2024 Washington Waterfowl Forecast - Off to a Slow Start?

[lovetogrouse]

Does anyone care to speculate on Washington's 2024 season?

According to Farmer's Almanac, temperatures in British Columbia and Alaska should be above average in September, so we should be off to a slow start.

https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/ca/5

https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/17

[lovetogrouse]

It looks like storms in British Columbia are expected to peak around the end of January:
https://snowbrains.com/farmers-almanac-winter-24-25-canada-forecast-substantial-snowfall-for-british-columbia-and-above-normal-for-eastern-tdhird/

[metlhead]

I'll specalize that regardless of weather, a lot of birds are gonna be rendered to bag, kinda like last seadon and prior. Like anyone I dig the big freezes for hittin the river or coast. However, I got a few plans for warm stagnant weather also. I do dislike the time change in November

[hdshot]

Does anyone care to speculate on Washington's 2024 season?

According to Farmer's Almanac, temperatures in British Columbia and Alaska should be above average in September, so we should be off to a slow start.

https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/ca/5

https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/17

Don’t know about weather but the WA waterfowl breeding survey for local ducks was reported poor at best.  On paper another good chance for a long slow year for us general public hunters. Good luck!

The Washington Breeding Waterfowl Population Survey shows the estimated duck population decreased by 22% from 2023, reaching an estimated 160,000, which is an 18% decrease from the LTA. Mallard populations decreased to 86,000, marking a 15% decrease from 2023 and 6% decrease from the LTA.

https://www.ducks.org/newsroom/2024-state-waterfowl-survey-results-and-roles-in-adaptive-harvest-management#:~:text=The%20Washington%20Breeding%20Waterfowl%20Population,6%25%20decrease%20from%20the%20LTA.

[mboyle0828]

It could be a bad year for hunting ducks if you sit inside.

https://www.ducks.org/conservation/waterfowl-surveys/2024-duck-numbers

[vandeman17]

If mallard numbers continue to slide, I would be fine putting in a daily bag limit on them to try and curb the decline. Sad part is that it will never happen because the big flooded corn operations won't let it.

[ducks4days]

"Washington state, particularly the Columbia Basin, continues to experience long-term drought. Crews have reported wetland habitat conditions that range from similar to poorer compared to previous years. In eastern Washington, several semi-permanent water bodies have dried up completely, shifting production potential to higher river valleys and pothole regions. Early reports from banding crews indicate only marginal production so far," says Kyle Spragens, WDFW Waterfowl Section Manager.

As always, diminishing rain is the big killer for mallards. Small bodies of water disappearing means thousands of instances of 1-2 clutches of ducklings removed from the potential population.

I have a lot of distrust of Kyle Spragens over the reactionary harlequin closure and multi-year delays in increasing snow goose limits. I'd like to see that trust be recovered, so that if or when mallard population drops result in lower bag limits I can at least know it was done with the best interest of the species in mind.

The article says mallard populations are down, but by a lower percentage than the overall duck numbers. I would love to see a breakdown of what species were hit the hardest, and if any are increasing. It is probably due to the warmer weather, but I noticed a ton of green wing teal the last 2 years hanging around the west side and potholes for pretty much the whole season, when normally they would push out of the area around November and pack into warmer spots in California.

Teal when done right eat really really well, but they are so small that they dont usually justify me harvesting them compared to other duck species unless its the last hour and my limit hasnt been reached. I think my approach would be different if, for example, the bag limit was decreased to 6 ducks but I was allowed 2 bonus Teal for a total of 8.

[metlhead]

I don't believe a reduced bag on mallards would do anything but create another obstacle to overcome in the field. Our sport is so massively over regulated by knee-jerk reaction and non-science emotion that many have left it. I meet them often. Compassionate tree huggers don't put ducks in the air. Passionate hunters with dollars do. A personal choice to reduce bag limits is wonderful.

[Platensek-po]

If mallard numbers continue to slide, I would be fine putting in a daily bag limit on them to try and curb the decline. Sad part is that it will never happen because the big flooded corn operations won't let it.

Mallard numbers are up 6% this year

[Platensek-po]

Does anyone care to speculate on Washington's 2024 season?

According to Farmer's Almanac, temperatures in British Columbia and Alaska should be above average in September, so we should be off to a slow start.

https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/ca/5

https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/17

Don’t know about weather but the WA waterfowl breeding survey for local ducks was reported poor at best.  On paper another good chance for a long slow year for us general public hunters. Good luck!

The Washington Breeding Waterfowl Population Survey shows the estimated duck population decreased by 22% from 2023, reaching an estimated 160,000, which is an 18% decrease from the LTA. Mallard populations decreased to 86,000, marking a 15% decrease from 2023 and 6% decrease from the LTA.

https://www.ducks.org/newsroom/2024-state-waterfowl-survey-results-and-roles-in-adaptive-harvest-management#:~:text=The%20Washington%20Breeding%20Waterfowl%20Population,6%25%20decrease%20from%20the%20LTA.

This is surprising. I don’t think I’ve ever read a negative post from you on waterfowl before.

[mboyle0828]

This is surprising. I don’t think I’ve ever read a negative post from you on waterfowl before.

 

[hdshot]

Does anyone care to speculate on Washington's 2024 season?

According to Farmer's Almanac, temperatures in British Columbia and Alaska should be above average in September, so we should be off to a slow start.

https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/ca/5

https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/17

Don’t know about weather but the WA waterfowl breeding survey for local ducks was reported poor at best.  On paper another good chance for a long slow year for us general public hunters. Good luck!

The Washington Breeding Waterfowl Population Survey shows the estimated duck population decreased by 22% from 2023, reaching an estimated 160,000, which is an 18% decrease from the LTA. Mallard populations decreased to 86,000, marking a 15% decrease from 2023 and 6% decrease from the LTA.

https://www.ducks.org/newsroom/2024-state-waterfowl-survey-results-and-roles-in-adaptive-harvest-management#:~:text=The%20Washington%20Breeding%20Waterfowl%20Population,6%25%20decrease%20from%20the%20LTA.

This is surprising. I don’t think I’ve ever read a negative post from you on waterfowl before.

Yep never negative but frustrated with the facts for sure.  Thank you for understanding what is really happening.

[hdshot]

This is surprising. I don’t think I’ve ever read a negative post from you on waterfowl before.

 

pp=ygU7aWYgaSBjb3VsZCBzZWUgdGhlIHdvcmxkIHRocm91Z2ggdGhlIGV5ZXMgb2YgYSBjaGlsZCBseXJpY3M%3D

[metlhead]

What is happening is mallards are up 8% from last year. Positive.

[wadu1]

Got this from DU Canada today,