Peaches Ridge Draw Odds

[BULLBLASTER]

Why would you ghost point until drawing multiseason?
Always put your name in for an actual permit. 

[Bob33]

If you consider how difficult it is to draw quality hunts, buying ghost points and skipping a year to not apply for an actual hunt doesn’t make sense unless you’re certain you won’t be able to hunt that year.

Here’s some data. This chart shows the odds of drawing a permit with three different odds over four different time periods. For example, if you apply for a permit with 1 in 10 odds for ten straight years, you still only have a 65% chance of drawing sometime during that ten year period. Even after 20 years you have an 88% chance of drawing in that time period. Apply for a permit with 1 in 50 odds for 50 years, and you only have a 64% chance of drawing.

[trophyhunt]

Why would you ghost point until drawing multiseason?
Always put your name in for an actual permit. 

my example of why to only apply when you draw multi is this.  Let’s say your  mostly interested in killing bulls, mostly 3 point or better. If you apply for the eastside and don’t draw, your stuck hunting spikes or w archery, spikes and cows.  So, I have 23 points, 23 years waiting for an any bull tag.  If I only applied for special permits when I drew a multi season elk, I’d have been hunting 3 point or better all these years on the west side.  Keeping my hunting camp tradition alive, instead of just getting old waiting.  Now, I do go to Idaho to get my fix for any bull hunts, thank God for Idaho! I completely understand your thoughts, if your not in the draw, you’ll never draw.  But I think you understand where I’m coming from as well?  I’ll be done w the points game when I finally draw out, it’s just not worth your youth passing you by, and now that I’ve waited all these years, the elk population in the blues is tanking! Sweet!

[Mr Mykiss]

the elk population in the blues is tanking!

The elk population in the blues is tanking and they cut the peaches tags in half but it's still all good right?

[Duckhunter14]

the elk population in the blues is tanking!

The elk population in the blues is tanking and they cut the peaches tags in half but it's still all good right?

Are you going to stop applying? Yeah me neither....

[TikkaT3-270Shortmag]

It's all irrelevant.  I drew a quality with 5 pts.  Dont care what my odds are it's just *censored* ass luck.

[hunt4life]

It’s all luck I know a guy who drew teanway bull tag 2 years ago with 2 points!! It’s all luck!!

[Mr Mykiss]

You guys have got it all wrong. I’m not gonna stop applying...I just want you all to stop applying!!!
Wait until I bust out the draw odds on the quality hunts!!!

[trophyhunt]

You guys have got it all wrong. I’m not gonna stop applying...I just want you all to stop applying!!!
Wait until I bust out the draw odds on the quality hunts!!!

[kevinlisa06]

I’m putting in for an Any Bull tag finally again. I drew an any bull tag back in 2000 and my dad has yet to draw. The only reason I’m putting in again is to hopefully better his odds. With my 8 points I’m hoping to help him draw the tag finally. Can’t remember the year this stupid draw started but he has that many points.


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[Magnum_Willys]

I’m putting in for an Any Bull tag finally again. I drew an any bull tag back in 2000 and my dad has yet to draw. The only reason I’m putting in again is to hopefully better his odds. With my 8 points I’m hoping to help him draw the tag finally. Can’t remember the year this stupid draw started but he has that many points.


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Uh.... they average your points so you will drop his chances if you go in as a group ?? or does he only have less than 8 points ?

[Bob33]

I’m putting in for an Any Bull tag finally again. I drew an any bull tag back in 2000 and my dad has yet to draw. The only reason I’m putting in again is to hopefully better his odds. With my 8 points I’m hoping to help him draw the tag finally. Can’t remember the year this stupid draw started but he has that many points.


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The draw system started in 1996. If he has acquired a point every year since 1996, he has more than 8 points and should have around 23.. Putting in as a group with you hurts his chances because a group with members that have 23 and 8 points would go into the draw with 16 points.

[Dan-o]

 


He's better off putting in by himself.

You can always help if he draws.....   But you hurt his chances.

[Karl Blanchard]

Regardless of points, most of the time, applying as a group does not help odds. Especially if there are a low number of permits for that particular hunt

[vandeman17]

Regardless of points, most of the time, applying as a group does not help odds. Especially if there are a low number of permits for that particular hunt

  Even if the applicants both have same amount of points, by applying as a pair you are basically taking away one possible tag, as a trio you take away two etc.