study regs for my 2020 draw hunt

[Joseph wilcox]

I have been studying regs for my 2020 draw for bull elk. I'm going in with 22 pts. want to hunt eastern just because I refuse to pay the privet land fees on the west side. I notice a lot of the high submitted tags have been high for years and years and the elk numbers are just not what they use to be in those areas but people still put in for the same units?? I don't mind going in deep so if any suggestions would be great.

[trophyhunt]

The numbers are going down, you'll always get guys on here saying the bulls are everywhere you just have to find them.  Well, it's kinda true, they are there just not like they used to be.  Bull elk tags will be tougher to draw with the number of permits going down, you have lots of choices to choose from on the east side and I'd be willing to bet either one would be just like the other.  I'd stick with the central cascades like rimrock, little natches, bumping units.

[boneaddict]

There are big bulls in most of them. I suppose it depends if you want 23 points or to be drawn, and if drawn have you ever been there.  If you have never been there are you capable of discovering the unit yourself or depending on vAgue pms from members, or willing to pay for an outfitter.

[trophyhunt]

one nice thing about those units is that they are close for scouting.

[OltHunter]

With 22 points, another thing to plan is a back up plan.  Most likely, you will not draw a rifle tag.  Coin flip on a few archery hunts, probably not on the other archery hunts.  Muzzleloader about the same as rifle.

Watershed rifle is your only close shot, around 30% to draw.  Everything else is sub 10%

Archery coin flips are Observatory, Bethel, Rimrock, and Cowiche.  The rest are around 10-15%

Most muzzy are sub 10%

Just wanted to throw that out there.  Lots of hunters I don't think realize how hard it is to draw a bull tag in WA.  I'm not complaining, it is what it is, but just keep that in mind when planning.  You really can't plan to draw a WA eastside quality tag.

[Magnum_Willys]

i think Olts stated odds are generous with the reduced number of tags but his point is on the button - you have less than a 1 outa 10 chance of drawing a rifle tag even with 22 points and your odds will be worse next year.  Point creep!

[Buzz2401]

Look at the success rates of the Yakima area units for bull elk draw and you may find disappointment.  Most are below 30% and some are below 20%.  That's not very good and if you haven't hunted an area before that really makes it hard.  Lots of people eat bull tags that they have been putting in for for 10-20 years.  I'd learn an area real well before I blindly put in with that many points.

[Parasite]

I'd learn an area real well before I blindly put in with that many points.

Very smart piece of advice right there.

[adamR]

I'd like to know what units you are applying for with 10% odds.  Even without points factored in, most units are less than 1% odds.

I'd learn an area real well before I blindly put in with that many points.

Very smart piece of advice right there.

Yes and no.  As long as it takes to draw a permit, areas may be completely different by the time you draw.  The other problem is, if you know one area really well and focus your efforts there, why put in for multiple units?  If you did only put one unit on your application, you're likely to never draw.

My advice, take some time to drive a few units, determine if you like the area, and put in for it.  If you do ever get drawn, then concentrate your efforts on getting to know that unit.

[trophyhunt]

If you want a super tough guy hunt and better odds than most, put in for the watershed in the blues.

[OltHunter]

I'd like to know what units you are applying for with 10% odds.  Even without points factored in, most units are less than 1% odds.

Your statement is accurate sub about 8 points probably.

I said sub 10%.  I have a spreadsheet with some basic algos I've put together for odds.  With 22 points, quality rifle, there are 8 greater than or equal 10%, 28 <10%, 15 <= 5%, and only 2 <= 1%.

I take all the draw data with applications at points level, square those points x applications, add them all up to get the points pool.  Then use that to sim draws, subtracting the applicants points from pool for each tag drawn, which is pretty minimal.  Running this millions of times and factoring in groups apps, etc is not possible for me so i just take averages in a formula.

It's really impossible to accurately calculate odds, this just gives a good general basis and I've cross checked with gohunt's data and seems to be within there's, possibly better since I can plug in actual tag numbers for the current year instead of prior.

The odds improve slightly for muzzy, and much more for archery. 

Regardless of 10% vs 1%, in WA, you can't plan on drawing a quality rifle tag in the premiere units.  You shouldn't try to time it and only apply with the herd is doing well, etc.  You need to have your name in the hat every year. 

Just my 2 cents.

[jackelope]

If you want a super tough guy hunt and better odds than most, put in for the watershed in the blues.

I disagree. I think there are a lot better units in the state than the watershed in terms of quality of elk. There may be some quality bulls there, but the difficulty factor doesn't justify it for me.

[jackelope]

I'd like to know what units you are applying for with 10% odds.  Even without points factored in, most units are less than 1% odds.

Your statement is accurate sub about 8 points probably.

I said sub 10%.  I have a spreadsheet with some basic algos I've put together for odds.  With 22 points, quality rifle, there are 8 greater than or equal 10%, 28 <10%, 15 <= 5%, and only 2 <= 1%.

I take all the draw data with applications at points level, square those points x applications, add them all up to get the points pool.  Then use that to sim draws, subtracting the applicants points from pool for each tag drawn, which is pretty minimal.  Running this millions of times and factoring in groups apps, etc is not possible for me so i just take averages in a formula.

It's really impossible to accurately calculate odds, this just gives a good general basis and I've cross checked with gohunt's data and seems to be within there's, possibly better since I can plug in actual tag numbers for the current year instead of prior.

The odds improve slightly for muzzy, and much more for archery. 

Regardless of 10% vs 1%, in WA, you can't plan on drawing a quality rifle tag in the premiere units.  You shouldn't try to time it and only apply with the herd is doing well, etc.  You need to have your name in the hat every year. 

Just my 2 cents.

@Bob33
Is that accurate?

[jackelope]

I'd learn an area real well before I blindly put in with that many points.

I sort of disagree with this also.
I'd have a general idea what the terrain is like so you know that you can or can't handle it and what the quality of bulls is in an area, but I don't think I'd worry about learning an area real well. Lots of time to scout and learn the unit once you draw. Lots of resources to help along the learning process.
I believe a significant number of people are unsuccessful on quality permit hunts because they draw a tag and don't know what the country is like. They get down there and are completely overwhelmed and don't have the stones to handle it. A great example would be applying for the East Wenaha having never set foot in the Blues. You get down there and realize it's pretty much roadless and you have to hike miles in and miles out and the hills are pretty much cliffs. You get scared or intimidated and go home.
 
 

[Stein]

Yeah, the odds are not good even with a pile of points.  Since WA is a random draw, there is no "guaranteed" point level where you can draw.  Even if you have max points, it's still a random draw.  I like to think of it as a lottery, you can still buy a bunch of Powerball tickets and have horrible odds.

Dayton is probably one of the most popular quality hunts, with 22 points your odds were 4% last year.  Another way to put that is it will take about 12-15 more years of applying every year until you have a 50/50 shot at drawing the tag.  Since it took 22 years to get 22 points, that means if you haven't drawn yet, you are looking at at least 35 years of applying before you have a 50-50 chance!  It will actually be worse than that because the odds will go below 4% in future years due to point creep and probable reductions in tags.

I'm not sure how much value there is in studying and scouting for 35 years to draw a tag, I guess if that is your thing it's great.  For me, the odds are low and I would rather spend my summers fishing, so if I was to draw I would figure it out then.  But, I don't buy into the broken system that is poorly managed so even that is a moot point.

$15.68 * 35 = $548.80 for a 50-50 shot, or $2,565 if you count the elk license and don't hunt it.  I would rather chip in a bit more and have a 100% chance of going out of state and only have to wait a year or two.

If I had 22 points, I would look for a second tier tag where people that have 22 points are not likely to apply and go for that.  You can get much better odds if you lower the standard a bit and actually draw a tag and go hunting.  There are several places to get that info, some for free.  Another option would be to go with muzzy or better yet archery, but many people are making that switch every year for the same reason.

If you use Gohunt, there are three units with odds >= 20% and trophy potential of 300", I would start there and hopefully one of those would give you what you are looking for.