study regs for my 2020 draw hunt

[boneaddict]

That really puts it into perspective.

[OltHunter]

If you use Gohunt, there are three units with odds >= 20% and trophy potential of 300", I would start there and hopefully one of those would give you what you are looking for.

GoHunt is based on 2018 tags, so the Goose Prairie that shows up on that filter, is not 22% anymore.  And if there wasn't a person with 22 points, it won't show odds. 

A major limitation for GoHunt, at least for WA in my opinion.  I am a member and fan though in full disclosure! 

[Stein]

True, you never know how many people will apply for any given tag, so everything is backward looking.  You can look at this year's tag allotment and make some educated guesses using the applications from last year, but the value in it is that it shows you what the true odds were and you can go from there.

It does a great job showing you what the true odds were vs simple calculations that other pubs use that are way, way off.  It would show a guy whether he could have a good chance at drawing a tag in 1-3 years vs. 15-20 vs. never.

When WDFW cuts tags 75% in some of the good units, that changes the math considerably though.  I would divide the odds from last year by 4 to get closer to actual for next year if that happens again.

Either way, with a bunch of points your options are to shoot for the moon knowing you will likely be buried with the points or lower your expectations and actually plan on a hunt within 5 years.

[OltHunter]

  Exactly - well said.

I didn't mean to sidetrack the post about points - but I think what I wanted to throw out there for the OP has been detailed well enough.

[Bob33]

This is how I try to estimate draw odds for elk permits.

I start with this file which provides applications by point level for each elk permit hunt in 2019:
https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2019-09/2019%20Quality%20Elk%20drawing%20results%20by%20hunt%20number.pdf

Next, look up the particular hunt in question. I will use the Dayton Modern elk permit hunt # 2005 as an example.

There were applications with point levels from 1 to 24, and also one application with 27 points.

The next step is to compute “names in the hat” for each level, and sum them up. The one application with 27 points would have 27 x 27 x 1 = 729 names in the hat. There were 2 applications with 24 points: that adds 24 x 24 x 2 = 1,152 names to the hat. Continue the math for all point levels, and sum them up.

There was a total of 79,468 names in the hat for this hunt.

An application with 22 points has 484 names in the hat. For each permit the application with 22 points has a 484 in 79,468 (.61% or 1 in 164) chance to be drawn.

There were six permits available. The chance of getting one of the six permits is approximately 3.6% based on my assumptions and calculations.

This approach has some assumptions and there are some variables which cannot be computed. For example, an application with two choices will have an entry in both permits and thus get double-counted since it can draw only one. That information isn't publicly available.

The progression in points from one level to the next does improve “names in the hat”, but the effect diminishes as the point level increases. For instance the application with one point has one name in the hat. The following year the same application has two points and thus four names in the hat: a 300% increase. The application with 22 points has 484 names in the hat; with 23 points the application has 529 names in the hat; an increase of only 9%. Since there are typically more applications in the lower points levels, their movement from one level to the next tends to overcome the small advantage that comes from moving up one level in the 20s. Simply put, the application with two points has a better chance to draw than it did the year before with one point. However, the application with 23 points may have the same or even a slightly less chance of being drawn than it did the year before with 22 points. The application with 23 points will still have a better chance of being drawn than an application with 22 points, however.

The quality permit odds improve from astronomically low with one point, to still relatively low with maximum points. That’s just the way it is.

Only one fact is certain: the odds of drawing if you don’t apply are zero.

[OltHunter]

almost exact same approach.  Except I go off the applicants, so I have a little bigger pool and try to factor in a bit of the group apps getting selecting and dropping the tags.

The unbolded Draw% is just a simulated point pool projection I do for next year's draw, just for fun.

[Rainier10]

Tag.  I was at the draw this year and will come back and post how it really works with the odds.  You guys are close but I think off a little.  I will get back when I have more time to dig in and explain it.

[stickbuck]

I thought I had the draw odds calculations down until my good buddy mp.hunter attended the draws years ago. It was great opportunity to see how the draws were really run. It pretty much threw a wrench into my calculation that I thought was pretty accurate. What a lot of people don’t understand is that everyone in the “quality elk” permit category for example are all lumped together regardless of the weapon you are going to be hunting with. Every one in the “quality elk” category is assigned a number and the draw starts at the top of the list and works down until all permits have been given out. I could go into a little, but this pretty much lays it out correctly.


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[jstone]

Crap.

[OltHunter]

Yep, that was my understanding. You can't really calculate that exactly without a PhD algorithm and computer program to assign numbers, run down the list, and give tags out. Run that millions of times and then you got your odds.

First VS second choice also throws issues into the mix.

I use my/bob33 method to get a ballpark of odds and mainly to compare which units I theoretically have a better chance of drawing or not. If something shows 50%, I'm not thinking it's a true coin flip, but a better chance than say something that shows 10%.

[boneaddict]

I'm not sure NASA could do much better than "...Your odds suck....."

[idahohuntr]

The methods Bob33 describes is close enough for me.  Trying to get any more precise than knowing if a hunt is .1%, 1%, 10% odds is really not worth the effort given  how much variability there can be in tag numbers and applicant distribution in any year.  Knowing orders of magnitude odds and how units odds stack up in a relative sense is really the best way to look at odds information in this state as you make your application decisions.   

[Stein]

There are two likely outcomes:

Draw Not Run

and

Not Selected

[Bob33]

There are two likely outcomes:

Draw Not Run

and

Not Selected

Don't  forget "Redraw."

[Rainier10]

I thought I had the draw odds calculations down until my good buddy mp.hunter attended the draws years ago. It was great opportunity to see how the draws were really run. It pretty much threw a wrench into my calculation that I thought was pretty accurate. What a lot of people don’t understand is that everyone in the “quality elk” permit category for example are all lumped together regardless of the weapon you are going to be hunting with. Every one in the “quality elk” category is assigned a number and the draw starts at the top of the list and works down until all permits have been given out. I could go into a little, but this pretty much lays it out correctly.


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This is correct.

If you have one point for quality elk your name goes into the hat once. If you have three points your name goes on nine times. If you have ten points your name goes in 100.  All of the names, archery, muzzy and modern all go in the same hat. Then they draw. If your name comes out first you get number one. If your name comes out again it doesn’t matter you are number one. Archery guys can have numbers 1-10 snd then a rifle guy gets number 11 he gets his first rifle choice because no rifle guys are in front of him. If you are the 13 person in line with an archery tag and all of the permits you wanted have filled you get nothing but your points back and person 14 may get their first choice if it’s still available.

 Applicants for a particular permit don’t play a huge affect total people applying for quality elk and how many points they have plays a bigger role in my mind

The entire thing gets done in the same way for antlerless elk and so on and so on.