GoHunt for Washington is live

[Stein]

Quick glance it looks like they are using the wrong data for 2018.

There was an earlier thread on here that noted how the total applicants in all the hunts/categories was showing huge increases on WDFW website...but then WDFW corrected it...well, appears GoHunt fellas are using that old, incorrect data.

What this means...the odds are all wrong...instead of .0005% chance of drawing many of the premium tags, it should really be .0006%. 

Did you shoot them an email?  They are usually quick to fix problems.


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[sagerat]

Definitely not worth it for Washington. For that matter, I’m not sure it’s worth it at all. I’ve had no trouble finding that info on the different states websites. Sometimes you have to dig a little but it’s there, for free. Everyone seems to be all excited about Gohunt though like they provide some magical access to info. Maybe some states I haven’t researched don’t offer the info? I had Gohunt when they offered the free trial but wasn’t really that impressed.

[KFhunter]

The other thing to remember is these are all based on last years tag allocations.  Some units may have far fewer tags available this year.


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It's all downhill from here.

[OltHunter]

@Stein - yes I did.  Though that is a complete data overhaul, so I would guess they would just take it down.  And with the new WDFW site, I can't find the by point breakouts anymore, so they may be SOL for a while.

Based on last year tag allocations and for some reason they don't project all point options, so if someone with 16 points didn't apply, there won't be any odds.

There are lots of $50 gift card promos floating around if someone it at all interested.  They have free 30 day trails running throughout the year, but if only for WA, not worth it IMHO as other's had said.

If you are trying to plan out multiple state's strategies over a couple of year timelines, then the value starts to creep in.  Along with slim chance of winning a monthly giveaway.

[idahohuntr]

Quick glance it looks like they are using the wrong data for 2018.

There was an earlier thread on here that noted how the total applicants in all the hunts/categories was showing huge increases on WDFW website...but then WDFW corrected it...well, appears GoHunt fellas are using that old, incorrect data.

What this means...the odds are all wrong...instead of .0005% chance of drawing many of the premium tags, it should really be .0006%. 

Did you shoot them an email?  They are usually quick to fix problems.


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I did.  They are aware and working it...but sounds like they are experiencing the level of service and accountability so many of us are familiar with when it comes to WDFW 

[Caseyd]

Quick glance it looks like they are using the wrong data for 2018.

There was an earlier thread on here that noted how the total applicants in all the hunts/categories was showing huge increases on WDFW website...but then WDFW corrected it...well, appears GoHunt fellas are using that old, incorrect data.

What this means...the odds are all wrong...instead of .0005% chance of drawing many of the premium tags, it should really be .0006%. 

Did you shoot them an email?  They are usually quick to fix problems.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I did.  They are aware and working it...but sounds like they are experiencing the level of service and accountability so many of us are familiar with when it comes to WDFW 

Even worse I’m sure. Will result in lost revenues

[Stein]

The way it works is you pay GoHunt $150 and then save at least that by not applying in WA.  You come out even and then have the subscription to find better options elsewhere.


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[KFhunter]

The way it works is you pay GoHunt $150 and then save at least that by not applying in WA.  You come out even and then have the subscription to find better options elsewhere.


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BUT BUT BUT!      WHAT ABOUT MY INVESTMENT!!


         

[Twispriver]

Because Washington is completely random, without any preference for how many points you have, I wonder if it is even possible to predict odds for drawing. If last year 10 hunters with 20 points put in for Unit X and 5 drew permits that would be posted as 50% draw odds. This year if 10 hunters put in maybe none of them get drawn - or all of them get drawn. If there was a ten-year average maybe that would show a trend but random is random.

[Mr Mykiss]

If you have max points you have a 26% chance at a cowiche archery bull tag.

Hmmmmmm......

[Mr Mykiss]

Because Washington is completely random, without any preference for how many points you have, I wonder if it is even possible to predict odds for drawing. If last year 10 hunters with 20 points put in for Unit X and 5 drew permits that would be posted as 50% draw odds. This year if 10 hunters put in maybe none of them get drawn - or all of them get drawn. If there was a ten-year average maybe that would show a trend but random is random.

1. It’s dang near never that good at the top...ever
2. You’re thinking about calculating the percentage of a point group that drew, not the odds of one individual with a given number of points drawing

[Stein]

So, I looked up my sheep draw, odds with 24 points is 0.12%.  Here is where the points creep comes in.  The odds of drawing if you have 24 points has been going down every year.

2018 - .12%
2017 - .18%
2016 - .22%

Thus, your odds of drawing have roughly gone down by half in three years even though you have more points and they are squared.  This is what many have said, your odds get worse every year even though we think they get better because we have more points.

If you had 24 points and point creep magically stops, you only need to apply for 46 more years to have a 50-50 chance of drawing the tag any time in those 46 additional years.  Given point creep, it may be 50-60 years to have even odds.

Other fun stuff to be found:  tags given in the elk unit I want in the last three years are 15, 10 and 5 last year.  Nice trend.  My odds there are .14% unless the tags are reduced again, which they are proposing.

OK, rant off, I'm done.  I was thinking about sticking in with quality elk and dropping everything else (deer, other elk, moose, sheep, goat and bear).  The odds makes it easy to drop elk and be done with the system.  So, the odds for you guys drawing will bump up this year as my points won't be polluting your buckets.

[buglebrush]

So, I looked up my sheep draw, odds with 24 points is 0.12%.  Here is where the points creep comes in.  The odds of drawing if you have 24 points has been going down every year.

2018 - .12%
2017 - .18%
2016 - .22%

Thus, your odds of drawing have roughly gone down by half in three years even though you have more points and they are squared.  This is what many have said, your odds get worse every year even though we think they get better because we have more points.

If you had 24 points and point creep magically stops, you only need to apply for 46 more years to have a 50-50 chance of drawing the tag any time in those 46 additional years.  Given point creep, it may be 50-60 years to have even odds.

Other fun stuff to be found:  tags given in the elk unit I want in the last three years are 15, 10 and 5 last year.  Nice trend.  My odds there are .14% unless the tags are reduced again, which they are proposing.

OK, rant off, I'm done.  I was thinking about sticking in with quality elk and dropping everything else (deer, other elk, moose, sheep, goat and bear).  The odds makes it easy to drop elk and be done with the system.  So, the odds for you guys drawing will bump up this year as my points won't be polluting your buckets.

WDFW'S draw is completely aimed at revenue, not Hunter opportunity.  I've been done with WA for a while.  I'll spend my money applying in other Western States. 

[Ellensburg]

They put MT. View Elk at 300 inch trophy class.

Come on.... We all know the average bull there is 360+.

I listened to Rinella's podcast about it.

[Ridgerunner]

Are the odds only for quality buck and bull or the buck and bull categories as well?