Multiple tags Drawn

[Browndawg]

Glad I saw this. I've got 6 points for each, and I'd hate to draw multiple. I'm thinking I just might put in for Antlerless and buy points for the Quality and Bull. I'd hate to have to switch units to hunt for a Quality Bull, and eat all my Antlerless points in the unit I usually hunt. West Side Guy.

[Bob33]

Glad I saw this. I've got 6 points for each, and I'd hate to draw multiple. I'm thinking I just might put in for Antlerless and buy points for the Quality and Bull. I'd hate to have to switch units to hunt for a Quality Bull, and eat all my Antlerless points in the unit I usually hunt. West Side Guy.

With odds of drawing a quality permit with six points quite low, I'd think twice about sitting out a year for the very unlikely possibility of drawing multiple permits.

[blackveltbowhunter]

 ..... last year was the first year ever "ghosting" points for me. And I am in double digits for elk.

I understand the frustration of getting zeroed out, but have little sympathy for it. I know of dozens of permits that are wasted every year. Not wasted as in the hunter tried and didnt fill a tag, wasted as in the hunter didnt even hunt it and often had no or little intention of hunting it in the first place. Not knocking it the system is in place and allows it. I wish we would go back to pre cash grab permit system. Then guys who genuinely wanted a antlerless permit are not competing with guys who throw in "just in case" often with stacked points from waiting prior years for quality permits.

I havent accrued any antlerless points since the inception, and till last year doubled down on bull and quality, but at this point I would be dissapointed if I threw snake eyes and got both in one season.

[sumpnz]

I'll keep ghosting my quality tags and applying for cow tags until my hunting partners decide they don't want to hunt where we do anymore.  There aren't any quality tags for that unit, so if I drew the only way I'd get to use the tag is by either ditching them, or drawing a tag that had an earlier season and then hunting it solo.

[RadSav]

I've been applying for WA special hunts since before I was old enough to buy cigarettes.  That was a long, long, long time ago!  Not only have I never drawn two tags in a year...I'm still waiting for a tag that has horns or antlers on it.

[M_ray]

I think it should stay same.  People get to choose if they want points or not.  If you divided it it would take even longer to draw any tag.  A Bull tag is something many people wait for for over 10 years.  Antlerless tags are just a bonus and are often drawn under 5 years.  2015 my wife drew both and was just pumped to be able to tag a branched antler bull.

If it were a system where you had to choose only one between Deer, Elk, oil or antlerless then your odds of drawing will actually go up not down and most likely an antlerless tag could be drawn every time you chose it  Do some math and you'll find you actually have a better chance of going an entire lifetime without drawing an oil tag than you do of drawing it. 

[Bob33]

I think it should stay same.  People get to choose if they want points or not.  If you divided it it would take even longer to draw any tag.  A Bull tag is something many people wait for for over 10 years.  Antlerless tags are just a bonus and are often drawn under 5 years.  2015 my wife drew both and was just pumped to be able to tag a branched antler bull.

If it were a system where you had to choose only one between Deer, Elk, oil or antlerless then your odds of drawing will actually go up not down and most likely an antlerless tag could be drawn every time you chose it  Do some math and you'll find you actually have a better chance of going an entire lifetime without drawing an oil tag than you do of drawing it. 

"NOIL" permits.

In 2016, for “any moose” there were 19,324 applications for 107 permits: 1 in 180 overall odds.

“Any ram” bighorn sheep: 13,108 applications for 22 permits: 1 in 595.

Mountain goat: 8,900 applications for 21 permits: 1 in 423.

Your odds with points are better but are still fairly poor. For "any moose" there were 142 applications with 20 or more points; 4 of them drew: 1 in 35.

[sumpnz]

I think it should stay same.  People get to choose if they want points or not.  If you divided it it would take even longer to draw any tag.  A Bull tag is something many people wait for for over 10 years.  Antlerless tags are just a bonus and are often drawn under 5 years.  2015 my wife drew both and was just pumped to be able to tag a branched antler bull.

If it were a system where you had to choose only one between Deer, Elk, oil or antlerless then your odds of drawing will actually go up not down and most likely an antlerless tag could be drawn every time you chose it  Do some math and you'll find you actually have a better chance of going an entire lifetime without drawing an oil tag than you do of drawing it. 

"NOIL" permits.

In 2016, for “any moose” there were 19,324 applications for 107 permits: 1 in 180 overall odds.

“Any ram” bighorn sheep: 13,108 applications for 22 permits: 1 in 595.

Mountain goat: 8,900 applications for 21 permits: 1 in 423.

Your odds with points are better but are still fairly poor. For "any moose" there were 142 applications with 20 or more points; 4 of them drew: 1 in 35.

How many raffle tickets would it take to get better odds?

[Bob33]

I think it should stay same.  People get to choose if they want points or not.  If you divided it it would take even longer to draw any tag.  A Bull tag is something many people wait for for over 10 years.  Antlerless tags are just a bonus and are often drawn under 5 years.  2015 my wife drew both and was just pumped to be able to tag a branched antler bull.

If it were a system where you had to choose only one between Deer, Elk, oil or antlerless then your odds of drawing will actually go up not down and most likely an antlerless tag could be drawn every time you chose it  Do some math and you'll find you actually have a better chance of going an entire lifetime without drawing an oil tag than you do of drawing it. 

"NOIL" permits.

In 2016, for “any moose” there were 19,324 applications for 107 permits: 1 in 180 overall odds.

“Any ram” bighorn sheep: 13,108 applications for 22 permits: 1 in 595.

Mountain goat: 8,900 applications for 21 permits: 1 in 423.

Your odds with points are better but are still fairly poor. For "any moose" there were 142 applications with 20 or more points; 4 of them drew: 1 in 35.

How many raffle tickets would it take to get better odds?

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/raffles/big_game_raffle_ticket_sales.pdf

If my eyeballs and math are good, there were 5,526 moose raffle tickets sold last year. It would take about 30 tickets to get 1 in 180 odds, and 157 to get 1 in 35 odds. Tickets for moose are $6 each.

[sumpnz]

Aren't there 2 moose tags in the raffle?  Which would cut the required tickets in half for the 1:180 and 1:35 odds.  So 15 and 79 respectively.

[M_ray]

I think it should stay same.  People get to choose if they want points or not.  If you divided it it would take even longer to draw any tag.  A Bull tag is something many people wait for for over 10 years.  Antlerless tags are just a bonus and are often drawn under 5 years.  2015 my wife drew both and was just pumped to be able to tag a branched antler bull.

If it were a system where you had to choose only one between Deer, Elk, oil or antlerless then your odds of drawing will actually go up not down and most likely an antlerless tag could be drawn every time you chose it  Do some math and you'll find you actually have a better chance of going an entire lifetime without drawing an oil tag than you do of drawing it. 

"NOIL" permits.

In 2016, for “any moose” there were 19,324 applications for 107 permits: 1 in 180 overall odds.

“Any ram” bighorn sheep: 13,108 applications for 22 permits: 1 in 595.

Mountain goat: 8,900 applications for 21 permits: 1 in 423.

Your odds with points are better but are still fairly poor. For "any moose" there were 142 applications with 20 or more points; 4 of them drew: 1 in 35.

Now consider how many of your numbers include people that put in for all three or all five if you include antlerless moose and ewe ram, I know I do. Take those people out of each category and make them choose just one and your odds will be even better than you have figured. You may find in a few years that those who choose to go for a cow elk will be drawing every year! Not to mention it will eliminate the cow tags going unused because someone has also drawn a bull tag choosing to eat the cow tag that someone else would be happy to have. 

[baker5150]

Easy solution.

Just let the tags be filled. If you draw multiple Elk tags, you get to fill multiple elk tags.

[M_ray]

I think it should stay same.  People get to choose if they want points or not.  If you divided it it would take even longer to draw any tag.  A Bull tag is something many people wait for for over 10 years.  Antlerless tags are just a bonus and are often drawn under 5 years.  2015 my wife drew both and was just pumped to be able to tag a branched antler bull.

If it were a system where you had to choose only one between Deer, Elk, oil or antlerless then your odds of drawing will actually go up not down and most likely an antlerless tag could be drawn every time you chose it  Do some math and you'll find you actually have a better chance of going an entire lifetime without drawing an oil tag than you do of drawing it. 

"NOIL" permits.

In 2016, for “any moose” there were 19,324 applications for 107 permits: 1 in 180 overall odds.

“Any ram” bighorn sheep: 13,108 applications for 22 permits: 1 in 595.

Mountain goat: 8,900 applications for 21 permits: 1 in 423.

Your odds with points are better but are still fairly poor. For "any moose" there were 142 applications with 20 or more points; 4 of them drew: 1 in 35.

BTW lets take your odds of drawing and really look at the implied probability percentage of drawing and see if you still like the way it looks
For 1 to 180 odds for winning;

Probability of:
Winning = (0.0055) or 0.5525%
Losing = (0.9945) or 99.4475%


So yes after looking at a 99.4475% chance that you will not be drawn? then yes you can go a lifetime and never see an oil tag. 

Your odds with points are better but are still fairly poor.

 Also I am not saying eliminate points I'm saying eliminate the number of people in a category and the odds of drawing it will increase. 

[M_ray]

Easy solution.

Just let the tags be filled. If you draw multiple Elk tags, you get to fill multiple elk tags.

Sounds great but the reality is that most will not even hunt for a cow given a bull permit in their pocket. I shot a cow last year in the muzzy season and passed several legal 3 point or better bucks in Wa and ate the tag because I didn't need the meat. I can see people doing the same once one of the tags are filled    Who needs or has the space for two elk? I know some will be the exception to the rule but many hunters will not take two elk even given the chance.

[baker5150]

Easy solution.

Just let the tags be filled. If you draw multiple Elk tags, you get to fill multiple elk tags.

Sounds great but the reality is that most will not even hunt for a cow given a bull permit in their pocket. I shot a cow last year in the muzzy season and passed several legal 3 point or better bucks in Wa and ate the tag because I didn't need the meat. I can see people doing the same once one of the tags are filled    Who needs or has the space for two elk? I know some will be the exception to the rule but many hunters will not take two elk even given the chance.

I know a lot of people who could use that meat.  Friends, Family, Hunting buddies with bad luck, etc. 

Lets say you draw a quality and a bull tag, you wouldn't fill both tags if you could?
You have a modern cow and a modern quality tag, 2 separate seasons, I'd love to be in the woods hunting elk that long, who wouldn't?
Or a bull and a cow tag, you see a cow and fill that tag, now your set for meat and can still hunt for that bull of a lifetime knowing your set up if it doesn't happen. You can be picky with no worries about an empty freezer.

I'm just saying make it an option to fill both, right now your just screwed out of a tag
If it's our choice, and you don't need the meat, than don't fill the tag.  At least the choice was yours, not the DFW's.