefore the odds of not drawing any of the four is .99 x .99 x .99 x .99 = approximately .9606. The odds of drawing one of them is thus 1 - .9606 or about .0394.

Some people mistakenly believe that you can add individual probabilites. It's easy to see the falacity of this if you consider a coin flip. The odds of flipping heads is 50%. However, flipping the coin twice does not produce a 100% chance of getting heads.

Using the reverse method is often the easiest way to solve this problem.

Yup. If you flip a coin once the odds are 50% of flipping a head. The odds of the next flip being  head is also 50%. This makes the odds of flipping a coin twice and getting heads at least once 75%. Flip again and that flip also has 50% odds of being a head, but the overall odds of having flipped a head has climbed to 87.5% flip a 4th flip, and the overall odds climb to 93.75%. The odds of flipping a coin 5 times and flipping a head at least once are 98.675% and if you flip a coin 6 times those odds go up to 98.4375%. If you flip a coin 7 times the odds of flipping a heads at least once is 99.21875 and finally if you flip a coin 8 times, the odds of flipping at least one heads is 99.609375%. Nearly 100%, but no matter how man times you continue to flip, you will never reach 100% You will just get ever so small closer to it.

But while 99.609375% seems pretty much a sure bet, what does it mean? I'll round it to 99.6094% for an example. It means if you flipped a coin 8 times and did that a total of 1 million times, probability would dictate that 996,094 times you would flip at least one heads. But probability would also dictate that 3,906 times, you would flip 8 tails in a row. Certainly not an impossibility, just highly unlikely. Divide both sides of the equation by 1,000 and if you flipped a coin 8 times and did that 1,000 times, you'd likely flip 8 tails about 4 times.

[Sitka_Blacktail]

With maximum points (19) the odds of drawing a 49 Degree North tag are currently about 1 in 125. I think the best advice is to apply for as many units as possible (currently four) each year. If drawn in any unit, you will find quality moose.

Definitely good advice, although I'm not sure about the math. 

In 2012, there were 13,068 49DN applicants with an average of 6 points, or 470,448 total numbers in the draw.  Divide by 21 49DN tags, equals 22,402 numbers in the draw per tag.  Someone with 19 points would have 361 numbers in the draw.  22,402/361 = 62, or 1:62 odds.

If that same person put in for three other units, his/her overall odds would get down to 1:15 or so.

Average points don't work for this. You need to compute "names in the hat" individually.  There were 890,434 names in the hat for 49 DN. See below. Example - for the three applicants with 19 points, there were 1083 names in the hat: 19^2 x 3.

Points   Applications   Names
19   3   1083
18   5   1620
17   332   95948
16   189   48384
15   203   45675
14   568   111328
13   568   95992
12   584   84096
11   617   74657
10   677   67700
9   847   68607
8   860   55040
7   875   42875
6   992   35712
5   1095   27375
4   1130   18080
3   1148   10332
2   1185   4740
1   1190   1190
Totals   13068   890434

This chart shows the downfall of using preference points or weighted preference points for extremely limited draw situations.  As time goes on, if everyone stays in the system from the time they get a license until they quit hunting, or get drawn since this is a once in a lifetime draw, the odds will continue to get smaller that someone who puts in for the first time will ever get drawn. It gets even worse if the number of applicants keeps growing as is evidenced by this chart.

I will use the chart above as an example and will put the average career for a hunter at 50 years (age 15-65). For starters, if everything else stays the same 13,068 individual hunters put in for this draw for 21 tags.  That means only .16% will draw this year, regardless of the preference points. The reality of that is, it will take the average hunter 625 years to be drawn. With an average hunting career of 50 years, that equates to only 1 out of 8 hunters ever being drawn for this tag during their hunting lifetime. No amount of preference point will ever change that fact. But the ones who got started gaining preference points later will be at an even bigger disadvantage. Right now, only 8 people have either 18 or 19 preference points. But if you look at this chart, in 6 years, over 1800 people will have 18 or more preference points.  Where does that put a first time hunter?  At 21 tags per year times a 50 year hunting career, that equals 1050 tags given out in the average hunter's career. But in 6 years, there will be 1800 with 18 or more points. That means  750+ of those people will never draw in their lifetime. Actually it means even more of the will never draw because most of them will be 20 or more years already into their hunting career. So they would have 30 years or less remaining to hunt and draw a tag. In the graph above, a first time applicant has over 11,800 people ahead of them in the preference points race. Even if future applicant numbers stay static, at 1190 per year, a first time applicant in six years will have over 6800 more people ahead of them than a first time applicant this year.  And that also includes removing the top six point categories out of the system.  Realistically, some of them will also still be in the system and be ahead of a first time applicant. Add to that the fact that the preference points are weighted and you can see how disadvantaged a first time applicant will be in six years.  Most of those first time applicants will never be drawn. And as the years go by, the few successful applicants will be older and older as the number of high preference point applicants swells. The game is stacked. But by adding preference points and letting people apply for 4 different moose hunts, it gives the impression that you might have a good chance to draw. All that does is attract more people to the draw, making more money each draw, but making the odds of being drawn even worse. If you are looking to encourage new hunters, disenfranchising them before they ever start is not the way to go about it.

[brew]

oh come on, somebody with one point cant draw and we all know it.

sorry to be the buzz kill but back in 2006 I drew the 49 degrees north tag with only one point....saw 5 moose the opening day and shot a bull that was chasing a cow that evening.....wasn't a monster but the spread was 43 1/2"......it can be done

[lhrbull]

so the only species they don't square points for is the sheep?

[Bob33]

"Add to that the fact that the preference points are weighted and you can see how disadvantaged a first time applicant will be in six years. Most of those first time applicants will never be drawn. And as the years go by, the few successful applicants will be older and older as the number of high preference point applicants swells. The game is stacked. But by adding preference points and letting people apply for 4 different moose hunts, it gives the impression that you might have a good chance to draw. All that does is attract more people to the draw, making more money each draw, but making the odds of being drawn even worse. If you are looking to encourage new hunters, disenfranchising them before they ever start is not the way to go about it."

I agree. Its just like the lottery: the system is intended to make money and has very few winners.

[Bob33]

so the only species they don't square points for is the sheep?

Bighorn sheep are no different than other species. Points are squared.

[BullMagnet76]

First choice 49, second choice Huckleberry, third choice Aladdin, fourth choice Selkirk.

 

[PolarBear]

I missed this one and he's still there.... mt Spokane South 

Hey Annette, I saw a picture of you and your moose in Northwest Sporstman Magazine.  Congrats!!

[Biggerhammer]

oh come on, somebody with one point cant draw and we all know it.

sorry to be the buzz kill but back in 2006 I drew the 49 degrees north tag with only one point....saw 5 moose the opening day and shot a bull that was chasing a cow that evening.....wasn't a monster but the spread was 43 1/2"......it can be done

Awesome!

[stew pidasso]

Is kettle mostly private or what. Its right next to selkirks and the border so why doesn't anybody feeltthat would be a first choice?

[huntnnw]

Lots of public in Kettle range...some of the biggest bulls I have ever seen are in this unit

My buddy drew Mt spokane the first year he applied