Permit Only in the Colockum

[colockumelk]

Have I ever hunted the Clockum?
next year will be my 39th year hunting Washington...what do you think? Yes.

Yes it is a lottery system and YOU may never hunt for bull elk on the eastside in your entire life, and we still don't meet bull to cow ratio.


I'll most likely get drawn this year and I only have four points.  Archery guys get drawn on average every four years in the Yakima GMU"s where the ML's and the rifle guys average every 6 years.  Unless you put in for the Colockum only or the Blue MT units only you should as well.

Most of the Yakima herds meet their bull to cow ratio objectives.  The Colockum doesn't because too many spikes are killed every year.  Spike only works for the Yakima herd because they have alot less road access then we do.  I know we both agree on limiting road access so no need toget into that.

Ok...rifle hunters only get a weekend hunt...better than never! select road closures would enhance escapement...at least you would get to hunt. With  no general season and a e/w tag, you don't draw you don't hunt that year and maybe you don't hunt there ever again, even with 15 points. 15 points only allows 45 entries into the draw system.
How could a weekend with a 1 in 3 chance of harvesting a mature bull be more restrictive than NEVER hunting.

You must not be familiar with how the point system work.  They square the points you have.  Which means if you have 15 points then you would have 15x15=225 points.  Again with this much points you could easily draw any Yakima unit even with a rifle tag. 

Where do you think hunters couldn't hunt at all.  I would rather get drawn every three years in the Colockum and get to have an awsome hunt, and; still get to hunt every year just in another GMU (There are 10 other GMU's to hunt) then only get to hunt for two days.  In order to meet your 5 pt minimum objective the season would be so short it wouldn't even be worth it.  Many take an entire week to go hunting and your plan would limit them to two days at the most. 

I've hunted elk long enough to know mature bulls are very weary and even without cover they can put a man to shame in seconds....especially in the clockum.

Yes but with a rifle it's mostly about chance.  Maybe in thicker areas a weary bull can survive but not in the open like that.  They may evade one guy but are they going to be able to evade 9 other guys in one draw that's super open, when the bull is pushed?  It's not a matter of how weary and cagey the bull is.  When guys can shoot and see 400 yds the bull doesn't stand a chance.  A chance that I'm trying to give these elk.

Wouldn't road closures be considered habitat enhancement?

Obviously there needs to be some major road restrictions in these GMU's.  This will be my major goal this year is physically closing down as many roads as they'll let me close. 

You yourself have said it would work in your comment but it would be a short season...why do I have to prove anything?

Because I've already proven myself to people with alot of facts and stats.  I've shown that my method would indeed work.  I've shown how mathematically you would get drawn every 3 years and many would get drawn every 2 years.  Now YOU NEED to show us stats etc how your plan would work.  How many days could guys hunt.  What would the restrictions be, when would the season be.  Who knows it might be a good idea and I'l incorporate it into my plans when I go before the commission and when I go to the big game round table discussions.  Make a believer out of me.  The more ideas the better. 

5 or 6 point antler restriction to a general season would be short for a lead thrower but I'd bet WE could figure out how to lengthen the season with select habitat enhancement (road closures).

[colockumelk]

Okay here are the new numbers.  I did alot more research and crunched numbers based on the average of the last four hunting seasons not just last year.  I also used the distribution formula that the WDFW uses.  So here are the new numbers.

NOTESpike Harvest is the total number of spikes harvested on average every year between modern and archery seasons.

USER         CURRENT#    AVG Spec. Per.     SPIKE           # of ANIMAL       ADD           NEW AMT
GROUP        PERMITS       SUCC %              HARVEST     ENTITLED/%     PERMITS     PERMITS
Modern          6                 54%                  270            162/ 60%        295             301
Muz. Load.     1                 65%                  270             41/ 15%         63               64
Archery         4                 24%                  270              68/25%         283             287 
Total            11                36%                  270            270/100%        641             652

If you want to know what the numbers would be for the Yakima herd as well go to this link. 
http://www.washingtonsportsmen.com/?q=node/85

 
 

[YellowDog]

Hey Colocum, my brain aint workin right.  Can you give me the formula you used to figure the numbers say for just the new number of muzzle permits?  Thanks.

[luvtohnt]

Okay here are the new numbers.  I did alot more research and crunched numbers based on the average of the last four hunting seasons not just last year.  I also used the distribution formula that the WDFW uses.  So here are the new numbers.

NOTESpike Harvest is the total number of spikes harvested on average every year between modern and archery seasons.

USER         CURRENT#    AVG Spec. Per.     SPIKE           # of ANIMAL       ADD           NEW AMT
GROUP        PERMITS       SUCC %              HARVEST     ENTITLED/%     PERMITS     PERMITS
Modern          6                 54%                  270            162/ 60%        295             301
Muz. Load.     1                 65%                  270             41/ 15%         63               64
Archery         4                 24%                  270              68/25%         283             287 
Total            11                36%                  270            270/100%        641             652

If you want to know what the numbers would be for the Yakima herd as well go to this link. 
http://www.washingtonsportsmen.com/?q=node/85

This all looks good, but the only thing that would concern me is there WILL be a higher success rate with less pressure from hunters so there has to be some way to figure a percentage that the success rate will increase by with the reduced number of hunters present.

Brandon

[colockumelk]

I agree that there would probably be a higher success rate.  Which is why the WDFW would do what they always do and adjust the permits accordingly.  THose numbers are just based off of current permit success %'s and also on the spike permits.  So basically instead of killing 270 spikes in the Colockum you would now be killing 270 branch bulls a year.  And those numbers are too keep the harvest numbers the same. 

Yellow dog sure no problem.

Okay 270 spikes are killed a year total in the Colockum (328/329).  The Muzzle Loaders are entitled to 15% of those animals.  So 270 X 0.15 =40.5=41 animals.  Now the ML special permit average success rate for the Colockum is 65% it would take Z amount of permits to get the desired 41 animals harvested so take 41 X 100/65= 63.  Take the current amount of permits and add that to the new additional number.  63 +1= 64 permits would now be available to ML.  I hope that helps.  Thank you for the interest. 

[Elkaholic daWg]

 Fridays WDFW alert. Through the links you will get a feel for what they have planned, the April 3-4 agenda, and more. Such as comments and agency responses from the Ellensburg meeting


From:  WDFW Public Affairs (do.not.reply@dfw.wa.gov) 
Sent: Fri 3/20/09 5:30 PM
To:

WDFW NEWS RELEASE
Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
600 Capitol Way North, Olympia, WA 98501-1091
http://wdfw.wa.gov/

March 20, 2009
Contact:  Susan Yeager, (360) 902-2267

Fish and Wildlife Commission will consider
proposed hunting rules for 2009-11

OLYMPIA - The Washington Fish and Wildlife Commission will consider adopting a three-year package of statewide hunting seasons and rules during a public meeting scheduled April 3-4 in Olympia.

The commission, which sets policy for the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW), will meet both days at 8:30 a.m. in Room 172 of the Natural Resources Building at 1111 Washington St. S.E.

Hunting seasons under consideration include those for deer, elk, moose, bighorn sheep, mountain goat, black bear, cougar and small game in 2009, 2010 and 2011. 

Commissioners also will consider proposed revisions in special seasons and hunting restrictions; opportunities for terminally ill and disabled hunters; landowner hunting permits and damage-prevention permit hunts; trapping seasons; big game and wild turkey auctions, raffle and special-incentive permits; special closures and game management unit boundary descriptions; non-toxic shot requirements; and hunting equipment restrictions.

The commission is scheduled to take action on the three-year hunting plan April 4, the second day of the public meeting.  Proposals now before the commission are posted at http://wdfw.wa.gov/wlm/game/seasonsetting/index.htm#recommendations on the WDFW website.

Several of those proposals reflect changes made in response to public testimony at the commission's meeting last month in Ellensburg, said Dave Ware, WDFW game manager.  No further public testimony is scheduled on the three-year hunting plan at the April 3-4 commission meeting.

The proposals, developed after extensive public involvement, are based on the 2009-15 Game Management Plan, available at http://wdfw.wa.gov/wlm/game/management/2009-2015/  .

On the first day of the meeting, the commission is scheduled to take action on two proposed land transactions and will receive briefings from WDFW staff on issues ranging from the state's aquaculture industry to illegal marijuana growing on public lands.

A meeting agenda and background materials are posted on the commission's website at http://wdfw.wa.gov/commission/meetings.html . 

[colockumelk]

http://wdfw.wa.gov/wlm/game/seasonsetting/2009-2011_recommendations/final_2009_03_20/elk_general_seasons_special_permit_regulations.pdf

Go to the above link and scroll down to page 62 and you'll read one of my public comments at the meeting.

My comment which was a tiny part of it says "Go permit only in the Colockum.  Bulls are down 70% in 5 years.  True Spike is not the answer."

Here's their response.  Either they are straight up lying or they don't read their own research.

There are over 6,000 hunters that hunt the Colockum elk herd during the general season.  The agency is not ready to implement that drastic of a measure at this time."

If they were to look at their own studies which are at the below links they would know that on average only 4,278 hunters have hunted the Colockum.  And if you look at those numbers over the past 6 years they have been reduced by 56%

2007- 3,893 hunters
2006- 3,964 hunters
2005- 4,253 hunters
2004- 5,002 hunters
2003- 5,232 hunters
2002- 6,948 hunters

Here's the link with that info.  Like I said either they are lying or they need to read their own reports because the number they replied with "6,000" and the latest number of hunters that their reports say "3893" are two very different numbers. 
http://wdfw.wa.gov/wlm/game/harvest/index.htm

[Elkaholic daWg]

  Just curious Colockumelk, since it seems you really do your homework, where are these numbers extracted from? Back when we had 4 different tags it would have been easy- but now it's either east or west -how does anyone know for sure?

[colockumelk]

Here's the link for those numbers.  Look up each year and you can see how many guys hunted 328/329 each year. 

http://wdfw.wa.gov/wlm/game/harvest/index.htm

What I was getting at is this.  Their harvest reports say one thing but their response says another.  Either they are lying or they do not read their own research.  For example 3,893 different hunters claimed to have hunted in the "Clockum" in 2007.  That is the only research that we can go off of.  When they say that 6,000 hunters hunt the Clockum either their resonse is a lie or their research is a lie or like I said they don't read their own stuff. 

[Elkaholic daWg]

 Okay, I see it there, last year we camped  in the mission ( North side of Naneum Rd.) area that is a part of the Colockum where there were 803 hunters that you are not counting. And yes I realize that it still only adds up to 4696.  You need to count 251 also, even though the lower reaches of it seem to have been cleaned (deer and elk) out as compared to the past. Last year it was pathetic down low, but plenty of elk up high. I really wonder what the Impact of all those orchards, and thier workers have on the deer and elk in that area, becuase in the last 10 years they seem to be flat gone!

[colockumelk]

Okay good point.  But I also clearly stated in my speach to them that when I referrd to the "Clockum"
I was only talking about 328/329.  But you are right part of 251 is just as much a part of the "Clockum" as the 328/329.  So maybe I will start including them in those numbers. 

Amamzingly enough also the WDFW is going to conduct a two year study to figure out why the bull to cow ratio in the Colockum keeps dropping and why spike recruitment is so low.  WTF an idiot could look at a map and their harvest reports and in about 10 seconds figure that one out.  Oh well I'm sure that the million dollars spent on that research grant will go to a good cause.

[Buckrub]

 

I think you are starting to see the real picture. The state doesn't care about the elk, they are concerned about money.

The wdfw has turned the elk into a lottery and raffle at the expense of the animals. This is why they can't be trusted with a permit only management, it would turn into a fundraiser.

A two year study is just putting off the few who are bitchin at the moment.

The best avenue would be to get hunters organized with a common goal, they will only listen to $$$$$$$$$$$! If you want the elk herd managed properly you will have to pay$$

Good luck

[colockumelk]

This all looks good, but the only thing that would concern me is there WILL be a higher success rate with less pressure from hunters so there has to be some way to figure a percentage that the success rate will increase by with the reduced number of hunters present.
Brandon

The only way they could do that is give out 10% less permits and from there see what the success % would be.  And then continue to do what they do now which is base the amount of permits off of the success % and numbers of animals.

BTW I asked a certain person that I will leave anonymous and my number of 652 permits was off by 12.  The number I was told would be 640. 

And the study they are going to do is to study the migration patterns of the Colockum elk and also a big part is to study calf mortality and why the mortality rate is so high.  The calf mortality thing alone in my opinion will be money well spent.  I look forward to the results.