GoHunt for Washington is live

[cougforester]

Are the odds only for quality buck and bull or the buck and bull categories as well?

Looks like just Quality.

[Stein]

It's hard to tell, they are all mixed together.

I did notice some guy with 45 points applied for a quality bull tag and didn't draw.  Odds were only 25%. 

[eburgtrapper]

Ridgerunner, it is both quality and bull. You just have to know how to distinguish them by season dates.

Mountain View 300+ trophy potential 😂

[dreamingbig]

So, I looked up my sheep draw, odds with 24 points is 0.12%.  Here is where the points creep comes in.  The odds of drawing if you have 24 points has been going down every year.

2018 - .12%
2017 - .18%
2016 - .22%

Thus, your odds of drawing have roughly gone down by half in three years even though you have more points and they are squared.  This is what many have said, your odds get worse every year even though we think they get better because we have more points.

If you had 24 points and point creep magically stops, you only need to apply for 46 more years to have a 50-50 chance of drawing the tag any time in those 46 additional years.  Given point creep, it may be 50-60 years to have even odds.

Other fun stuff to be found:  tags given in the elk unit I want in the last three years are 15, 10 and 5 last year.  Nice trend.  My odds there are .14% unless the tags are reduced again, which they are proposing.

OK, rant off, I'm done.  I was thinking about sticking in with quality elk and dropping everything else (deer, other elk, moose, sheep, goat and bear).  The odds makes it easy to drop elk and be done with the system.  So, the odds for you guys drawing will bump up this year as my points won't be polluting your buckets.

Yep with bonus points being squared you can’t keep up.  Add in tag numbers going down and it is nothing more than a money maker:

I would vote for throwing all bonus points in the trash tomorrow and go 100% random.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dreamingbig]

I am a GoHunt member for other states.  I am not sure who wrote the unit descriptions for them but they are very comical.

I appreciated the opportunity to laugh though. 😀


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Igor]

It's hard to tell, they are all mixed together.

I did notice some guy with 45 points applied for a quality bull tag and didn't draw.  Odds were only 25%. 

How is it possible to have 45 quality bull points?

[cem3434]

Turning in poachers.

[Stein]

Yep with bonus points being squared you can’t keep up.  Add in tag numbers going down and it is nothing more than a money maker:

I would vote for throwing all bonus points in the trash tomorrow and go 100% random.

The funny part is the guys that would fight that are the very ones that would benefit most - those with high points.  It's one of the best scams around.  There are probably a good percentage that realize they won't draw an OIL, but I don't think there are many that understand where the quality tags are and how much worse it gets every year.  A big chunk of the good draws are seeing insane cuts in the tags and with nothing being done to recover those herds, I'm not sure how they will ever go back up.

[blackveltbowhunter]

Washington will never get rid of points. They have to keep everyone on the hamster wheel. Ten years ago I was saying increase the price of permit apps rather than splitting categories. But my worst fear has been realized and rather than doing their job and maintaining a quality product that folks continue to buy into, they just sell you a "point". Every other western state with a point system will see this as well. As herds become more stressed and hunters continue to chase the biggest bucks and bulls.  Hunters aren't buying hunts anymore, they are buying points. Its much easier to sell a point than manage a quality deer or elk herd.

[Stein]

True statement, all point based systems are doomed.  The only difference is that in WA, residents have nonresident odds already.  The odds of pulling a top tier tag in WA are less than most of the nonresident odds for truly amazing tags in the other states.

Hopefully the few states without points manage to stay that way.  I would think enough smart people can see the train wreck that points have become and fend off the temptation.  Once you go points, there is no way to go back as people are generally not good with math.

[blackveltbowhunter]

 

   I have noticed a trend in educating and encouraging hunters not to fall for the points system. Hopefully this gains even more momentum and traction moving forward. The funny thing is it seems the past few years its not the hunters that have pushed the points, ( my guess is enough have been educated over the last couple decades) but the game commisions and state legislations in these states looking to make their jobs easier.

[buglebrush]

100% agree on abolishing points.  Anyone who argues with this simply cannot comprehend math. 

What would truly up our odds is making you pick a category to apply in rather than applying for everything.  But we know WDFW will never do that because they don't give a care about hunters only their money.

[Magnum_Willys]

.14% means you draw every 714 years without point creep.  Hmmmm

[Mr Mykiss]

Indeed.
Even if the odds stayed at 1% for 100 years...your odds of drawing once in 100 years are still much less than 100%

[dreamingbig]

100% agree on abolishing points.  Anyone who argues with this simply cannot comprehend math. 

What would truly up our odds is making you pick a category to apply in rather than applying for everything.  But we know WDFW will never do that because they don't give a care about hunters only their money.

Yup.  Or simply wont allow themselves to believe the facts.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk