Montana Draw Odds Update on Gohunt

[mburrows]

Anybody seen this yet? Doesnt make a ton of sense to me but its saying your odds of drawing the big game combo tag are lower with 1 point than they would be with 0 points the way the state allocates tags.  Trying to wrap my around it... Per Gohunt, based on last year's applicants numbers you have a 35% chance of drawing the big game combo with 1 point and a 71% chance of drawing with zero points.

This is due to such an influx of new applicants into the draw and fact 75% of tags go to preference point holders and 25% of tags go to people without preference points.  If the 25% went unfilled, they went back into the preference point pool. 

I think is what its saying is they project far fewer people with zero preference points to apply than people with preference points. 

Also the cost of a preference point went up to $100 from $50.

[jjhunter]

What are the odds for 2 points?

[mburrows]

>99% with 2 points and 100% with 3 points.

This is all based on last years applicant numbers but still, interesting and not awesome for a guy with one preference such as myself.

[jstone]

I will be purchasing just preference points this year. Do you think it will slow any time soon

[jstone]

Took us two points to draw last year

[Brushbuster]

There is a new variable that begins this yr. If you are booked with an outfitter you can buy 2 pp but if you are DIY you can only buy one. Thinking tags will be much more difficult to draw from this yr forward. 

[Karl Blanchard]

New this year also is you will lose your PP if you go consecutive years without applying. Previously you could buy points for 2 years without applying.

[jjhunter]

New this year also is you will lose your PP if you go consecutive years without applying. Previously you could buy points for 2 years without applying.

I don’t think that’s new….I lost mine a couple years ago when I didn’t apply?

[nwhunter]

One other thing about Montana I didn't realize until last year is if you chose to not buy the combo if you do not draw your bull permit you lose your points also.. The last few years I had applied for the combo and bought a point but asked for the refund if I didn't draw my bull permit. I assumed I would accrue a point each of these years but not so....

[Karl Blanchard]

New this year also is you will lose your PP if you go consecutive years without applying. Previously you could buy points for 2 years without applying.

I don’t think that’s new….I lost mine a couple years ago when I didn’t apply?

prior to this year you would lose them on year 3. So you could buy two but if you didn't apply on year 3 you lost them.

[Dan-o]

So, I've got 0 PPs.

Am I really better off than the guys with 1 PP?

[Karl Blanchard]

2021...

[Karl Blanchard]

2022...

[huntnnw]

those odds have been available for 2 months .

[grundy53]

I was looking at the odds today. Definitely confusing that 0 points has higher odds of drawing than 1 point.

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[huntnnw]

Deer and elk separately also have higher odds with 0 points

[Dan-o]

What are the projected odds for deer with 0 points, and am I better off buying the point or not?

[huntnnw]

Last year

[dreamingbig]

 But then this and a lot of other posts happened… who knows what the odds for 2022 will be now!


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[Karl Blanchard]

As hunts numbers show, there was a ton of 1 point applicants. We know MT allocates 75% of tags to the folks with the highest points and 25% of tags to the no point folks. Since most folks bought a point apparently, the odds ended up being better in the 25% tag pool.

The big question this year is will everyone not buy points because of these odds? Will people not buy points because they are now $100?  What effect will the line jumping by guided folks have on the tag pool? Let's not forget the volume of guys going into the draw with 2pts this year. 🤔

[jjhunter]

New this year also is you will lose your PP if you go consecutive years without applying. Previously you could buy points for 2 years without applying.

I don’t think that’s new….I lost mine a couple years ago when I didn’t apply?

prior to this year you would lose them on year 3. So you could buy two but if you didn't apply on year 3 you lost them.

Ok, that makes sense!  I was pissed off!   

[vandeman17]

As hunts numbers show, there was a ton of 1 point applicants. We know MT allocates 75% of tags to the folks with the highest points and 25% of tags to the no point folks. Since most folks bought a point apparently, the odds ended up being better in the 25% tag pool.

The big question this year is will everyone not buy points because of these odds? Will people not buy points because they are now $100?  What effect will the line jumping by guided folks have on the tag pool? Let's not forget the volume of guys going into the draw with 2pts this year. 🤔

I think it all adds up to less people drawing this year, especially those without an outfitter. Might see more local hunting pressure here in WA for all those that don't draw other states

[Karl Blanchard]

New this year also is you will lose your PP if you go consecutive years without applying. Previously you could buy points for 2 years without applying.

I don’t think that’s new….I lost mine a couple years ago when I didn’t apply?

prior to this year you would lose them on year 3. So you could buy two but if you didn't apply on year 3 you lost them.

Ok, that makes sense!  I was pissed off!   

I feel you there. I did it in WY many years ago. Still hurts to this day 😪

[jamesfromseattle]

Please forgive my elementary question, but I'm a little confused about how to count the number of preference points for the general licenses.

My understanding is that in Montana you can buy preference points the same year you apply. So if someone currently has one point (such as myself) they can buy another point and then put in for the 2022 drawing with 2 points? I.e. there are very good odds if you are only planning on hunting every other year.

And if you currently have 0 points, you can opt for the 0 points pool or the 1 point pool?

[Karl Blanchard]

Please forgive my elementary question, but I'm a little confused about how to count the number of preference points for the general licenses.

My understanding is that in Montana you can buy preference points the same year you apply. So if someone currently has one point (such as myself) they can buy another point and then put in for the 2022 drawing with 2 points? I.e. there are very good odds if you are only planning on hunting every other year.

And if you currently have 0 points, you can opt for the 0 points pool or the 1 point pool?

you are correct.

[Stein]

You can buy a point or not, Montana doesn't automatically give you one like other states.  If you have zero, don't check the box, you will always have zero.

I think it's going to backfire on them, less revenue when people stop buying the points.

There are other changes as well, most increasing costs which isn't a surprise.

[cougfan79]

Wouldn't last years numbers be a little skewed?  With the change in outfitter allocations didn't the state double available tags for one year only?  Seems to me that this year could be the first year under the new system that may provide a glimpse of future draw odds. 

If I can once again purchase a preference point at the time of application then I feel a little better because I currently have 1.  Was this a change under the new rules also, I thought they took away that option a while back and made you purchase said preference points July-Sept?

Aaron

[Karl Blanchard]

You've always been able to purchase a point at time of application OR from July 1-Sept 30.  The outfitter line skipping will begin this year.

[NRA4LIFE]

Can you purchase a point when applying and another after July 1?

[Karl Blanchard]

Can you purchase a point when applying and another after July 1?

no. Only 1 per license year.