2024 Washington Waterfowl Forecast - Off to a Slow Start?

[lovetogrouse]

Does anyone care to speculate on Washington's 2024 season?

According to Farmer's Almanac, temperatures in British Columbia and Alaska should be above average in September, so we should be off to a slow start.

https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/ca/5

https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/17

[lovetogrouse]

It looks like storms in British Columbia are expected to peak around the end of January:
https://snowbrains.com/farmers-almanac-winter-24-25-canada-forecast-substantial-snowfall-for-british-columbia-and-above-normal-for-eastern-tdhird/

[metlhead]

I'll specalize that regardless of weather, a lot of birds are gonna be rendered to bag, kinda like last seadon and prior. Like anyone I dig the big freezes for hittin the river or coast. However, I got a few plans for warm stagnant weather also. I do dislike the time change in November

[hdshot]

Does anyone care to speculate on Washington's 2024 season?

According to Farmer's Almanac, temperatures in British Columbia and Alaska should be above average in September, so we should be off to a slow start.

https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/ca/5

https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/17

Don’t know about weather but the WA waterfowl breeding survey for local ducks was reported poor at best.  On paper another good chance for a long slow year for us general public hunters. Good luck!

The Washington Breeding Waterfowl Population Survey shows the estimated duck population decreased by 22% from 2023, reaching an estimated 160,000, which is an 18% decrease from the LTA. Mallard populations decreased to 86,000, marking a 15% decrease from 2023 and 6% decrease from the LTA.

https://www.ducks.org/newsroom/2024-state-waterfowl-survey-results-and-roles-in-adaptive-harvest-management#:~:text=The%20Washington%20Breeding%20Waterfowl%20Population,6%25%20decrease%20from%20the%20LTA.

[mboyle0828]

It could be a bad year for hunting ducks if you sit inside.

https://www.ducks.org/conservation/waterfowl-surveys/2024-duck-numbers

[vandeman17]

If mallard numbers continue to slide, I would be fine putting in a daily bag limit on them to try and curb the decline. Sad part is that it will never happen because the big flooded corn operations won't let it.

[ducks4days]

"Washington state, particularly the Columbia Basin, continues to experience long-term drought. Crews have reported wetland habitat conditions that range from similar to poorer compared to previous years. In eastern Washington, several semi-permanent water bodies have dried up completely, shifting production potential to higher river valleys and pothole regions. Early reports from banding crews indicate only marginal production so far," says Kyle Spragens, WDFW Waterfowl Section Manager.

As always, diminishing rain is the big killer for mallards. Small bodies of water disappearing means thousands of instances of 1-2 clutches of ducklings removed from the potential population.

I have a lot of distrust of Kyle Spragens over the reactionary harlequin closure and multi-year delays in increasing snow goose limits. I'd like to see that trust be recovered, so that if or when mallard population drops result in lower bag limits I can at least know it was done with the best interest of the species in mind.

The article says mallard populations are down, but by a lower percentage than the overall duck numbers. I would love to see a breakdown of what species were hit the hardest, and if any are increasing. It is probably due to the warmer weather, but I noticed a ton of green wing teal the last 2 years hanging around the west side and potholes for pretty much the whole season, when normally they would push out of the area around November and pack into warmer spots in California.

Teal when done right eat really really well, but they are so small that they dont usually justify me harvesting them compared to other duck species unless its the last hour and my limit hasnt been reached. I think my approach would be different if, for example, the bag limit was decreased to 6 ducks but I was allowed 2 bonus Teal for a total of 8.

[metlhead]

I don't believe a reduced bag on mallards would do anything but create another obstacle to overcome in the field. Our sport is so massively over regulated by knee-jerk reaction and non-science emotion that many have left it. I meet them often. Compassionate tree huggers don't put ducks in the air. Passionate hunters with dollars do. A personal choice to reduce bag limits is wonderful.

[Platensek-po]

If mallard numbers continue to slide, I would be fine putting in a daily bag limit on them to try and curb the decline. Sad part is that it will never happen because the big flooded corn operations won't let it.

Mallard numbers are up 6% this year

[Platensek-po]

Does anyone care to speculate on Washington's 2024 season?

According to Farmer's Almanac, temperatures in British Columbia and Alaska should be above average in September, so we should be off to a slow start.

https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/ca/5

https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/17

Don’t know about weather but the WA waterfowl breeding survey for local ducks was reported poor at best.  On paper another good chance for a long slow year for us general public hunters. Good luck!

The Washington Breeding Waterfowl Population Survey shows the estimated duck population decreased by 22% from 2023, reaching an estimated 160,000, which is an 18% decrease from the LTA. Mallard populations decreased to 86,000, marking a 15% decrease from 2023 and 6% decrease from the LTA.

https://www.ducks.org/newsroom/2024-state-waterfowl-survey-results-and-roles-in-adaptive-harvest-management#:~:text=The%20Washington%20Breeding%20Waterfowl%20Population,6%25%20decrease%20from%20the%20LTA.

This is surprising. I don’t think I’ve ever read a negative post from you on waterfowl before.

[mboyle0828]

This is surprising. I don’t think I’ve ever read a negative post from you on waterfowl before.

 

[hdshot]

Does anyone care to speculate on Washington's 2024 season?

According to Farmer's Almanac, temperatures in British Columbia and Alaska should be above average in September, so we should be off to a slow start.

https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/ca/5

https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/17

Don’t know about weather but the WA waterfowl breeding survey for local ducks was reported poor at best.  On paper another good chance for a long slow year for us general public hunters. Good luck!

The Washington Breeding Waterfowl Population Survey shows the estimated duck population decreased by 22% from 2023, reaching an estimated 160,000, which is an 18% decrease from the LTA. Mallard populations decreased to 86,000, marking a 15% decrease from 2023 and 6% decrease from the LTA.

https://www.ducks.org/newsroom/2024-state-waterfowl-survey-results-and-roles-in-adaptive-harvest-management#:~:text=The%20Washington%20Breeding%20Waterfowl%20Population,6%25%20decrease%20from%20the%20LTA.

This is surprising. I don’t think I’ve ever read a negative post from you on waterfowl before.

Yep never negative but frustrated with the facts for sure.  Thank you for understanding what is really happening.

[hdshot]

This is surprising. I don’t think I’ve ever read a negative post from you on waterfowl before.

 

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[metlhead]

What is happening is mallards are up 8% from last year. Positive.

[wadu1]

Got this from DU Canada today,

[JBG]

Seems like we are talking about two different set of facts.  Local/WA State production of Mallards is down.  Nationally/NA Continent mallard numbers are up.  I doubt they will lower the limit based off of local duck production vs. total bird production.  If AK duck production cratered then it might happen.  I would love to see more people count cripples towards their daily bag but huge duck piles make smiles I guess.

[Feathernfurr]

Delta forecasted a top notch wigeon year for us, which I’m cool with, they may be my favorite birds to shoot.

[ducks4days]

Delta forecasted a top notch wigeon year for us, which I’m cool with, they may be my favorite birds to shoot.

Up 55% this year in NA. Fun birds and not bad eating.

[DeerThug]

My local ducks are almost non existent.  Compared to year before last lots of them.  Last year down ~80% ish.  This summer like none.  Im thinking bird flu??  Same with the Urasions was a lot now just a few.  Found dead song birds through the summer here and there.

[metlhead]

Seeing lots of teal today and pinners have started to arrive.

[wadu1]

Arrived this week about 75 wigeon on the golf course pond I drive by.

[hdshot]

What is happening is mallards are up 8% from last year. Positive.

Still doesn’t beat the 2022 survey which was a head scratcher for sure after that unbelievable mild winter for the most part. Plus the puddle ducks had to go farther north than normal and what I’m reading doesn’t paint a pretty picture on the hatch because production goes down up there the experts claim. We will see but not clicking my heels by any means.

[h2ofowlr]

I watched a video that brought some perspective into the forecast numbers by Fred Zink.  He mentioned in his perspective that they survey the same spots year after year.  These numbers are based off these surveys.  He also mentioned his perspective that he has seen birds shift.  Better feed, more water in other locations, develepment, fires, etc.  The forecast numbers may not fully represent what is truley fully represent the true numbers.   
Probably similar to what happens during the migration south when the big clubs with lots of corn ponds and feed start shifting the flyway from traditional wintering grounds.

[lovetogrouse]

Glad to see Green Winged Teal are doing well.

[mboyle0828]

Glad to see Green Winged Teal are doing well.

One of my favorite eating ducks. Small but delicious 

[metlhead]

Never noticed a diiference in taste. All seem to taste like bacon honey and garlic dipped in crab butter.

[metlhead]

Stop pouting

[Feathernfurr]

Took the duck boat out this morning for some scouting. Tons of teal, a lot of big ducks, couple of geese. Will definitely have seats in the boat this fall for interested folks.

[hdshot]

Stop pouting

But you said California and Oregon have no bearing. Your screenshot is way out of date.

[Big6bull]

It seems like every year a bunch of resources reporting contradicting information. It’s hard to know what’s accurate, what birds are just late etc.

[hdshot]

It seems like every year a bunch of resources reporting contradicting information. It’s hard to know what’s accurate, what birds are just late etc.

Not going to deny if anything is correct or not but these surveys that have been done for decades are about the only thing we have to look at this time of year. 

[h2ofowlr]

It seems like every year a bunch of resources reporting contradicting information. It’s hard to know what’s accurate, what birds are just late etc.

Not going to deny if anything is correct or not but these surveys that have been done for decades are about the only thing we have to look at this time of year.

Same survey, same locations, year after year.  Does it take change into factor?  Changes in breeding grounds, water, cultivation practices.  New grounds that maybe the birds shifted to?  Would be interesting to see more details.  Some areas are seeing a record numbers of birds where some are seeing a large decline.  What shifted?

[Platensek-po]

It seems like every year a bunch of resources reporting contradicting information. It’s hard to know what’s accurate, what birds are just late etc.

Not going to deny if anything is correct or not but these surveys that have been done for decades are about the only thing we have to look at this time of year.

Same survey, same locations, year after year.  Does it take change into factor?  Changes in breeding grounds, water, cultivation practices.  New grounds that maybe the birds shifted to?  Would be interesting to see more details.  Some areas are seeing a record numbers of birds where some are seeing a large decline.  What shifted?

Whoa. Listen man we are only here to talk about how bad the upcoming waterfowl season is going to be. Every year it gets worse and worse. I even have other people trying the hunt the 2 ducks that fly into my public land spot. Probably about a ratio of 15 hunters per duck now on public land. I think it would be best if everyone else just sat this season out. I’m not being negative tho, just realistic. There are simultaneously more hunters out there and a lack of recruitment for the sport cause the hunting has been so awful and basically just impossible. But you don’t have to take my word for it just look at all the threads on this very forum stating these facts.

[metlhead]

Agree. Headed back from an evening steelhead trip. Didn't stumble across a beaver dammed creek mouth that was choked with about 40 wooders and a few teal. A spot like that could be a great place for the youth opener. Too bad surveys are mixed and the only thing to look at this time of year. If drought hadn't destroyed the planet I'd take up golf

[h2ofowlr]

It seems like every year a bunch of resources reporting contradicting information. It’s hard to know what’s accurate, what birds are just late etc.

Not going to deny if anything is correct or not but these surveys that have been done for decades are about the only thing we have to look at this time of year.

Same survey, same locations, year after year.  Does it take change into factor?  Changes in breeding grounds, water, cultivation practices.  New grounds that maybe the birds shifted to?  Would be interesting to see more details.  Some areas are seeing a record numbers of birds where some are seeing a large decline.  What shifted?

Whoa. Listen man we are only here to talk about how bad the upcoming waterfowl season is going to be. Every year it gets worse and worse. I even have other people trying the hunt the 2 ducks that fly into my public land spot. Probably about a ratio of 15 hunters per duck now on public land. I think it would be best if everyone else just sat this season out. I’m not being negative tho, just realistic. There are simultaneously more hunters out there and a lack of recruitment for the sport cause the hunting has been so awful and basically just impossible. But you don’t have to take my word for it just look at all the threads on this very forum stating these facts.

I believe some locations directly feel the effects of the presence of duck clubs shifting the flyway or agriculture that maynot get harvested due weather conditions.  We have so many more clubs going in, in Skagit Valley and now they are all planting crops.  Corn, millet, potatoe field loaded with small potates that it holds the birds.  Bad weather may push them south, but as soon as it warms back they are back, reverse migration.  Same down in Monroe, Duvall - Snohomish Valley.  Just constant traffice and tons of clubs all planted with duck food.  You have specific locations really starting to hold and control how the birds migrate.  Not that there are less birds, they just have better options.  Go over to Eagle Lakes when the migrators are down.  It looks like a swarm.

[ducks4days]

It seems like every year a bunch of resources reporting contradicting information. It’s hard to know what’s accurate, what birds are just late etc.

Not going to deny if anything is correct or not but these surveys that have been done for decades are about the only thing we have to look at this time of year.

Same survey, same locations, year after year.  Does it take change into factor?  Changes in breeding grounds, water, cultivation practices.  New grounds that maybe the birds shifted to?  Would be interesting to see more details.  Some areas are seeing a record numbers of birds where some are seeing a large decline.  What shifted?

Whoa. Listen man we are only here to talk about how bad the upcoming waterfowl season is going to be. Every year it gets worse and worse. I even have other people trying the hunt the 2 ducks that fly into my public land spot. Probably about a ratio of 15 hunters per duck now on public land. I think it would be best if everyone else just sat this season out. I’m not being negative tho, just realistic. There are simultaneously more hunters out there and a lack of recruitment for the sport cause the hunting has been so awful and basically just impossible. But you don’t have to take my word for it just look at all the threads on this very forum stating these facts.

I believe some locations directly feel the effects of the presence of duck clubs shifting the flyway or agriculture that maynot get harvested due weather conditions.  We have so many more clubs going in, in Skagit Valley and now they are all planting crops.  Corn, millet, potatoe field loaded with small potates that it holds the birds.  Bad weather may push them south, but as soon as it warms back they are back, reverse migration.  Same down in Monroe, Duvall - Snohomish Valley.  Just constant traffice and tons of clubs all planted with duck food.  You have specific locations really starting to hold and control how the birds migrate.  Not that there are less birds, they just have better options.  Go over to Eagle Lakes when the migrators are down.  It looks like a swarm.

Dont bother learning to set up on the edges or along trafficking routes to the duck plantations. Dont go looking for the water they need to wash down all that grain. Theres no good hunting to be had while these places exist, so theres no point in calling up the 5 farms left in the valley that arent leased out, dont try getting access and dont scout to figure out where the birds go since they never leave these places once they put their feet down.

The migration is basically going to be nonexistent, just focus on deer and leave the ducks for the dumb ones out here who like being cold and wet and still chase them for some reason.

[metlhead]

Hey! I resemble those remarks

[h2ofowlr]

I don't have any issues finding and getting on birds.  Just responding to the poor me posts, no birds, declining, etc.  Birds are shifting and if you don't do the same and continue to hunt the same spot with no birds, you will continue getting the same outcome unless a weather pattern graces you will a few more for a breif period.
Until the state does something, big money clubs are going to continue to expand, plant more crops and harvest more birds.  Eagle lakes, they just have to bounce over to one of their warm water spring fed lakes and back to the feed.  They don't have to burn to much energy.  Lot of ponds and lakes in the triangle controlled by a few folks.

[metlhead]

Find a legal way to access those lakes if they are huntable

[ducks4days]

I don't have any issues finding and getting on birds.  Just responding to the poor me posts, no birds, declining, etc.  Birds are shifting and if you don't do the same and continue to hunt the same spot with no birds, you will continue getting the same outcome unless a weather pattern graces you will a few more for a breif period.
Until the state does something, big money clubs are going to continue to expand, plant more crops and harvest more birds.  Eagle lakes, they just have to bounce over to one of their warm water spring fed lakes and back to the feed.  They don't have to burn to much energy.  Lot of ponds and lakes in the triangle controlled by a few folks.

You were responding to a sarcastic chitpost. My comment was also a sarcastic chitpost.

The corn complexes and duck clubs running ag just to attract birds need new regulations to manage because they definitely do impact bird behavior on a large enough scale that can only be managed that way. They make massive changes to bird movement, and its worth looking at these changes and how they may impact population surveys that rely on birds returning to specific areas year after year (the birds arent gone just because they nested somewhere else).

Youre right, hunting and especially bird hunting is dynamic, and sitting in the same spot every year will result in rises and falls in harvest success that dont necessarily reflect the quality of hunting in the area as a whole. The same approach should be taken for these populations surveys.

[hdshot]

Waterfowl want traditional areas to nest for a reason for better production.  It was well documented this year’s breeding survey showed ducks had to go farther north, then unfortunately research show nest production tends to suffer.  Delta Waterfowl is starting a very aggressive project to get over 100k hen houses farther north outside of these traditional nesting areas to help the hatch in those poor productive areas. It’s not like ducks ended up on the face of the moon but if they did there is enough study to show trends.  These biologists are not just sitting around a camp fire brainstorming with each other on what to report in these surveys.