study regs for my 2020 draw hunt

[Joseph wilcox]

I have been studying regs for my 2020 draw for bull elk. I'm going in with 22 pts. want to hunt eastern just because I refuse to pay the privet land fees on the west side. I notice a lot of the high submitted tags have been high for years and years and the elk numbers are just not what they use to be in those areas but people still put in for the same units?? I don't mind going in deep so if any suggestions would be great.

[trophyhunt]

The numbers are going down, you'll always get guys on here saying the bulls are everywhere you just have to find them.  Well, it's kinda true, they are there just not like they used to be.  Bull elk tags will be tougher to draw with the number of permits going down, you have lots of choices to choose from on the east side and I'd be willing to bet either one would be just like the other.  I'd stick with the central cascades like rimrock, little natches, bumping units.

[boneaddict]

There are big bulls in most of them. I suppose it depends if you want 23 points or to be drawn, and if drawn have you ever been there.  If you have never been there are you capable of discovering the unit yourself or depending on vAgue pms from members, or willing to pay for an outfitter.

[trophyhunt]

one nice thing about those units is that they are close for scouting.

[OltHunter]

With 22 points, another thing to plan is a back up plan.  Most likely, you will not draw a rifle tag.  Coin flip on a few archery hunts, probably not on the other archery hunts.  Muzzleloader about the same as rifle.

Watershed rifle is your only close shot, around 30% to draw.  Everything else is sub 10%

Archery coin flips are Observatory, Bethel, Rimrock, and Cowiche.  The rest are around 10-15%

Most muzzy are sub 10%

Just wanted to throw that out there.  Lots of hunters I don't think realize how hard it is to draw a bull tag in WA.  I'm not complaining, it is what it is, but just keep that in mind when planning.  You really can't plan to draw a WA eastside quality tag.

[Magnum_Willys]

i think Olts stated odds are generous with the reduced number of tags but his point is on the button - you have less than a 1 outa 10 chance of drawing a rifle tag even with 22 points and your odds will be worse next year.  Point creep!

[Buzz2401]

Look at the success rates of the Yakima area units for bull elk draw and you may find disappointment.  Most are below 30% and some are below 20%.  That's not very good and if you haven't hunted an area before that really makes it hard.  Lots of people eat bull tags that they have been putting in for for 10-20 years.  I'd learn an area real well before I blindly put in with that many points.

[Parasite]

I'd learn an area real well before I blindly put in with that many points.

Very smart piece of advice right there.

[adamR]

I'd like to know what units you are applying for with 10% odds.  Even without points factored in, most units are less than 1% odds.

I'd learn an area real well before I blindly put in with that many points.

Very smart piece of advice right there.

Yes and no.  As long as it takes to draw a permit, areas may be completely different by the time you draw.  The other problem is, if you know one area really well and focus your efforts there, why put in for multiple units?  If you did only put one unit on your application, you're likely to never draw.

My advice, take some time to drive a few units, determine if you like the area, and put in for it.  If you do ever get drawn, then concentrate your efforts on getting to know that unit.

[trophyhunt]

If you want a super tough guy hunt and better odds than most, put in for the watershed in the blues.

[OltHunter]

I'd like to know what units you are applying for with 10% odds.  Even without points factored in, most units are less than 1% odds.

Your statement is accurate sub about 8 points probably.

I said sub 10%.  I have a spreadsheet with some basic algos I've put together for odds.  With 22 points, quality rifle, there are 8 greater than or equal 10%, 28 <10%, 15 <= 5%, and only 2 <= 1%.

I take all the draw data with applications at points level, square those points x applications, add them all up to get the points pool.  Then use that to sim draws, subtracting the applicants points from pool for each tag drawn, which is pretty minimal.  Running this millions of times and factoring in groups apps, etc is not possible for me so i just take averages in a formula.

It's really impossible to accurately calculate odds, this just gives a good general basis and I've cross checked with gohunt's data and seems to be within there's, possibly better since I can plug in actual tag numbers for the current year instead of prior.

The odds improve slightly for muzzy, and much more for archery. 

Regardless of 10% vs 1%, in WA, you can't plan on drawing a quality rifle tag in the premiere units.  You shouldn't try to time it and only apply with the herd is doing well, etc.  You need to have your name in the hat every year. 

Just my 2 cents.

[jackelope]

If you want a super tough guy hunt and better odds than most, put in for the watershed in the blues.

I disagree. I think there are a lot better units in the state than the watershed in terms of quality of elk. There may be some quality bulls there, but the difficulty factor doesn't justify it for me.

[jackelope]

I'd like to know what units you are applying for with 10% odds.  Even without points factored in, most units are less than 1% odds.

Your statement is accurate sub about 8 points probably.

I said sub 10%.  I have a spreadsheet with some basic algos I've put together for odds.  With 22 points, quality rifle, there are 8 greater than or equal 10%, 28 <10%, 15 <= 5%, and only 2 <= 1%.

I take all the draw data with applications at points level, square those points x applications, add them all up to get the points pool.  Then use that to sim draws, subtracting the applicants points from pool for each tag drawn, which is pretty minimal.  Running this millions of times and factoring in groups apps, etc is not possible for me so i just take averages in a formula.

It's really impossible to accurately calculate odds, this just gives a good general basis and I've cross checked with gohunt's data and seems to be within there's, possibly better since I can plug in actual tag numbers for the current year instead of prior.

The odds improve slightly for muzzy, and much more for archery. 

Regardless of 10% vs 1%, in WA, you can't plan on drawing a quality rifle tag in the premiere units.  You shouldn't try to time it and only apply with the herd is doing well, etc.  You need to have your name in the hat every year. 

Just my 2 cents.

@Bob33
Is that accurate?

[jackelope]

I'd learn an area real well before I blindly put in with that many points.

I sort of disagree with this also.
I'd have a general idea what the terrain is like so you know that you can or can't handle it and what the quality of bulls is in an area, but I don't think I'd worry about learning an area real well. Lots of time to scout and learn the unit once you draw. Lots of resources to help along the learning process.
I believe a significant number of people are unsuccessful on quality permit hunts because they draw a tag and don't know what the country is like. They get down there and are completely overwhelmed and don't have the stones to handle it. A great example would be applying for the East Wenaha having never set foot in the Blues. You get down there and realize it's pretty much roadless and you have to hike miles in and miles out and the hills are pretty much cliffs. You get scared or intimidated and go home.
 
 

[Stein]

Yeah, the odds are not good even with a pile of points.  Since WA is a random draw, there is no "guaranteed" point level where you can draw.  Even if you have max points, it's still a random draw.  I like to think of it as a lottery, you can still buy a bunch of Powerball tickets and have horrible odds.

Dayton is probably one of the most popular quality hunts, with 22 points your odds were 4% last year.  Another way to put that is it will take about 12-15 more years of applying every year until you have a 50/50 shot at drawing the tag.  Since it took 22 years to get 22 points, that means if you haven't drawn yet, you are looking at at least 35 years of applying before you have a 50-50 chance!  It will actually be worse than that because the odds will go below 4% in future years due to point creep and probable reductions in tags.

I'm not sure how much value there is in studying and scouting for 35 years to draw a tag, I guess if that is your thing it's great.  For me, the odds are low and I would rather spend my summers fishing, so if I was to draw I would figure it out then.  But, I don't buy into the broken system that is poorly managed so even that is a moot point.

$15.68 * 35 = $548.80 for a 50-50 shot, or $2,565 if you count the elk license and don't hunt it.  I would rather chip in a bit more and have a 100% chance of going out of state and only have to wait a year or two.

If I had 22 points, I would look for a second tier tag where people that have 22 points are not likely to apply and go for that.  You can get much better odds if you lower the standard a bit and actually draw a tag and go hunting.  There are several places to get that info, some for free.  Another option would be to go with muzzy or better yet archery, but many people are making that switch every year for the same reason.

If you use Gohunt, there are three units with odds >= 20% and trophy potential of 300", I would start there and hopefully one of those would give you what you are looking for.

[boneaddict]

That really puts it into perspective.

[OltHunter]

If you use Gohunt, there are three units with odds >= 20% and trophy potential of 300", I would start there and hopefully one of those would give you what you are looking for.

GoHunt is based on 2018 tags, so the Goose Prairie that shows up on that filter, is not 22% anymore.  And if there wasn't a person with 22 points, it won't show odds. 

A major limitation for GoHunt, at least for WA in my opinion.  I am a member and fan though in full disclosure! 

[Stein]

True, you never know how many people will apply for any given tag, so everything is backward looking.  You can look at this year's tag allotment and make some educated guesses using the applications from last year, but the value in it is that it shows you what the true odds were and you can go from there.

It does a great job showing you what the true odds were vs simple calculations that other pubs use that are way, way off.  It would show a guy whether he could have a good chance at drawing a tag in 1-3 years vs. 15-20 vs. never.

When WDFW cuts tags 75% in some of the good units, that changes the math considerably though.  I would divide the odds from last year by 4 to get closer to actual for next year if that happens again.

Either way, with a bunch of points your options are to shoot for the moon knowing you will likely be buried with the points or lower your expectations and actually plan on a hunt within 5 years.

[OltHunter]

  Exactly - well said.

I didn't mean to sidetrack the post about points - but I think what I wanted to throw out there for the OP has been detailed well enough.

[Bob33]

This is how I try to estimate draw odds for elk permits.

I start with this file which provides applications by point level for each elk permit hunt in 2019:
https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2019-09/2019%20Quality%20Elk%20drawing%20results%20by%20hunt%20number.pdf

Next, look up the particular hunt in question. I will use the Dayton Modern elk permit hunt # 2005 as an example.

There were applications with point levels from 1 to 24, and also one application with 27 points.

The next step is to compute “names in the hat” for each level, and sum them up. The one application with 27 points would have 27 x 27 x 1 = 729 names in the hat. There were 2 applications with 24 points: that adds 24 x 24 x 2 = 1,152 names to the hat. Continue the math for all point levels, and sum them up.

There was a total of 79,468 names in the hat for this hunt.

An application with 22 points has 484 names in the hat. For each permit the application with 22 points has a 484 in 79,468 (.61% or 1 in 164) chance to be drawn.

There were six permits available. The chance of getting one of the six permits is approximately 3.6% based on my assumptions and calculations.

This approach has some assumptions and there are some variables which cannot be computed. For example, an application with two choices will have an entry in both permits and thus get double-counted since it can draw only one. That information isn't publicly available.

The progression in points from one level to the next does improve “names in the hat”, but the effect diminishes as the point level increases. For instance the application with one point has one name in the hat. The following year the same application has two points and thus four names in the hat: a 300% increase. The application with 22 points has 484 names in the hat; with 23 points the application has 529 names in the hat; an increase of only 9%. Since there are typically more applications in the lower points levels, their movement from one level to the next tends to overcome the small advantage that comes from moving up one level in the 20s. Simply put, the application with two points has a better chance to draw than it did the year before with one point. However, the application with 23 points may have the same or even a slightly less chance of being drawn than it did the year before with 22 points. The application with 23 points will still have a better chance of being drawn than an application with 22 points, however.

The quality permit odds improve from astronomically low with one point, to still relatively low with maximum points. That’s just the way it is.

Only one fact is certain: the odds of drawing if you don’t apply are zero.

[OltHunter]

almost exact same approach.  Except I go off the applicants, so I have a little bigger pool and try to factor in a bit of the group apps getting selecting and dropping the tags.

The unbolded Draw% is just a simulated point pool projection I do for next year's draw, just for fun.

[Rainier10]

Tag.  I was at the draw this year and will come back and post how it really works with the odds.  You guys are close but I think off a little.  I will get back when I have more time to dig in and explain it.

[stickbuck]

I thought I had the draw odds calculations down until my good buddy mp.hunter attended the draws years ago. It was great opportunity to see how the draws were really run. It pretty much threw a wrench into my calculation that I thought was pretty accurate. What a lot of people don’t understand is that everyone in the “quality elk” permit category for example are all lumped together regardless of the weapon you are going to be hunting with. Every one in the “quality elk” category is assigned a number and the draw starts at the top of the list and works down until all permits have been given out. I could go into a little, but this pretty much lays it out correctly.


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[jstone]

Crap.

[OltHunter]

Yep, that was my understanding. You can't really calculate that exactly without a PhD algorithm and computer program to assign numbers, run down the list, and give tags out. Run that millions of times and then you got your odds.

First VS second choice also throws issues into the mix.

I use my/bob33 method to get a ballpark of odds and mainly to compare which units I theoretically have a better chance of drawing or not. If something shows 50%, I'm not thinking it's a true coin flip, but a better chance than say something that shows 10%.

[boneaddict]

I'm not sure NASA could do much better than "...Your odds suck....."

[idahohuntr]

The methods Bob33 describes is close enough for me.  Trying to get any more precise than knowing if a hunt is .1%, 1%, 10% odds is really not worth the effort given  how much variability there can be in tag numbers and applicant distribution in any year.  Knowing orders of magnitude odds and how units odds stack up in a relative sense is really the best way to look at odds information in this state as you make your application decisions.   

[Stein]

There are two likely outcomes:

Draw Not Run

and

Not Selected

[Bob33]

There are two likely outcomes:

Draw Not Run

and

Not Selected

Don't  forget "Redraw."

[Rainier10]

I thought I had the draw odds calculations down until my good buddy mp.hunter attended the draws years ago. It was great opportunity to see how the draws were really run. It pretty much threw a wrench into my calculation that I thought was pretty accurate. What a lot of people don’t understand is that everyone in the “quality elk” permit category for example are all lumped together regardless of the weapon you are going to be hunting with. Every one in the “quality elk” category is assigned a number and the draw starts at the top of the list and works down until all permits have been given out. I could go into a little, but this pretty much lays it out correctly.


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This is correct.

If you have one point for quality elk your name goes into the hat once. If you have three points your name goes on nine times. If you have ten points your name goes in 100.  All of the names, archery, muzzy and modern all go in the same hat. Then they draw. If your name comes out first you get number one. If your name comes out again it doesn’t matter you are number one. Archery guys can have numbers 1-10 snd then a rifle guy gets number 11 he gets his first rifle choice because no rifle guys are in front of him. If you are the 13 person in line with an archery tag and all of the permits you wanted have filled you get nothing but your points back and person 14 may get their first choice if it’s still available.

 Applicants for a particular permit don’t play a huge affect total people applying for quality elk and how many points they have plays a bigger role in my mind

The entire thing gets done in the same way for antlerless elk and so on and so on.

[Stein]

Also factor in second and third choices, that's where the math gets tricky.  WA goes applicant to applicant, so your lower choices could matter a bunch.  Other states go through all 1st choices and then move to 2nd.....

Either way, if they drop 75% of the tags, we are fighting for scraps.  If they do that for several years in a row with no plan or any information at all, they have a term for those of us that keep buying licenses.

[Joseph wilcox]

Ya stein I believe your correct. As I drew the colockum rife tag last year had never been there before. BUT I scouted many times in the summer and put 10 full days in prior the hunt I did learn the area very well probably just as good as some people that had been hunting for years, BUT that came along with lots of help from people from this forum pointing me in areas to learn witch made me have a successful hunt. It took 22 pt. for that drawing as well, so I know my odds are low for the bull tag going in with 23 pts but after being drawn last year my hopes are high. ill be almost 60 if I get drawn but still have the drive to go in deep that's were the fun is.

[trophyhunt]

If you want a super tough guy hunt and better odds than most, put in for the watershed in the blues.

I disagree. I think there are a lot better units in the state than the watershed in terms of quality of elk. There may be some quality bulls there, but the difficulty factor doesn't justify it for me.

I didn't say the quality of elk is better in the shed, he would just have a better chance at drawing.  I do feel there are some real good bulls in there though, but that hunt is for real tough.

[OltHunter]

 

i have a buddy that only puts in for that hunt.  Best combination of odds and quality bulls.  Possibly one of the toughest elk in the state though, which limits the applicants. 

And to piggy back on the never setting foot in a unit you apply for, I do that all the time.  With family obligations and work, you can't set foot in everything you want to.  With online resources, maps, forums, etc you can pick a unit apart to narrow down your access points, areas you want to focus on and places you think will hold game, then scout out those areas to limit down your final spots. 

There is nothing wrong with putting in for units you've never been too.  When drawn, you just need to put in the extra effort to escout it and get out a few weekends or a few days to scout.  Places really far away, like AZ or WY, I most likely will never set foot in the unit prior to being drawn or ever scout it prior to my hunt dates....if I ever actually get drawn!

I feel once you got it e-scouted and areas located, you can knock off some and narrow down everything in 2 days to be successful.  Planning a 7 day hunt, that leaves 5 days of good hunting.  To be honest, that sort of adds to the excitement and adventure of the hunt, never seeing it before.  It adds a layer of challenge I enjoy as well.  There is also something to be said scouting something months/weeks in advance as weather & pressure can really change things.  Scouting during your hunt is always an option.  You just need to have the flexibility to add a few days to your trip.

Also don't limit yourself to a pack in trip when you haven't been there before where you can cover a few miles.  Probably best to spike camp out in a spot where you can drive to multiple different spots within 20 to 30 miles.  Then you can settle on a spot if you feel the need to pack a camp in then.  Have a backup plan, a backup backup plan, and then a backup backup backup plan, then maybe 1 or 2 more!  Don't put all your cards in 1 spot when no boots to the ground can take place, that is my advice.